Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

Claudine op has posted plenty of evidence there and thankfully Keir is Also addressing this rot.

@ClaudineClare

letmesleep123 if Zelensky is a US puppet, wouldn't he have got the hell out of Ukraine by now? It is one thing to be a slick PR machine, but quite another to put your life on the line, which is what he seems to be doing?

Yeah the allegation of Zelensky being a US puppet is one shared by the Kremlin and Russian separatists, and as far as I am aware very few others. At this point in time he represents the views of the vast majority of Ukrainians, who do not want to see their state taken over and destroyed by Russia, and who are unwilling to give up on democracy. Ukraine overthrew a previous president who tried to steer them forcefully away from Europe. Ukrainians (to grossly simplify) see the riches, stability and good life that neighbours in Poland enjoy, versus the repression faced by neighbours in Russia and Belarus. I feel millions of people have every right to choose that if they want, and I don't see why Russia should have a block on their democracy.

@Aristalese

There is nothing to suggest that Putin is looking to reinstate Yanukovych.

Actually, there have been multiple reports in recent days that Janukowycz continues to be protected by and collaborates with Putin with a view to be reinstated as Ukrainian president and Ukraine becoming a satellite country of Russia. This wouldn't be surprising.

I disagree about Zelensky too, he might be a PR machine but he's not an American puppet.

Also disagree about Ukraine being close to joining NATO. You're quoting resolutions from 2008 and a repeat from 2021. This in itself is 13 years. Meanwhile, for example Poland became a member in 1996, seven years after 1989 and five after the first free elections since the beginning of the fall of Soviet Russia. NATO has been dangling a carrot for Ukraine for far too long without a true willingness to expand and this is part of the issue. We wouldn't be in this position today had the expansion taken place years ago, as it should have in my view.

Re Angela Merkel, again, the West, not just her, had a far too conciliatory (placating?) attitude towards Putin for far too long and this didn't help, I've said this before.

Both Corbyn and Abbott do not understand that negotiating with a country like Russia will not succeed, it never has and it never will. Decisive steps were needed for years before but no one was in any rush to take them. So no, it's not unfair to criticise them at all for their shallow, populistic and equally unrealistic slogans.

Re neo-Nazi groups, they exist everywhere and that's an unfortunate truth. Whenever strong nationalistic tendencies are at the forefront, such groups gain traction. I firmly disagree with combining them with Ukrainian army because of course they should not be given this status, ever. However, again, historically this is not unusual in countries that were forced to defend their territory or felt under constant threat from their neighbours, this isn't new. What is wrong is creating the impression that this is Ukraine and what Ukrainian army is all about. It most definitely is not.

The reality is the West has some blame to take but there's no way Western influences can be in any way compared to Russian in Ukraine, just no way.

I appreciate opinions on this thread but some are frankly concerning and detached from the reality.

Yes thank you for making the points so well. With Russian propaganda of course it is possible to find kernels of truth or some element of similarity, but that doesn't mean it is true.

One thing worth noting: if you study foreign policy you will see the Cold War 'circles of influence' approach. That hasn't been mainstream in the west for years, but we often forget that this is still how Russia sees it. To the Kremlin their issue however is not any major US influence in Ukraine (they don't even claim that, the US has done very little for Ukraine in recent years) but rather that democracy on the border of authoritarianism undermines what is fast slipping towards an outright dictatorship in Russia.

@Tigersonvaseline

Let me sleep interesting posts.

But the presentation of the wicked us trying to draw Ukraine away from Russia...

And? Russia is essentially a giant prison camp under a dictator who takes over whatever countries he want's And how he wants.

Russia as a culture etc could never be removed from Ukraine just as the UK will never stop being European just because we left a trading block.

I'm not getting it because if3 Russia was a proper democracy and not in the grip of pirate gangsters plundering it's wealth for themselves... then we really would not be in this position.

Yes this. Arguing that Russian fears have any legitimacy is essentially saying that it is acceptable in the 21st century to force millions of people to live in poverty, repression and misery because to do otherwise would undermine the strength of the dictator.

