Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

@Bhud according to leaked Kremlin documents that to my knowledge have not yet been verified (although I have been out all day, they may well have been since) their internal estimates are that with these sanctions they have until June before the country totally collapses and war becomes impossible.

The problem with putting our hopes on the oligarchs doing something is that again all we can do is create the conditions where that is ideal to happen (ie country crumbling and their wealth disappearing) but we can’t just hope that they do that, or even less can we hope that they’ll be successful

If you look in detail at political history unfortunately you’ll find that people don’t tend to care too much about what horrible acts are done in their name if life is generally comfortable.

I agree completely. sadly I know this all too well from personal experience.

@Bhud

Thank you for your reply *@WhatsGoingOn2022*

Crosspost there

Thanks! I think the key thing I’m trying to say really is that while we can help make the cod rooms ripe for putin to be overthrown, we can actually make that happen. So any tactic that relies on this leaves the big hole of what if it doesn’t happen. So we need action on multiple fronts

Honestly I think what happens would either be (a) on an elite level or (b) a disorganised mass riots kind of situation which would arise from seeing their economy hit. Regardless they are suppressed through his restraints on communications, not on resources.

My gut instinct is that both will happen simultaneously @WhatsGoingOn2022. There will be uncoordinated riots on the streets, eventually. The rich, inner circle with their very own well trained security and resources will finally have enough and go ahead. When? When too much money is lost by them. When they see that the Russian army is really struggling in Ukraine. From that POV, the longer Ukraine fights the better but I absolutely hate saying this because it's not a war game but real people losing their lives and everything they have because of sick, vile aspirations. Historically, Russians have proved they won't think twice about taking down their own leaders once it becomes more beneficial than their status quo.

@ThatDontImpressMeMuch90

Hi OP, thanks for starting this thread. It's very interesting. My question is, why do the Russians keep agreeing to ceasefire then breaking them? I see uptrend you reference this behaviour as a common Russian tactic (as well as a tactic of other armies). It just seems so cruel and barbaric to give people false hope that they will be able to escape. Do they do it to lure civilians out? Someone suggested it's due to poor communication within the army but I find thst hard to believe. Also, do you think there's a chance Ukraine could win the war?

On the ceasefires: I want to add something further on this: there have been some voices on here that come from a particular perspective suggesting my accusations of war crimes by Russia have been overblown. I cannot disagree any more forcefully on this. Russian military strategy is based fundamentally around tactics that are dirty and brutal and barbaric, that are banned under international law. I would challenge you to find anyone not Kremlin affiliated who says otherwise. If you have a strong stomach then I would urge you to look at Grozny and st Syria. These actions are not accidents but are planned. Civilian deaths are not an accident but intentional, to terrify the population. Look for example at the shooting of those Sky journalists, the accounts all across media of civilians intentionally targeted.

Anyone who tries to tell you these are isolated incidents or accidents is coming from a strong ideological tilt. What has been confirmed from there actions in Ukraine is so far narrow due to the amount of time verification usually takes. However I believe the thermobaric weapons have now been internationally accepted, not least as Ukrainian forces actually captured one of these weapons. Likewise cluster munitions. I would urge you to look these up only if you have a very very strong stomach, there is a reason the BBC does not show these

@Aristalese

Honestly I think what happens would either be (a) on an elite level or (b) a disorganised mass riots kind of situation which would arise from seeing their economy hit. Regardless they are suppressed through his restraints on communications, not on resources.

My gut instinct is that both will happen simultaneously @WhatsGoingOn2022. There will be uncoordinated riots on the streets, eventually. The rich, inner circle with their very own well trained security and resources will finally have enough and go ahead. When? When too much money is lost by them. When they see that the Russian army is really struggling in Ukraine. From that POV, the longer Ukraine fights the better but I absolutely hate saying this because it's not a war game but real people losing their lives and everything they have because of sick, vile aspirations. Historically, Russians have proved they won't think twice about taking down their own leaders once it becomes more beneficial than their status quo.

Yes I think I agree with that assessment l, and I think both will be CAUSED by the sanctions rather than hindered by them. Unfortunately unless we absolutely cripple the Russian economy I don’t think we will see either

Hi all, sorry am still on phone so struggling to link properly, but this should work below. This is a link to a translation of an alleged FSB internal assessment of the situation, I said earlier it has not been authenticated but Bellingcat and their FSB contacts believe it to be real. I suspect it may need further authentication before media are happy to run it but it doesn’t say anything out of kilter with western assessments regardless. While long I would urge anyone who is questioning what Russia wants or if they are doing this in response to the US to read it.

twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1500438996559613953?s=21

I highly suspect we will see this covered in standard media once further work has been done on it.

