Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

Thank you @WhatsGoingOn2022. I know a little about the Winter War with Finland but didn't know if Putin is of the view that Finland rightly belongs to Russia.

[quote Kendodd]**@letmesleep123

Remaining neutral, however, should be possible.

Well what does that look like?
Does it mean, for example, Ukraine should never be allowed to join the EU or NATO, even if the vast majority of its citizens want to? What if Ukrainians don't want to remain neutral, what if they want to position themselves to the east or west? Must they remain a buffer zone whether they like it or not?[/quote]
Yes some far left and pro Kremlin people come out with this line regularly. Ukraine has to be a buffer zone, Ukraine has to be neutral. Well Ukraine is subject to attacks and threats from one direction, and it is a free country of millions who have rights. It is insulting and imperialistic to declare a whole people have to alter their lives to appease an authoritarian leader

For those wondering what China might do.

China is likely to support Russia.

An article by academics Natasha Kuhrt, King's College London and Marcin Kaczmarski, University of Glasgow argued:

"The deteriorating Sino-American relationship is the main factor in Beijing’s implicit approval of Russia’s attack against Ukraine."

And:

"....Russia’s military attack on Ukraine creates a useful distraction, drawing the US attention away from China, just days after Washington published its newIndo-Pacific strategy."

And, most worryingly, this warning:

"Overall, China has less to lose from supporting Russia’saggressive foreign policythan it had a decade ago."

theconversation.com/ukraine-invasion-why-china-is-more-likely-to-support-russia-than-in-the-past-177854

This is why the US and Europe require a properly funded, manned and resourced NATO military capability. This has, unfortunately, been allowed to slide for several years.

It explains why the US Trump Administration demanded other NATO members spend more on defence. The US military has been overcommitted to various parts of the world for a while now.

It's overstretched.

Putin's Russia knows it.

Thank you DownNative, that’s very interesting.

@ohfook

I'm still working my way through this very informative thread so apologies if you've already answered this.

Do you think a more experienced politician than Zelensky could've avoided this with diplomacy or do you think it was always on the cards?

And is the reports of I'll-treatment of Russian speakers in Ukraine (forced to change names, stop speaking Russian etc) correct and was that under zelensky or previous leadership?

On the avoiding it with diplomacy: it depends on what you mean. He could have agreed to give Russia large chunks of territory, agreed to give up their military, agreed to never deepen trade links with Europe, and agreed to suppressive measures. But fundamentally short of doing this I don’t think there was any negotiating with Russia. The problem as I’ve tried to stage throughout this thread is that fundamentally Russia’s motivations here are imperialistic. They want Ukraine to follow their orders, fund them and be similarly repressed. There’s no way to negotiate with that unless you’re willing to give up fundamental freedoms in exchange for “peace”. Russia saw Ukraine as weak and winnable, they weren’t nervous of their army but the opposite.

It’s worth looking at Belarus if you want to see Putin’s idea of an ideal neighbour. They border Ukraine and are no doubt a big message to Ukrainians about what they risk becoming

Do you think a more experienced politician than Zelensky could've avoided this with diplomacy or do you think it was always on the cards?

No. Never. It's not about the Ukrainian leader's experience. Any pro-Western Ukrainian leader would have been in Zelensky's shoes now because of not being the part of NATO.

A pro-Russian leader would've helped turn Ukraine into another Belarus or formally into Russia by now.

And is the reports of I'll-treatment of Russian speakers in Ukraine (forced to change names, stop speaking Russian etc) correct and was that under zelensky or previous leadership?

Some are true. It's not a good thing, to say openly. It's nothing to do with Zelensky, this has been going on for some time.

However. The reason for this is taking revenge after years and years of repressions from Russia. If you read up on the history of Ukraine, Belarus, Poland, Lithuania, you will see that Russians eradicated or near-eradicated their minorities in these respective countries (who lived there peacefully). They've banned them from using or learning their own native languages. It's a very complex history.

@EmmaGrundyForPM

Thank you *@WhatsGoingOn2022*. I know a little about the Winter War with Finland but didn't know if Putin is of the view that Finland rightly belongs to Russia.

