Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

@Snog

OP I'd love it if you could stop typing things with a line through them. I find it difficult to read text like this and am not clear on why the point of it is either. I'm interested in your posts but I struggle to read them because of this.

This was addressed earlier. Op was doing it inadvertently, just her typing style.

[quote Aristalese]@Onlywomengivebirth

You are correct. Russia today confirmed that the only safe humanitarian corridors for civilian evacuation from Ukraine will be to Russia and Belarus.

In other words, jumping off a frying pan into a fire.

Ukrainians staying in Ukraine are facing genocide. Ukrainians escaping to Russia or Belarus either the same fate or at best discrimination and repressions.[/quote]
They really take playing dirty to a whole other level.

@DownNative - it is a chat site for parents primarily - stop with your disingenuous hints of soundbite “disinformation” against us mere mortals trying to learn from those who have a bit more knowledge of history, although of course everyone will be somewhat biased.
You clearly did not grow up in a German speaking country in the 80s and 90s where the embarrassment of the Nazi regime was pretty much the focus of most German and history lessons for much of secondary school.

As flattering as it is, we are not Russian bots or double agents! So don’t alienate the common person for asking questions, it is unhelpful and condescending and who are you anyway? If you are so informed why not post in your real name? Or link us to your Twitter Account.

@Snog

OP I'd love it if you could stop typing things with a line through them. I find it difficult to read text like this and am not clear on why the point of it is either. I'm interested in your posts but I struggle to read them because of this.

Thus has been discussed and explained already. It’s a formatting issue on some phones. I don’t see any strike-throughs.

What is happening with the 40 mile long line of tanks that have not moved?

@Cookiecrumble22 this was answered earlier on.

Senior commanders were sent to the front of the convoy as they were running out of supplies, but they were then killed by snipers, meaning the front section is now stuck and blocking all behind it.

As this means they're not now an immediate threat, Ukraine is just leaving them alone. I hope I've paraphrased that correctly.

@Onlywomengivebirth yes unfortunately these dirty tactics are a standard Russian army ploy. They are so repulsive it is hard to even read about them.

I made a post earlier setting out some of the background of what they did in Syria, Chechnya and other places to specifically target civilians and aid workers. We've seen footage of the intentional targeting of journalists so far in Ukraine too, as well as unconfirmed reports of the army trying to round up people onto buses. It's beyond inhumane.

One thing I will add: Russia has done these terrible things for years and while they have been condemned it is only now that we are seeing momentum behind stopping this barbarity. Grozny and Syria should have been the red lines. Unfortunately they weren't, and that is why Ukraine is being victimised.

I had a horrible cry earlier this week when I saw footage of Syrian children in refugee camps holding up posters in support for Ukraine, saying they knew exactly what Ukrainians are going through. I have no shame in admitting this, nor do I think this shows any 'bias.' It's part of the reason why I get so animated when people come out with the silly whataboutery saying that people didn't care about other war crimes, the US did this, etc. Knowing people personally affected by these earlier crimes I can say that the absolute last thing any of them would want would be for further crimes to be excused, and for their suffering to be used as the excuse. It's like someone in 1945 refusing to talk about the Holocaust because what about the Belgians in the Congo. Typically from someone who doesn't care about either.

I'm reminded of this Oz Katerji post (he is on the ground in Ukraine now): Personally I think if your only public reaction to one terrible conflict is “double standards, what about this other terrible conflict”, that to me suggests that you don’t actually give a damn about either of those conflicts.

twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1498071379215794179

Hey, OP. You mentioned early on that China aren’t getting as involved as they may have had this happened after the Olympic. The whole sports washing thing. If that’s the case, then why has Putin invaded now? Why didn’t he wait until after the Olympics so he could have had more support from China?

[quote workisnotawolf]@DownNative - it is a chat site for parents primarily - stop with your disingenuous hints of soundbite “disinformation” against us mere mortals trying to learn from those who have a bit more knowledge of history, although of course everyone will be somewhat biased.
You clearly did not grow up in a German speaking country in the 80s and 90s where the embarrassment of the Nazi regime was pretty much the focus of most German and history lessons for much of secondary school.

As flattering as it is, we are not Russian bots or double agents! So don’t alienate the common person for asking questions, it is unhelpful and condescending and who are you anyway? If you are so informed why not post in your real name? Or link us to your Twitter Account.[/quote]
On the contrary, it was Letmesleep123 I said was posting disinformation.