1. What can the United Nations (despite the Russian veto vote) and the remainder of the world do to embarrass Putin and Russia further?

What are good strategies for the continuous politics of embarrassment?

The reason I raise this is because I think Germany’s restraint following WW2 was due to embarrassment and I believe it will be important for Russia to feel the same so the imperialistic tendencies are not repeated again in the near future.

1. What do you think Russia will do about the worldwide web? Will we see a division between countries that allow use of the worldwide web and those that have their own limited version? (e.g. China, Iran, Russia)

1. Do you think it is the progress in social media and the internet that is one of the main reasons why this invasion did not go as planned for Putin? (In contrast to e.g. 2014)

1. What can Western countries and their governments do to make Ukrainian refugees thrive and contribute successfully to those countries? What can we do to help the men when they eventually join their families after trauma?

@WhatsGoingOn2022 Sky News is quoting Zelensky today who apparently says that Ukrainians seized the invasion plans from Russian troops which set out clearly they've planned invading the whole of Ukraine. What do you think is going on here?

I am not quite sure on this one, tbh. My belief is that Putin planned this war and many people in Russia knew, but don't want to admit this now. His people have miscalculated Ukrainian defence and level of sanctions though, that's pretty clear.

[quote Aristalese]@WhatsGoingOn2022 Sky News is quoting Zelensky today who apparently says that Ukrainians seized the invasion plans from Russian troops which set out clearly they've planned invading the whole of Ukraine. What do you think is going on here?

I am not quite sure on this one, tbh. My belief is that Putin planned this war and many people in Russia knew, but don't want to admit this now. His people have miscalculated Ukrainian defence and level of sanctions though, that's pretty clear.[/quote]
There were definitely international allies who knew (Belarus, Syria and China at least), and some military commanders too, but I do believe this was not widespread amongst the military and the entirety of the Kremlin due to the FSB leaks and some specific failures in Russian planning. The original plans were fairly narrow and this widespread mobilisation was not expected. Russia is believed to have now committed the entirety of the troops and materials they had assembled, I have seen reports of them pulling tanks etc from other parts of Russia for transport. I think the FSB reports of lack of knowledge across wider policy makers ties with the frankly disastrous job they are trying to do on managing the sanction difficulties. The level of poor planning is hard to overestimate.

On the seized plans: yes Ukraine has captured many of these, they are on Twitter if you have a thorough look. I have seen in the last few hours that they have seized plans outlining the intent to being bombing Odessa. Also worth looking at what Belarus put out: they released video footage of Lukashenko in front of a map of their planned invasion

Yes, I saw Lukashenko, Moldova was the next target if I remember correctly, not sure if any other countries were marked on his map or what it meant. Thing is, this could've been a strategic move and they'll attack elsewhere next. They're not oblivious. I'm withholding judgement on this one for now.

@workisnotawolf

1. What can the United Nations (despite the Russian veto vote) and the remainder of the world do to embarrass Putin and Russia further? What are good strategies for the continuous politics of embarrassment?

The reason I raise this is because I think Germany’s restraint following WW2 was due to embarrassment and I believe it will be important for Russia to feel the same so the imperialistic tendencies are not repeated again in the near future.

1. What do you think Russia will do about the worldwide web? Will we see a division between countries that allow use of the worldwide web and those that have their own limited version? (e.g. China, Iran, Russia)

1. Do you think it is the progress in social media and the internet that is one of the main reasons why this invasion did not go as planned for Putin? (In contrast to e.g. 2014)

1. What can Western countries and their governments do to make Ukrainian refugees thrive and contribute successfully to those countries? What can we do to help the men when they eventually join their families after trauma?

To look at number 1: for the politics of embarrassment: The UN General Assembly resolution made a pretty good start on this. I think Russia will be seriously taken aback by quite how poorly they did. Frankly, shockingly bad.

Absolutely stripping Russia of every chance to look good on the world stage is crucial. This means sports, culture, economics, everything. I know it sounds funny to talk about things like Putin getting stripped of his martial arts honourary positions, or Russian cats no longer being able to compete, but this all helps enforce the point that they are considered like North Korea. And then Russian propaganda channels have the unenviable position of trying to fills hours of content with anything, ANYTHING that shows Russia in a good light.