Ah apologies! As far as I am aware there isn’t really any narrative to that ends in Russia. The language about ownership is more directed at Baltic states and those bordering Ukraine, to my knowledge, but someone with greater understanding of Finland may jump in. I don’t think Finland is likely to be a core target, not least because I think Russia would really struggle and I imagine with the past there he wouldn’t want to give it a go. It might have been on the cards if Ukraine had buckled quickly but I think what is happening there will totally change these calculations.

I do think though we will see these provocations and threats towards Finland continue. I think they were a lot more successful at the start when people feared the Russian army and the support of their allies, but they are looking borderline silly at this point. While I would put nothing past Putin, the idea of opening another front to this war (at least at this point) would be nothing short of incompetent. Maybe if/after Ukraine falls though

For someone who asked previously about information on Russian analysts not having done the numbers on sanctions or logistics: I haven’t located the more verified information source yet but if you are ok to read a document that is in process of verification, Igor Sushko has done a translation on Twitter. It’s apparently FSB. Excuse the nature of the source and fact it is as yet unverified but it essentially says the same as the previous information.

It also contains a lot of what we already have concluded externally. To repeat as yet unverified but I don’t think in any way shocking from what we currently know.

Thanks for starting such a helpful thread @WhatsGoingOn2022

I wondered what you thought of this piece by Peter Hitchins this morning - I realise it's the Daily Mail but he's making what seem like some key points about why Russia invaded.

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10581335/PETER-HITCHENS-saw-coming-Thats-wont-join-carnival-hypocrisy.html

[quote Ticksallboxes]Thanks for starting such a helpful thread @WhatsGoingOn2022

I wondered what you thought of this piece by Peter Hitchins this morning - I realise it's the Daily Mail but he's making what seem like some key points about why Russia invaded.

www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10581335/PETER-HITCHENS-saw-coming-Thats-wont-join-carnival-hypocrisy.html[/quote]
I haven’t read that specific article, but if I put down here my real thoughts on Peter Hitchens…let’s just say I’d be banned for life! I think the most diplomatic way to put it is that virtually nobody serious considers him a serious voice on these kind of matters, let alone this specific situation

Hitchens seems to be missing the point that Russia has been inflaming conflict in Ukraine since 2014. The government that overturned in 2014 was a Russian proxy. Zelenskyy was voted in by a big majority in free and fair elections.

@WhatsGoingOn2022

Thank you for this thread. Most informative, especially about China’s prior knowledge about the invasion. Read an article this weekend which flagged that China has been active stockpiling various commodities such as grain, copper etc - commodities which will be in short supply if the war in Ukraine affects agricultural commodities production this year, leading to global shortages and inflated prices

@WhatsGoingOn2022
I have read the full thread and am curious what your thoughts are as to the sanctions weakening the capability of Russians to rebel against Putin - how can resources for organised rebellion or internal pressure ever happen when people are fighting to survive? I agree that pressure internally seems logical and right but also counterintuitive when trying to pressure the general population to protest or overthrow/ arrange a rebellion.

Putin won’t care if his people are starving or freezing. (I did see the IKEA footage but there must be underground rebellion networks forming) Any thoughts on this?

Also, won’t the sanctions give rise to organised crime, gangsters and black market economy within Russia that will only further weaken any chance that any populace of rebellion could form?

Sorry to ask this again but it's a question that I've noticed ignored on other threads (when asked by other posters). Maybe it's impossible to answer. But is a negotiation completely impossible here? Is there any scenario that Russia and Ukraine might agree on to enable peace?

Really interesting thread, thank-you OP.

Hi OP, thanks for starting this thread. It's very interesting. My question is, why do the Russians keep agreeing to ceasefire then breaking them? I see uptrend you reference this behaviour as a common Russian tactic (as well as a tactic of other armies). It just seems so cruel and barbaric to give people false hope that they will be able to escape. Do they do it to lure civilians out? Someone suggested it's due to poor communication within the army but I find thst hard to believe. Also, do you think there's a chance Ukraine could win the war?

@Bhud

Also, won’t the sanctions give rise to organised crime, gangsters and black market economy within Russia that will only further weaken any chance that any populace of rebellion could form?

This is happening in Russia regardless.