Not yourself workisnotawolf.

That said, I did actually grow up in West Germany and, as a Pads Brat, am very aware of how the Allied Forces ensured West Germany, and later reunified Germany, could not militarily dominate Europe again via the measures I've outlined.

As I said before, my area of knowledge is terrorism, security and counterterrorism. There is no way any Western power will ever rely on "embarrassment" in order to restrain countries such as Germany, Russia or other rogue states.

If they can, they'll put measures in place ranging from partition through to having military bases.

Another restraint on Germany is the fact the Allies do NOT allow Germany to have chemical, biological or nuclear weapons.

This is the reality of Western attempts to ensure global security. But there is no chance of any of these measures being put on Russia.

By force or agreement.

@workisnotawolf That's a really interesting post. I have German friends who also grew up in the 80s (I take it you've meant yourself?) and we've never talked about how Nazi Germany was portrayed in their schools actually. So thank you for sharing this. Sorry, I don't mean to derail the thread, I just wanted to say this to you as your post made me pause.

On the main topic, there is an interesting thread on Twitter by the former Russian foreign minister which Sky News is reporting on on the main breaking news feed, alas I'm too thick to link it and am not on Twitter myself. @WhatsGoingOn2022 perhaps you've come across this by now too and could link up? This is for those posters who shared the view that Russia is/was concerned about NATO expansion and its own borders, as well as for those posters who are particularly concerned about the risk of nuclear war, it addresses all of the main points.

@LittleSnakes

Hey, OP. You mentioned early on that China aren’t getting as involved as they may have had this happened after the Olympic. The whole sports washing thing. If that’s the case, then why has Putin invaded now? Why didn’t he wait until after the Olympics so he could have had more support from China?

Hi! Sorry will clarify on this a bit: the western intelligence is that Putin was asked by Beijing to delay until after the winter Olympics, which they did (Winter Olympics ended 20 February). The 'special military operation' launched properly on the 24th Feb. So he actually did coordinate with them on timing here to Beijing's liking, and actually to his detriment: if you are ever going to invade a country like Ukraine do it when the land is cold and hard, so you can off-road more easily. If you look into the impact of mud on USSR invasions it's incredible what an influence this has had.

China were never intending to give support in terms of military or front line help. For many reasons that would have been a terrible idea, not least because you can imagine how Europe would respond to see Chinese military trying to conquer a part of Europe. However China have been reeling from the strength of the response to Russia's actions, and while they remain a close ally of Russia the dynamics there do seem to be shifting, at least in the eyes of some commentators. Their position is more equivocal than Russia expected: basically you can find evidence on both sides here of them condemning and supporting. Which is pretty unexpected. Overall they still back Russia and there is some excellent analysis of this upthread by DownNative.

On this one there is no easy or clear answer, there's a lot out there in terms of analysis if you want to look into it more deeply. Chinese foreign and defence policy is not an easy topic, their entire conception of these areas is different to the western or Cold War analysis.

www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/vladimir-putin-russia-liz-truss-kremlin-sky-news-b985129.html

The link from Sky News. The risk of a at least tactical battlefield nuclear weapons being used seems credible enough to me and yes this does scare me.

Thanks, OP. I hadn’t quite followed the olympics and thought they were still coming up!! 4 days isn’t long after at all. The mud info is interesting.

@1dayatatime

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/vladimir-putin-russia-liz-truss-kremlin-sky-news-b985129.html

The link from Sky News. The risk of a at least tactical battlefield nuclear weapons being used seems credible enough to me and yes this does scare me.

First of all, this is from Standard News.

Secondly, this is not the Sky News link I've referred to, please do not misrepresent it.

Here are the screenshots:

OK - my apologies @DownNative!

As a common non qualified person, my observation at the moment is that the “experts” are openly stating that nuclear threat from Putin/Russia is negligible and those raising it have fallen for propaganda/are not well educated. Unfortunately, the common man has on many occasions, most recently with Brexit, observed the experts being wrong.
I fully believe in deescalation and I have full faith in the British navy, military and counterterrorism services. However, I am somewhat concerned that we have had no communications whatsoever from local councils or our government of what to do in an emergency situation. We don’t even have bunkers or cellars etc. I can only hope there is some preemptive preparation going on to protect us somewhat/somehow in the unlikely eventuality. And that all those policies are up to date, unlike our pandemic policies.

