Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

OP with respect I don't disagree with much of what you say but I think you are missing the core point of my post. Yes I absolutely concur that Russians in the UK should stand up and speak up but my point is about British culture. 'Othering' of cultures and races is dangerous. It spreads easily and quickly morphs beyond what was intended. British people may not know whether the Russians living in their communities are 'goodies or baddies' but suddenly they are the foreigner at the end of the road. Societies quickly slip into casual xenophobia. If you keep foreigners out there's no risk of nasty people who do bad things. It's an ancient trope.

@Tigersonvaseline

Thanks down native.

Re obligations I thought we had provided lot's of training and weapons before the attack?

Were we obligated to do more and did the other countries help.

The United States has long claimed that the Budapest Memorandum isn't legally binding and that they consider it a political commitment. UK has a similar POV.

It's disingenuous.

However, the Ukrainians point out that the BM meets the criteria for the status of International Treaty as per the 1969 Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT) and is "an international agreement concluded between States in written form and governed by international law".

The part of the BM the Western signatories agreed to which they've failed to do is:

"Seek immediateSecurity Councilaction to provide assistance to Belarus, Kazakhstan or Ukraine if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used"."

The UN Security Council has provided no assistance. That means a lot more than what has happened, arguably.

@LondonMummer

OP with respect I don't disagree with much of what you say but I think you are missing the core point of my post. Yes I absolutely concur that Russians in the UK should stand up and speak up but my point is about British culture. 'Othering' of cultures and races is dangerous. It spreads easily and quickly morphs beyond what was intended. British people may not know whether the Russians living in their communities are 'goodies or baddies' but suddenly they are the foreigner at the end of the road. Societies quickly slip into casual xenophobia. If you keep foreigners out there's no risk of nasty people who do bad things. It's an ancient trope.

Hi @LondonMummer

Yes I don't disagree with anything you say there, and thank you for pushing back on me. I think you make a really good point. There have been a lot of powerful posts earlier on this thread by others on the extreme ignorance towards Eastern Europeans that is present in the UK. The UK has a decent number of BNP etc-types who are unlikely to read beyond a headline. I hope that at least the pro-Ukrainian sentiment might mean that the ignorance doesn't overflow too much. But you are right.

There are stupid people (or those with underlying agendas) who whip things up and that absolutely does need to be prevented, and you are right to point that out and fight back at me forcefully on this. I think you're correct here to point out my own position of privilege in talking on this, in that it's not something I easily imagine happening because amongst the people I know, this kind of lack of understanding of Russia vs Poland etc is not common.

But then as you point out the fact that we are having these discussions means we are already far, far better informed than the average man on the street. And I remember that paediatrician's house getting attacked in America (they thought it was the same as paedophile...)

So I take your point! it's a hard one. I would hate to think of any of my Russian friends (whose feelings on this make me look like a Putin snuggler) facing any kind of attacks or harm. But I would also at the same time absolutely expect them to do everything to oppose this.

Also on Russian culture as well: many of the great works in Russia are about the harm and death brought by their leaders. I think we need to see more of this put forward by Russians overseas. The problem in this situation is that while Russians as a whole are victims of Putin, they are also the ones keeping him in power and the majority still support him.

It's a genuine conversation that needs to be had

It is so brilliant to see the power of healthy debate, respect and real listening on MN for once.

I come from a perspective of experiencing threats or actual violence against Jews by those who have a problem with Israeli policy. When things escalate in the Middle East there are armed police on duty outside my local bakery. Our synagogues and schools require permanent security due to a conflation and misunderstanding of ethnicity, culture, race and religion.

Perhaps as a result I have a deep seated dread when it comes to othering of that which is 'foreign'.

As you say, the national mood of support towards Afghans and now Ukrainians should hopefully be something to celebrate.

Thanks OP. As others have said, by far the best thread on here for as long as I can remember.

paediatrician's house getting attacked in America (they thought it was the same as paedophile...)

That actually happened in Wales.

Paediatrician targeted after title taken for `paedophile'

Ignorant people are everywhere.

@MissConductUS

paediatrician's house getting attacked in America (they thought it was the same as paedophile...)

That actually happened in Wales.

Paediatrician targeted after title taken for `paedophile'

Ignorant people are everywhere.

Oh gosh wow! Sorry I only vaguely remembered the story, did not realise that was UK. Makes it even worse

Oh gosh wow! Sorry I only vaguely remembered the story, did not realise that was UK. Makes it even worse.

Why would it be worse because it happened in the UK?

Thanks down native.

With the worry over the Nuclear sites in Ukraine caused by the Russians I'm sure that could be argued to be an act of nuclear aggression.

What I can't understand is why they aren't bring more careful when Belarus is closer to the site than most of Ukraine itself the people of Belarus must be terrified??