Also regarding your earlier post, taking Putin out wouldn't require many people to be armed necessarily. I think that's a mistaken idea that this is how it would happen. Masse protests, yes. Don't require tanks or heavy artillery. An actual coup wouldn't be done by a Joe Bloggs and that person(s) will be able to proceed regardless of the sanctions.

It' s a question that I've noticed ignored on other threads (when asked by other posters). Maybe it's impossible to answer. But is a negotiation completely impossible here?

This question has been answered in multiple posts throughout this thread.

My question is, why do the Russians keep agreeing to ceasefire then breaking them

Because one of their key methods in war is to break the people, so they'll be unbelievably cruel to civilians. Which is a real tragedy.

@Aristalese I'm obviously an idiot then as I've been reading the thread and have missed it. If you can let me know where that'd be really helpful

@MagicFox I'm sure you're not an idiot and no need for this tone. However, I am not sure how you'd like me to summarise what is probably a good quarter of all posts on here but I'll try my best.

In short, no a negotiation is not a strategy with Russia because of its imperialistic views. This is the main reason.

In a bit more detail, for this reason Russia will not allow Ukraine to be sovereign and independent because it considers it part of its own empire. Ukraine will not agree to a partition and why should it, it's a sovereign nation. Russia would not be satisfied with a partition regardless at this stage.

Ok thanks v much for your thoughts and response @Aristalese

[quote Bhud]@WhatsGoingOn2022
I have read the full thread and am curious what your thoughts are as to the sanctions weakening the capability of Russians to rebel against Putin - how can resources for organised rebellion or internal pressure ever happen when people are fighting to survive? I agree that pressure internally seems logical and right but also counterintuitive when trying to pressure the general population to protest or overthrow/ arrange a rebellion.

Putin won’t care if his people are starving or freezing. (I did see the IKEA footage but there must be underground rebellion networks forming) Any thoughts on this?[/quote]
Just to add on this one—unfortunately this is again looking at things from a very western perspective, what you are describing sounds more like Vichy France than Russia. There is no organised grassroots pressure force on Putin, this kind of ground up thing you are describing is a bit out of kilter with the actual situation. I have not seen any sparking if an Arab Spring there, yes there are protests but on the scale of Russia these are not exactly massive.

Honestly I think what happens would either be (a) on an elite level or (b) a disorganised mass riots kind of situation which would arise from seeing their economy hit. Regardless they are suppressed through his restraints on communications, not on resources.

Putin won’t care if his people aren’t starving, but they will and the country will become increasingly ungovernable. Unfortunately if you are waiting for the population as a whole to take a principled stance and take him down while life and the economy are fine, I would stake (maybe not my life, but everything major) on that now happening. If you look in detail at political history unfortunately you’ll find that people don’t tend to care too much about what horrible acts are done in their name if life is generally comfortable.

[quote Bhud]@WhatsGoingOn2022
I have read the full thread and am curious what your thoughts are as to the sanctions weakening the capability of Russians to rebel against Putin - how can resources for organised rebellion or internal pressure ever happen when people are fighting to survive? I agree that pressure internally seems logical and right but also counterintuitive when trying to pressure the general population to protest or overthrow/ arrange a rebellion.

Putin won’t care if his people are starving or freezing. (I did see the IKEA footage but there must be underground rebellion networks forming) Any thoughts on this?[/quote]
Just to be clear, I did read that the sanctions are in place to stop the war machine and to send a message that Russia is a pariah state and your opinion is that there is no hope of internal uprisings causing any real change. It is just a mess.

Surely the inner circle with the fast and sharp sanctions, their assets being seized, their country having failed at a quick success (as Putin promised them) and their country being thrown into further poverty, corruption and global isolation - their self-interest will kick in and they will pressure Putin to back down. How much scorched earth and economic pressure will his inner circle tolerate?

[quote MagicFox]@Aristalese I'm obviously an idiot then as I've been reading the thread and have missed it. If you can let me know where that'd be really helpful [/quote]
Hi it might help you to look into Belarus as an example of what Russia wants Ukraine to become. Then basically ask if you think any democratic country with aspirations of becoming a typical European state would be willing to accept that. This is why negotiation is basically a non starter.

Thank you for your reply @WhatsGoingOn2022

Crosspost there