Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

I agree @ClaudineClare

@ClaudineClare

It depends on what you propose as an alternative.

If partitioning Ukraine and/or other neighbouring countries then it certainly is proKremlin because this is precisely what they wish to achieve through this war. It is also blatantly against the interests of Ukrainian people and any other affected nations as they will be heavily repressed by the Russians and their lives will turn into hell.

If you have a different idea on how this may end then let's discuss it and it may very well not be proKremlin.

The principle of not wanting this war and hoping it will end soon is shared by me. The difference between us is that I will not support this at a cost yet again to Ukrainians and my own country just because the West might again prefer it as an easier option - to them. And it is easier because it benefits and appeases Russia.

Is there a list of companies it would be helpful for us to boycott? Sorry I'm not on Twitter and I think i've read most of this thread but sorry if that's already been covered. I know you'd mentioned coke and costa already.

@Coffeeiwish In terms of other companies that refuse to pull out, McDonald's is another one as it stands.

In terms of businesses with Russian ownership or strong links to Russia, perhaos somewhat surprisingly:

www.google.com/amp/s/www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-10570825/amp/Oligarch-forced-step-board-Holland-Barrett-owner.html

I don't think there's a list at the moment because the situation is changing rapidly and more and more pull out of Russia and Belarus, but I will update if I come across more. Thank you for asking.

@coffeeiwish

Is there a list of companies it would be helpful for us to boycott? Sorry I'm not on Twitter and I think i've read most of this thread but sorry if that's already been covered. I know you'd mentioned coke and costa already.

At the moment I think it's pretty much Coca Cola and Danone who are still problematic, the vast majority of others have done so

@ThroughThickAndThin01

I have seen mentioned several times that the sanctions the west is imposing will make things impossible for Russia by June. Does that mean Ukraine and Zelensky has to hold out for at least 3 months? That seems daunting!

Yes if the leaks are accurate, Russian internal calculations are that by then the war will literally be financially impossible. The best way to speed it up would be to drop/ban Russian energy imports, which is under discussion in some countries but a huge deal as it will whack the US and European economies, potentially even causing a global recession. It's basically the economic nuclear option.

I do think there is a possibility that Russia might fold economically ahead of this however. I wouldn't state that with strong confidence, but Russia has state debt payments due which it looks like it won't be able to pay, and so far they have been outmanouvered in attempts to rebalance the economy.

But yes I think Ukraine sadly would need to hold out for a couple of months at the very least. Possibly considerably longer. However it's interesting to note that even in the areas that Russia has allegedly 'captured' there is significant civilian resistance on the ground that means they require significant troops to hold the area, and don't hold it with much actual control. This will greatly slow their advance

Hi all, we've removed a few posts that are in danger of derailing the thread by moving into personal attack territory. Please could you address the points made and not the person - and do report anything further - we're always fine to take a look.

A common Kremlin disinformation for propaganda purposes is the claim NATO promised Russia they wouldn't expand eastwards.

There was never any agreement between NATO and Russia that NATO would not expand.

Russia's former leader, Mikhail Gorbachev said inan interviewin 2014:

"The topic of 'NATO expansion' was not discussed at all, and it wasn't brought up in those years. I say this with full responsibility. Not a single Eastern European country raised the issue, not even after the Warsaw Pact ceased to exist in 1991. Western leaders didn't bring it up, either."

Bill Clinton refused Russia's Boris Yeltsin's 'gentleman's agreement' NATO wouldn't expand in 1997:

"I can't make commitments on behalf of NATO, and I'm not going to be in the position myself of vetoing NATO expansion with respect to any country, much less letting you or anyone else do so…NATO operates by consensus."

@Fieldofflowers22

I've been following this thread with interest and it's very informative and has actually cleared up a few things for me but then you go on and make a comment like this "This is why I get so enraged by attempts to compare what Russia does and is doing with other western countries at war. While the US and others have committed provable war crimes, unless you go back as far as Korea it's hard to find examples of them being so planned and intentional and on such a scale. The Kremlin's army is a whole other level of barbarity" and this enraged me. Russia (and others) has done exactly the same thing in other countries; the same sneaky planned out vile things that are happening in Ukraine. The only difference is that all that has been done silently without other countries showing solidarity and exposing them.