London mummer I agree I hope this thread stays this way now

OP can you start part 2 When this runs out ( pretty please)

On the Russian supporting Putin theme.,I still argue it's impossible to tell.

The only way to know is by allowing the Russian people a free and fair vote. That has been denied to them for many years .
Only if in a free and fair vote could we say yay or nay

Op what are your thoughts on the Americans putting the breaks on the Polish mig fighters going into Ukraine? Are NATO being overly risk averse or is this a wise decision?

@Tigersonvaseline

Re Germany, this is one of my big concerns.

The EU's beating heart is : Germany.

The economic power house. It's why I was raising concerns earlier about being cut off from Russia's gas.
Apparently it's army is in a dreadful run down state but I imagine in this situation it could mobilise quite quickly ?
And it's better for everyone if it can.
But how can it,if it's starved of petrol?
If Germany suffers like this the whole EU is at Risk.

Hiya, on Germany: there is a lot to say here and I actually can't believe how little we have discussed it!

To give a bit of background that may be useful: post war (specifically post reunification) the US has seen Germany as a key player in securing the defence of Europe. There was a bit of jealousy at times from the UK on how the US would centre them so strongly. The US was keen for Germany, with its great economic and manufacturing might, to essentially take over much of the pressures the US had.

The US have therefore been urging Germany to take defence seriously, for decades. And it has been a failure. Germany (under Merkel in particular) almost denied the existence of a security aspect to foreign affairs, valuing only trade. This is clearly a gross oversimplification obviously. But Germany's notion of its position in Europe was securing peace and prosperity through trade, including by becoming heavily reliant on Russia. To the point of planning aspects of their economy around Russian exports.

Obviously, shit hit the fan last week and Germany has had one hell of a wake-up call. Their policy not only failed to ensure peace but actively emboldened Putin.

For Germany to (a) reduce their reliance on Russia (b) allow countries to supply German-manufactured weaponry to Ukraine and (c) actually give weaponry to Ukraine themselves was historic. And for Germany an utterly tidal shift.

HOWEVER (in my view) it is not far enough. While it's a huge shift, Germany continues to be a voice in Europe that argues against further sanctions. I think a big part of this is that the complacency continues. They're not the ones on the border with Russia, they're not the ones that are going to be actively threatened anytime soon.

I (again my opinion) think very strongly that Germany need to recognise this as the potentially existential threat to the European project that it is. States like Poland cannot shoulder the burden of the Russian danger when they are least equipped to do so, and also Germany is very much responsible for helping to create this risk. So (again my opinion) I think it is actually a bit pathetic for a country like Germany to hide behind Poland and seek to so strongly contain any economic shocks to itself.

I don't think Germany would be militarily central to the defence of Europe (my opinion though, would be interested for alternative perspectives). BUT I do think it's position of blocking stronger economic action against Russia is undermining the security of Europe.

@workisnotawolf

MacDonalds is actually really popular in Russia so don’t underestimate the effect on the ordinary Russian: www.businessinsider.com/mcdonalds-in-russia-versus-united-states-photos-menu-2019-7?amp In the 1990s, many Russians would go on dates to MacDonalds and queue.

The cynic in me says though what would stop the Russian government continuing those restaurants though even if the foreign corporation supposedly closes the restaurants. Surely Russian staff will have keys and can get some supplies in.

An interesting point about McDonalds is the incredible cultural power it holds in Russia and in foreign policy:

E.g. the McDonalds Peace Theory: that no two countries with a McDonalds would ever go to war (ah to be alive in those innocent days...):
foreignpolicy.com/2020/11/26/mcdonalds-peace-nagornokarabakh-friedman/

And the symbolism of when Russia got their first McDonalds: a symbol of a new richer, happier world:
www.moneycontrol.com/news/trends/current-affairs-trends/as-mcdonalds-exits-russia-a-look-at-the-day-when-soviet-union-got-its-first-big-mak-8210671.html

@LondonMummer

It is so brilliant to see the power of healthy debate, respect and real listening on MN for once.

I come from a perspective of experiencing threats or actual violence against Jews by those who have a problem with Israeli policy. When things escalate in the Middle East there are armed police on duty outside my local bakery. Our synagogues and schools require permanent security due to a conflation and misunderstanding of ethnicity, culture, race and religion.

Perhaps as a result I have a deep seated dread when it comes to othering of that which is 'foreign'.

As you say, the national mood of support towards Afghans and now Ukrainians should hopefully be something to celebrate.

Thanks OP. As others have said, by far the best thread on here for as long as I can remember.

Thanks, I'm really enjoying this perspective and it's very helpful to hear more of it.

I think I can be guilty of looking at this situation with such a sense of urgency and from such a military/foreign policy perspective that it's easy to forget to look at how the fallout can hit people in the medium term.