It's not about Russian cultural influences in Ukraine, but about their ability to expert repressive powers. Many in Ukraine have had a dual identity, but murdering them like this is not exactly strengthening this. In fact, the last week has seen record high numbers in Ukraine say they would now welcome turning more forcefully to Europe, as a result of Russia's aggression.

@GrendelsGrandma

Fascinating thread op!

What are the geopolitical implications if this leads to a much weakened Russia (possibly Putin being removed and change of regime?) Could other regions of Russia break away, or neighbours attack, while the military is concentrated elsewhere? Does China become more powerful if Russia is weaker?

Also! Is there a good primer or site on this kind of thing?

The Russian Chinese relationship will definitely change, China was always the powerful one but Russia will be greatly weakened.

I don't think there is much chance of neighbours attacking (partially due to the nuclear deterrent) but I think breakaways are a fairly big chance. Both in terms of parts of Russia and states that are under Russian influence, where opinions may shift further.

To state the obvious: Russia is enormous, and there are large parts that haven't exactly wanted to be Russian. I don't have any deep knowledge though on this so someone may be able to jump in with specific understanding of Russian regions

@Tigersonvaseline

Claudine op has posted plenty of evidence there and thankfully Keir is Also addressing this rot.

With the help of this chap, friend of the oligarchs

tribunemag.co.uk/2021/05/mandelsons-return-puts-corporate-lobbying-at-the-heart-of-starmers-labour

We can all dig up links to discredit people!

However, I don't want to derail and so shall step away now.

@EmmaGrundyForPM

OP, do you think Putin might try to invade Finland?

This is one where looking at history is interesting: they've done it before, with disastrous results:

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_War

Russia have been threatening them over the last week, as far as I have seen though Finland have remained very level headed. NATO is still on the table (despite Russia's threats) but I don't think anything is imminent on that. Again though I don't have a hotline so can only say what is public at this time.

Also a piece here on Russians fleeing to Finland: www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60624500

And on their NATO possibilities: www.politico.eu/article/russia-war-ukraine-pushes-sweden-finland-closer-to-nato/

.

@Tigersonvaseline

Let me sleep.. it's all a moot point because we wouldn't be having this conversation if Russia was a free, democratic nation.

On this point: there is a fascinating body of literature in foreign policy on how democracies tend never to go to war with other democracies. Aggressor states are almost always authoritarian regimes. And when they are not, the state being attacked in almost always that kind of regime.

@DownNative

No, the OP very clearly stated in their first post that " I am by no means a leading specialist".

In other words, they're not setting themselves up as an expert, but offering the level of knowledge they have in order to understand the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

That's a CRUCIAL difference.

Thank you, I appreciate it. I can't claim to be an expert and I am not. But I do have a strong academic background in the area and have been reading everything so intently over the last while that I can certainly claim to know more than average.

I'd also like to point out that even if I were an expert, I would be no means be expected to be 'neutral'. Firstly, that doesn't exist. Secondly, I don't see any academics who are neutral on this war. In fact, Russian academics have bravely come out to condemn it.

I fundamentally believe that any line of us 'staying neutral on this' is a recycling of Kremlin propaganda. Why should people be neutral on a topic? We are a democracy, Ukraine is a democracy. There is no academic requirement to say that violent suppression of people is somehow on a par with democracy, and should be respected the same.

@ClaudineClare I think your perception re Corbyn and his circle is to be expected from a British person who hasn't had the first hand experience of dealings with Russia. Obviously I've just made a load of assumptions here so apologies if I'm wrong, I am only guessing from the tone of your posts.

We have a saying, your POV depends on where you're sat. Where the British public sits, theoretically he's a peace dove, doesn't want a war, wants negotiations, tries to see the arguments of all involved and understand them, etc, etc. Seemingly positive and innocent.