Hi! Sorry yes I saw that my post wasn't entirely clear: I wasn't trying to say Russia has not committed these crimes before, I was saying the opposite. That there is a Kremlin army playbook that involves the dirtiest and most reprehensible tactics, which we have seen in Chechnya and Syria, and now in Ukraine. The post I made on the last page sought to show this somewhat by just compiling a list of what they did before and showing that what they are doing in Ukraine is not an accident but an intentional plan.

@ClaudineClare

Aristalese is it pro-Kremlin to not want this war to escalate into a full on war between the West and Russia? That is what it comes down to for me and if that is a pro-Kremlin view, or if I am playing into the Kremlin's hands by having that view, then so be it.

Thank you

Russia for decades acted in exactly the same way as Nazi Germany, read up about Katyń, Siberian gułags post WW2, just to offer immediate examples. So they have no traction whatsoever with this false argument

This.

@madbadrad

Brilliant information thread thanks, Op! I have a question that goes off on a tangent but am wondering what this could mean for the Balkan? In particular Milorad Dosis and BiH.

It's not a topic I can claim to have great knowledge about but it's definitely a very scary time for Bosnia & Herzegovina. Both in terms of where they are geographically and what their neighbours are now up to.

Moldova is explicitly in the path of Putin, as per Belarus's map of their war plans (published on state tv). And Georgia have their own recent history of Russian invasion. Kosovo has asked for NATO membership this week due to their fears. Serbia has also seen some pro-Russia protests within the last week.

While on paper Bosnia wants NATO membership in the future, the pro-Kremlin groupings likes Milorad Dodik are working around the clock to stop this happening and draw the state closer to Putin. I haven't seen any significant insight into whether the last week has started to change that or undermine the influence of Kremlin propaganda in the area.

I think one fascinating thing about the falling of the Russian economy is that all of the puppets they paid for will now start to go unpaid. We could see a surprisingly large number of people no longer willing to back the Kremlin in such a scenario.

Russia making itself look an active threat to them is not necessarily the best tactic! But on this I think it would be fascinating to look at more as it develops, at this point I really don't have ant great insight

@Partyatnumber10

This thread is fascinating, thank you for sharing your insights. Sorry if this has been asked/covered but I keep seeing these maps showing where Ukrainians are fleeing to and I've been surprised that a significant number of Ukrainians are actually fleeing to Russia. (Albeit smaller than to other countries it's still a significant number) does this indicate that there are at least some Ukrainians who sympathise with Russia in this or are other factors at play?

I know less than nothing but Al Jazeera reported this morning about safe passages leading to both Belerus and Russia. The other safe passages leading elsewhere? Maybe they are not so safe and if you are fleeing with your loved ones and have to choose between starving and a shit sandwich…?

Letmesleep123 said:

With regards to NATO refusing applications , I am linking again to a transcript from a nato summit in 2021 which confirms that Ukraine was very much set to join.

No, the OP simply didn't explain very well what is happening vis a vis Ukraine's application to join NATO.

It is not a simple or easy task and it tool, for example, North Macedonia 20 years to join.

One of NATO's requirements for Ukraine to join is that there cannot be "unresolved external territorial disputes”. The reason for this is that NATO would immediately be plunged into warfare.

Other NATO requirements are reforms:

combating corruption
promoting an inclusive political process
decentralisation reform based on democratic values
respect for human rights, minorities, and the rule of law
reforms in the security sector, including the reform of the Security Services of Ukraine

In short, NATO is supportive of Ukraine's ambition to join the NATO alliance which is legitimate and fair.

But NATO's support is DEPENDENT on Ukraine meeting all requirements for membership.

Until NATO is satisfied Ukraine meets all their requirements, their response is a firm NO.

But NATO will continue to support Ukraine in their reforms in the areas above.

So, I'm afraid Letmesleep123 you've spread disinformation on that and muddied the water.

[quote PinkNails1]@Aristalese yes those gulags are like the internment camps in the US - concentration camps for innocent Japanese Americans. I wish these things were talked about more![/quote]
Hi! Not wanting to underplay the situation of American internment camps in the second world war-they were disgusting and a racist concept, and held people hostage in poor conditions with plenty of examples of violence-I just don't think they are the correct comparisons to Gulags. There is a reason why the threat of Gulags struck utter terror into civilians, if you had to make a sliding scale here I would compare them to Nazi Germany work camps (ie the camps where they worked Jews to death rather than gassed them) than to US during WW2 on American soil camps. Similar levels of conditions that saw the need for mass graves.