@1dayatatime

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/vladimir-putin-russia-liz-truss-kremlin-sky-news-b985129.html

The link from Sky News. The risk of a at least tactical battlefield nuclear weapons being used seems credible enough to me and yes this does scare me.

The article does not imply that use of nuclear weapons is likely.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace attempted to pour cold water on fears of a nuclear war, stating that while he understood the concerns, the phrasing is a “battle of rhetoric”.

We know Russia has nuclear weapons. This is not news.

Hi OP. Thank you for your time and effort in creating this thread, very much appreciated.

My question is this. Is Putin more than an Imperialist and is he actually a man on God's mission to restore Russia's divine destiny? Personally, this is the pinnacle of my concern.

@workisnotawolf

I fully understand the fear. Believe me, the fear hits all of us, I don't sleep at night worrying about my own family, with or without nuclear threat. They aren't sleeping either.

But.

We have to remain rational in this. As you say it is very unlikely. Having said that, I personally agree with you that preparations should be made internationally just in case and advice should be given to civilians. The sad reality is that this threat will always hang above the world, in this conflict and in any future. We can't live in fear all the time and we can't as a result not stand up for the victims and allow a complete laissez-faire from any country with nuclear weapons. We ought to know how to prepare though, that I agree with. I believe the UK Gov doesn't want to create a sense of panic. But as this thread shows, lack of preparedness is often the main reason for people's fear so there are two sides to it.

Just on this: Unfortunately, the common man has on many occasions, most recently with Brexit, observed the experts being wrong

Please don't forget that experts weren't followed when it comes to Brexit because one of its key premises was that the UK 'has had enough of experts'. I am not going to get into a Brexit discussion on here, I'm just trying to say that various expert views are being carefully considered in this conflict, unlike in the case of Brexit.

corporate.exxonmobil.com/News/Newsroom/News-releases/2022/0301_ExxonMobil-to-discontinue-operations-at-Sakhalin-1_make-no-new-investments-in-Russia

For somebody who believes in Russian supremacy, Putin still seems to be relying heavily on western technology, equipment and skill to access its natural resources.

He also seems happy to allow Russian wealth to leave the country.

@workisnotawolf

OK - my apologies *@DownNative*!

As a common non qualified person, my observation at the moment is that the “experts” are openly stating that nuclear threat from Putin/Russia is negligible and those raising it have fallen for propaganda/are not well educated. Unfortunately, the common man has on many occasions, most recently with Brexit, observed the experts being wrong.
I fully believe in deescalation and I have full faith in the British navy, military and counterterrorism services. However, I am somewhat concerned that we have had no communications whatsoever from local councils or our government of what to do in an emergency situation. We don’t even have bunkers or cellars etc. I can only hope there is some preemptive preparation going on to protect us somewhat/somehow in the unlikely eventuality. And that all those policies are up to date, unlike our pandemic policies.

Yes to the experts initial response to the pandemic!! If Covid had been a worse disease than it was… I say that as one who works in healthcare.

Interesting thread. I’ve learned a lot.

Strongly think that all angles should be listened to and addressed - no suppression please. That’s how people learn.

@workisnotawolf

OK - my apologies *@DownNative*!

As a common non qualified person, my observation at the moment is that the “experts” are openly stating that nuclear threat from Putin/Russia is negligible and those raising it have fallen for propaganda/are not well educated. Unfortunately, the common man has on many occasions, most recently with Brexit, observed the experts being wrong.
I fully believe in deescalation and I have full faith in the British navy, military and counterterrorism services. However, I am somewhat concerned that we have had no communications whatsoever from local councils or our government of what to do in an emergency situation. We don’t even have bunkers or cellars etc. I can only hope there is some preemptive preparation going on to protect us somewhat/somehow in the unlikely eventuality. And that all those policies are up to date, unlike our pandemic policies.

Hi @workisnotawolf in your case I don't see any attempt to intentionally spread disinformation and I don't think anyone has accused you of that.

On the nuclear issues I am very happy to have a sensible and fact-based discussion around the topic but I want to make it clear that the Russian government is intentionally trying to stir up this panic domestically in Britain and elsewhere in order to undermine action against Russia. Unfortunately some other people on threads across MumsNet are directly playing into the hands of Kremlin propaganda on this, through pro-Russian voices sitting this up. In many cases across this site (to be clear not at all in your case) I do believe it to be intentional and not an accident.