Where I'm sat, I know this approach doesn't work with Russia as explained earlier. And that it will most likely lead to some countries, including my own, to disappearing from the map, again. I also think this is the time to call it out for what it is, a power grab, an invasion on a sovereign country, murdering its citizens. Don't try to see the Russian side here. It's a bunch of excuses to justify their crimes, they've always acted this way, throughout their entire history. UK far left's attitide is not only unworkable and deeply offensive as it minimises the position and rights of the true victims of Russia. So no, no support to this from me either, and I will applaud it if Mr Starmer eliminates this view from his party, which he is considering.

[quote HelpMeHiveMind]@goliaths totally agree I preferred it when it was AMA from the Op...quite a few of the vocal voices from other threads are now making their way onto this one and in danger of making it just like all the others which would be a real shame. [/quote]
This.

@NutellaEllaElla

Thank you for your better educated and informed than me interpretations.

My worry has been, how could this possibly end? Putin doesn't strike me as the kind to give up or admit defeat. Also, is it true that some Russian soldiers have been defecting?

I agree with this. I do not believe Putin will admit defeat.

Aristalese I know I said I will step away as I don't want to derail, but just to be clear, I don't think there is a Russian "side" in this war. What Russia is doing is abominable to my eyes and I would happily see Putin's head on a stick.

twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1500080867091353601?s=21

I though this thread was interesting in the imbalance in power between Russia and China.

No idea how much is wishful thinking!

[quote WhatsGoingOn2022]@letmesleep123 gives very much a valid perspective, I am not trying to undermine that, but will say it is a very much minority perspective from Ukraine at this point. I have strong Russian, Belarusian, Ukrainian and Polish links and know not one person who shares these views (with the caveat that all my Russian links are to the kind of well-informed and liberal Russians who are disgusted by Putin's actions).

Putin is the aggressor who has invaded a sovereign country. It takes quite a strongly anti-Ukrainian and pro-Kremlin perspective to put them on the same level with what is happening in Ukraine.[/quote]
Im finding all these posts very helpful and Im another who didnt know what sport washing was either

However, i also raised the query about how much of a contributory factor it is/was/could be that NATO being seen by Russia to have reneged on previous agreements and/or moving closer to its borders to this action.

To debate that and question it does not equate to thinking that Ukraine should have been invaded or that the actions by Putin were justified. It shouldnt be the case that someone even has to say this, this is the problem with most threads where people can be reductive and simplistic.

To answer another point further up (I do continue to be frustrated about this forum and the difficulty in following posts), I personally dont think that its possible for Ukraine to be neutral, or in fact any state that borders Russia, its not going to happen.

@ClaudineClare I totally appreciate it and sorry, I didn't aim that comment at you personally, it was a statement related to far left wing in the UK and why their views on this conflict are damaging. As you say, this is not the main focus of the thread though so I'll be leaving this point now too, enough has been covered.

you you too Aristalese my heart goes out to Ukraine and its people.

[quote ClaudineClare]I hope you don't mind me chipping in, but re: is Putin ill? I heartily recommend this documentary which demonstrates Aristalese's point that this is not about Putin being ill. Putin is being Putin.

I think the West is putting that line out as many are probably ashamed of their dealings with him. There is a clip in the last episode of the documentary where Putin is singing to a celebrity audience full of Hollywood stars and the like (and politicians I think). They cheer and applaud.

www.channel4.com/programmes/putin-a-russian-spy-story[/quote]
We (the west and UK) have blood on our hands, we have sat back and let this man become more wealthy using our own economy for years

On the illness question, I was watching something the other day which talked about the history of 'nostalgia' and the origin of the word, it was originally seen as a disorder/hysterical condition that could eventually kill you and was about the deep connection or longing for your place of birth, a hugely nationalistic feeling.

Another poster above talks about the grandeur and romanticism of dying for your 'empire' and I think this probably fits that definition of nostalgia very well,, the grandiose presentation of a leader.

So he might be clinically and pathologically nostaligic.

[quote Aristalese]@ClaudineClare I think your perception re Corbyn and his circle is to be expected from a British person who hasn't had the first hand experience of dealings with Russia. Obviously I've just made a load of assumptions here so apologies if I'm wrong, I am only guessing from the tone of your posts.