Without wanting to derail the thread with going into Israel etc too much your background is probably one of the best examples of this, not least because it is one where you see even very well educated and informed people often slip into this kind of mode. It's particularly frustrating when it happens because not only does it harm/end lives, it's a large part of why that conflict is so intractable.

With regards to what I have seen so far on anti-Russian sentiment: I think it has been significant that figures like Farage on the right and the far left types (e.g. Stop the War) who normally whip up this kind of racist frenzy are actually pro-Putin. Which is possibly the only time I can think of that they've seen a foreigner they don't want to bash. I'm thinking then (perhaps naively) that this kind of sentiment won't filter down too much to the usual suspects. I think that's part of the reason why I have been complacent about this, but you make a really good point that it is something that needs to be taken seriously.

It's not an area of policy I actually know anything about to be frank, so those who do, please keep the perspectives coming!!

@Tigersonvaseline

OP can you start part 2 When this runs out ( pretty please)

@Tigersonvaseline when would I need to do that, I know they fill up at some point but I'm not sure when?

Americans putting the breaks on the Polish mig fighters going into Ukraine? Are NATO being overly risk averse or is this a wise decision?

Can I clarify this, the Americans were lobbying Poland to deliver the MIGs directly to Ukraine and tried to wash their hands off it. UK's Defence Minister washed off hid hands too yesterday saying that would be Poland's decision not NATO.

Poland is not against helping Ukraine so US didn't put brakes on MIGs going there.

Polish PM Morawiecki rightly stated that this decision would've to be made by NATO that Poland is part of. So Poland offered to deliver them to the US-NATO base in Germany for disposal - so that with NATO's approval they can go to Ukraine. In exchange for the F16s to be delivered to that same base for Poland by the US.

But suddenly the US is uncomfortable with doing what it advocated Poland does. Funny that.

I think this is a mistake personally and lack of unity threatens the strength of NATO from Russian POV especially. But then, perhaps @DownNative could shed more light, maybe it's been done on purpose and there's more to it, whereas I'm failing to read between the lines here.

@WhatsGoingOn2022 they're limited to 1000 posts so you need to start a new thread just before it gets there :-)

@forinborin

OP, thank you for this thread. I have close connections to the region myself and your thread is certainly the most informed on MN since it all started. I have noticed in the recent days that there seems to be a massive wave of recent political emigration from Russia, mainly middle class people and families, with a strong flavour of 1917 repeating itself. Do you think this is a signal that a new iron curtain (in some sense) is about to fall imminently? Or just an anecdotal blip in my own circles?

@forinborin I've seen similar reports and cases myself, at this point there's a lot of anecdotal evidence more so than any real study of it. But I don't think it's false or tiny numbers, I think at this point it is just very hard to track because people aren't (naturally) speaking about it loudly, plus they are not taking straightforward routes out. I think it's something that will take a while to fully confirm is happening on a decent scale, but that I have few doubts about. Al Jazeera and others are reporting on this.

This probably links in well to @LondonMummer 's point about receiving Russian dissidents well: I hope these people, many of whom took stands against Putin, are able to get support too. I suspect a great many of them also have Ukrainian relatives or friends.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/8/we-are-refugees-russians-flee-rising-authoritarianism

www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/03/people-leaving-russia-ukraine-war

[quote MagicFox]@WhatsGoingOn2022 they're limited to 1000 posts so you need to start a new thread just before it gets there :-)[/quote]
Ah perfect thanks! I'll keep an eye out

I've seen some awful news over the last few hours, just to prepare anyone who is planning to watch any coverage this evening. Russia have targeted a children's hospital and maternity ward in Mariupol, apparently with significant casualties.

Could we maybe agree to put an all caps WARNING ahead of any posts talking about this or linking to it, am putting a bit of a special status on this as I know it will be way way too close to home for many of the readers on this site.

The only thing I will say on this, or that you have to know: it's not accidental. It's an intentional move from Russia's Syria playbook.

WARNING

Just saw the news about the hospital. Shocked to see it was deliberate.

WARNING - MARIUPOL

I have feared this for a couple of days now, my huge, huge concern has been that the people of Mariupol would be treated with particular cruelty as an example of what might happen to the rest of Ukrainians who resist. Tragically this is proving to be true. There are no words. Without virtue signalling, I am appalled and sobbing here. I don't believe for a second any parent or any decent person can sit back and watch this without being shaken up. I don't know what else to say.

What is happening in Mariupol is utterly sickening. I can't believe there are 400,000 people currently being held hostage. I'm sure we have to do more.

Sorry if this has already been asked and answered, I’m behind but I’ve just remembered again (and I keep forgetting when I’ve caught up)

The sumy humanitarian corridor has been successful. Is that likely to be because lots of the students who needed to get out where Indian/African? And India nor Africa countries haven’t said anything against him?