This is why I would urge calm and I will point to resources later that are places to look for real information on the topic.

@merrymouse

corporate.exxonmobil.com/News/Newsroom/News-releases/2022/0301_ExxonMobil-to-discontinue-operations-at-Sakhalin-1_make-no-new-investments-in-Russia

For somebody who believes in Russian supremacy, Putin still seems to be relying heavily on western technology, equipment and skill to access its natural resources.

He also seems happy to allow Russian wealth to leave the country.

Yes you touch on a very good point there: the Russian economy is heavily globalised. I pointed earlier to Hitler's policy of autarky (in essence economic self reliance) as the basis for his ability to conduct war so successfully. Russia lacks this ability when the world switches off the tap of money and supplies.

This is why these sanctions have the potential to be so powerful.

On letting Russian wealth leave the country: the economy is being hit so hard that Russia have introduced controls in the last few days to try to prevent people leaving the country with significant sums of money. Again luckily for us much of Russia's wealth (both in terms of the government itself, and in terms of its key leaders) is actually held overseas and therefore easy to freeze.

The extent of Russia's international exposure is hard to overestimate. The one thing with the potential to undermine it is if countries like China and India seek to help make up the shortfall. That's where diplomacy and hard talk come in.

This is why I would urge calm and I will point to resources later that are places to look for real information on the topic

I absolutely agree that we should all be calm. I also agree that we should all vet and thoroughly verify sources of information.

This seems to be a helpful place to find advice on how best to sift through what may be genuine and what may not be.

twitter.com/i/events/1498457150506426368

@Hillsmakeyoustrong

Hi OP. Thank you for your time and effort in creating this thread, very much appreciated.

My question is this. Is Putin more than an Imperialist and is he actually a man on God's mission to restore Russia's divine destiny? Personally, this is the pinnacle of my concern.

That's an interesting one. I actually don't know much about Putin's personal religious views, however he has successfully been using religion as a tool to promote these views and there are certainly commentators who see religion as central to his imperialist notions (have linked below). The church in Russia has been a powerful tool for Putin, with Russian religious leaders having close Kremlin links and promoting it in the name of their faith. I tend to be slightly sceptical of any claims that Putin genuinely believes his own religious pronouncements, due to the long history of authoritarian leaders using it like this, basally mixing it in with an authoritarian leader into a cult-like message. But it's a core part of his control over Russia and message to the people. So I'll stay on the fence on that one, but would welcome more analysis from you or others who look into it!

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/06/vladimir-putin-a-miracle-defender-of-christianity-or-the-most-evil-man

www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2022-03-05/russias-menacing-mix-religion-and-nuclear-weapons

I'll write up some information and analysis on nuclear weaponry later in the day when I have the time.

One point I want to make briefly though: when people talk about 'nuclear weapons' or Chernobyl etc there is a wide range of different things with vastly different impacts under that umbrella. The lack of public clarity on this is due to a couple of factors:

FIRSTLY it is a very technical subject. Many people are seeing the word 'nuclear weapons' and it's triggering thinking like end of the world, etc. That's not helpful. A good starting point would be for people to look at the difference between Tactical Nuclear Weapons (TNWs) vs Strategic Nuclear Weapons.

TNWs are small targeted nuclear bombs that don't cause significant wider issues. Experts are discussing whether Russia might use these on Ukraine, alongside chemical weapons (as they supplied to Syria) and Thermobaric weapons (which they are using in Ukraine). To be absolutely clear, this would be horrendous in Ukraine but not affect us at all. If you see these mentioned, please do not start panicking and thinking apocalypse. We are talking war crimes not end of the world.

Strategic nuclear weapons such as Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are what the general public would actually consider to be 'nukes'. This is a really crucial distinction and part of why I would urge calm and urge people to look into this distinction before 'nuclear weapons' get thrown around as an issue.

SECONDLY Russian propaganda is intentionally using this threat (and their knowledge of the hysterical response it achieves) as a tool to divide the west. I will post in detail later about this. Ukraine has also made statements about the potential of fallout from their nuclear plants that are designed to promote fear in Europe, while not being correct on a technical level.

I'll try to locate good sources on all of this. What I will continue to say though is please do not panic or spread messages you have not read into, it is deeply counterproductive.