We have a saying, your POV depends on where you're sat. Where the British public sits, theoretically he's a peace dove, doesn't want a war, wants negotiations, tries to see the arguments of all involved and understand them, etc, etc. Seemingly positive and innocent.

Where I'm sat, I know this approach doesn't work with Russia as explained earlier. And that it will most likely lead to some countries, including my own, to disappearing from the map, again. I also think this is the time to call it out for what it is, a power grab, an invasion on a sovereign country, murdering its citizens. Don't try to see the Russian side here. It's a bunch of excuses to justify their crimes, they've always acted this way, throughout their entire history. UK far left's attitide is not only unworkable and deeply offensive as it minimises the position and rights of the true victims of Russia. So no, no support to this from me either, and I will applaud it if Mr Starmer eliminates this view from his party, which he is considering.[/quote]
The problem with Corbyn is not just with Russia, but is also his views on Iran and the Provos (Sinn Féin and the IRA). There's very similar issues with Diane Abbott and John McDonnell as well.

A lot of people tend not to look closely at his actual actions, unfortunately. It's a good thing he never became PM.

Starmer has quite a job on his hands to reorient Labour away from the corrosive influence of those three.

What's Going On, yes, it's bizarre that some expect experts to be neutral on many things, but especially on issues of conflict, war, terrorism, security and counterterrorism.

Such a thing does not exist and no expert is neutral. And I agree neutrality is a cop out on many conflict zones from NI in the UK, Balkans 1999, Gulf 1991 and more recent ones such as Ukraine and Georgia.

@bellac11 what I am trying to say on the NATO question is that this is actually the opposite of why Putin and his inner circle decided to invade. They have pushed NATO repeatedly and got no strong response. They thought NATO was weak and that’s why they went for it. Apologies am on my phone now so I can link but will do so later.

At risk of grossly oversimplifying NATO’s processes, it needs unanimity on new joiners. Russia has Turkey and Hungary in there who have both been doing a bit of their dirty work. Turkey has rapidly turned from Russia in the last week but until then was drifting their way.

The Kremlin sees this is an offensive war not a defensive one. They may pump out different messages in propaganda that is actually specifically designed to be consumed by the kind of people who are already anti-American and keen to pick up this message. That’s why this frustrates me, I do not believe the Kremlin believes this, I do believe their propaganda channels know that it goes down well in specific international constituencies.

It’s like their statements about Liz Truss last week:intentionally put out to create discord between NATO, as well as to try to get Labour to back off on their strong stance. None of them took the bait but I felt like banging my head against the wall when I saw British people parroting this line on Twitter. The Kremlin didn’t believe it, but people lapped it up because it was designed to fit their world view

@merrymouse

twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1500080867091353601?s=21

I though this thread was interesting in the imbalance in power between Russia and China.

No idea how much is wishful thinking!

Great thread! For those interested in this I would also recommend checking out Lawrence Freedman on Twitter and in the blog he links to.

There are a lot of people tracking China’s response to this and so far it is confusing to say the least. There are examples of both too and anti Russian positions, I suspect there is an element of waiting to see the exact fallout before they come down fully

I'm still working my way through this very informative thread so apologies if you've already answered this.

Do you think a more experienced politician than Zelensky could've avoided this with diplomacy or do you think it was always on the cards?

And is the reports of I'll-treatment of Russian speakers in Ukraine (forced to change names, stop speaking Russian etc) correct and was that under zelensky or previous leadership?

@ShipwreckSunset

Thanks for this thread OP, really interesting info. Please return!

Particularly interested in the viewpoint on sanctions, I hadn’t much hope they would work but sounds like they may have some impact. Would like to see some other prominent western companies pull out though.

I completely agree with this, would say however check out Twitter etc you would be amazed at some of the names on there. There has been a concerted campaign and many high street and luxury brands are no longer working with Russia. Will post full details later