Without claiming to know a huge lot about the history of Gulags, I think something like 14 million people were put in them and many essentially worked to death in slave conditions. At least 1.5 million are known to have died but the estimates are quite vague.

If you take a look at some pictures you'll find it hard to distinguish them from many Nazi concentration camps:

allthatsinteresting.com/soviet-gulag-photos#21

@Onlywomengivebirth

You are correct. Russia today confirmed that the only safe humanitarian corridors for civilian evacuation from Ukraine will be to Russia and Belarus.

In other words, jumping off a frying pan into a fire.

Ukrainians staying in Ukraine are facing genocide. Ukrainians escaping to Russia or Belarus either the same fate or at best discrimination and repressions.

@DownNative

Letmesleep123 said:

With regards to NATO refusing applications , I am linking again to a transcript from a nato summit in 2021 which confirms that Ukraine was very much set to join.

No, the OP simply didn't explain very well what is happening vis a vis Ukraine's application to join NATO.

It is not a simple or easy task and it tool, for example, North Macedonia 20 years to join.

One of NATO's requirements for Ukraine to join is that there cannot be "unresolved external territorial disputes”. The reason for this is that NATO would immediately be plunged into warfare.

Other NATO requirements are reforms:

combating corruption
promoting an inclusive political process
decentralisation reform based on democratic values
respect for human rights, minorities, and the rule of law
reforms in the security sector, including the reform of the Security Services of Ukraine

In short, NATO is supportive of Ukraine's ambition to join the NATO alliance which is legitimate and fair.

But NATO's support is DEPENDENT on Ukraine meeting all requirements for membership.

Until NATO is satisfied Ukraine meets all their requirements, their response is a firm NO.

But NATO will continue to support Ukraine in their reforms in the areas above.

So, I'm afraid Letmesleep123 you've spread disinformation on that and muddied the water.

Thanks to @DownNative for this post, which is spot on.

@workisnotawolf

1. What can the United Nations (despite the Russian veto vote) and the remainder of the world do to embarrass Putin and Russia further? What are good strategies for the continuous politics of embarrassment?

The reason I raise this is because I think Germany’s restraint following WW2 was due to embarrassment and I believe it will be important for Russia to feel the same so the imperialistic tendencies are not repeated again in the near future.

1. What do you think Russia will do about the worldwide web? Will we see a division between countries that allow use of the worldwide web and those that have their own limited version? (e.g. China, Iran, Russia)

1. Do you think it is the progress in social media and the internet that is one of the main reasons why this invasion did not go as planned for Putin? (In contrast to e.g. 2014)

1. What can Western countries and their governments do to make Ukrainian refugees thrive and contribute successfully to those countries? What can we do to help the men when they eventually join their families after trauma?

Workisnotawolf asked:

*1. What can the United Nations (despite the Russian veto vote) and the remainder of the world do to embarrass Putin and Russia further?
What are good strategies for the continuous politics of embarrassment?

The reason I raise this is because I think Germany’s restraint following WW2 was due to embarrassment and I believe it will be important for Russia to feel the same so the imperialistic tendencies are not repeated again in the near future.*

On the contrary, Germany's restraint post-WW2 was NOT due to embarrassment, but was largely due to:

1. partition into West and East Germany.

2. since the Wehrmach surrender in 1945, Germany has NOT been a sovereign independent state.

3. Allied powers had/have bases in West Germany. That would be the United States, United Kingdom and France.

For various geopolitical reasons, it will not be possible to do the same thing with the Russian Federation.

Germany did not have a powerful ally to help it, but Putin's Russia still has China in its corner.

Although the Chinese view of Russia as an ally is "We're in the same bed, but have different dreams."

In other words, China and Russia do NOT have the same future goals exactly.

What'sgoingon2022, you're welcome. I'll return at some point to put other disinformation by the same poster into context.

OP I'd love it if you could stop typing things with a line through them.
I find it difficult to read text like this and am not clear on why the point of it is either. I'm interested in your posts but I struggle to read them because of this.

One quick point for anyone who has been active online about the Russia-Ukraine conflict: please ensure that all your social media, email etc requires two factor authentication and uses a secure password. Journalists in Europe, US and UK are the current targets but this may spread. Nothing to be scared about, just check you have all your accounts secured.