It also helps to strip them of the shops and brands. No IKEA, no Gucci, no Zara, no ASOS or Marks & Spencers. These examples are all ones that have withdrawn from Russia, the lists are huge. This is already 24 hours of date but gives an idea of the scale: mobile.twitter.com/AmericanEvents_/status/1499828674341875713

@Aristalese

Yes, I saw Lukashenko, Moldova was the next target if I remember correctly, not sure if any other countries were marked on his map or what it meant. Thing is, this could've been a strategic move and they'll attack elsewhere next. They're not oblivious. I'm withholding judgement on this one for now.

Yeah I know what you mean. Have you seen this one, it's a bit old but seems reliable? I've seen this making the round, this was allegedly seized by Ukrainian military when they captured Russian forces:

The invasion was approved by the Russian government on January 18th and was planned to last from February 20th until March 6th:

twitter.com/ParrMane/status/1499061967843119105

Thank you @WhatsGoingOn2022 and others. This thread has been hugely useful as someone who is horrified but still lacking understanding on the details.

We’ve seen fuel prices increase here, plus shortages (at least locally - I had to go to three fuel stations to find diesel this week). I personally have noticed some food shortages too, although we’ve had this periodically for the last few years owing to brexit/COVID. Do you see further impacts on UK residents following from Russian sanctions?

Do you have any guesses on what sanctions come next?

I will add though (and should have on the previous messages, my apologies) that I have no idea if those documents have actually been verified. And will further add that there are clearly forged allegedly Russian stolen from Ukraine documents also circulating, so these not being real is a possibility. And those allegedly Ukrainian documents circulating that Russia claim to have captured are clearly false!

@workisnotawolf

1. What can the United Nations (despite the Russian veto vote) and the remainder of the world do to embarrass Putin and Russia further? What are good strategies for the continuous politics of embarrassment?

The reason I raise this is because I think Germany’s restraint following WW2 was due to embarrassment and I believe it will be important for Russia to feel the same so the imperialistic tendencies are not repeated again in the near future.

1. What do you think Russia will do about the worldwide web? Will we see a division between countries that allow use of the worldwide web and those that have their own limited version? (e.g. China, Iran, Russia)

1. Do you think it is the progress in social media and the internet that is one of the main reasons why this invasion did not go as planned for Putin? (In contrast to e.g. 2014)

1. What can Western countries and their governments do to make Ukrainian refugees thrive and contribute successfully to those countries? What can we do to help the men when they eventually join their families after trauma?

On the second one: use of web: I will very clearly say here that technology is not only not a strength of mine but actually I am not very competent myself so really not qualified! I know however that at present Russia has fairly similar web access to us: while their mainstream media are primarily Kremlin propaganda until this week they were on Facebook, watching BBC, using Twitter, etc. I know they are still on Instagram and I believe Youtube is still working but access to a lot of other sites have been restricted. Basically the entirety of the non Kremlin press has been shut.

Without having much tech knowledge I can say that Russia is definitely drifting in a harsher Chinese style restrictions direction, it would be great if someone with specific expertise of this could jump on

@workisnotawolf

1. What can the United Nations (despite the Russian veto vote) and the remainder of the world do to embarrass Putin and Russia further? What are good strategies for the continuous politics of embarrassment?

The reason I raise this is because I think Germany’s restraint following WW2 was due to embarrassment and I believe it will be important for Russia to feel the same so the imperialistic tendencies are not repeated again in the near future.

1. What do you think Russia will do about the worldwide web? Will we see a division between countries that allow use of the worldwide web and those that have their own limited version? (e.g. China, Iran, Russia)

1. Do you think it is the progress in social media and the internet that is one of the main reasons why this invasion did not go as planned for Putin? (In contrast to e.g. 2014)

1. What can Western countries and their governments do to make Ukrainian refugees thrive and contribute successfully to those countries? What can we do to help the men when they eventually join their families after trauma?

On number 3: I think the main reason it didn't go to plan was the utter state of the military planning, combined with fundamental strategic errors and a lack of basic understanding of Ukraine.

But social media has been a strong factor in Zelensky's ability to get International buy-in, rally Ukrainians and arrange civilian resistance. His use of social media has been exemplary and I think Ukrainian civilians with social media understanding have essentially mobilised themselves into an internet army. It's been pretty incredible and is definitely a large factor in the PR success. But Russian logistical and military errors are a big part of their failure. So there's an element of success for Ukraine and failure for Russia.

On the last one: refugee settlement in not something I know a huge lot about so I won't assert anything in particular, I would just say check out organisations like the Red Cross and specialist refugee charities who do this on a daily basis. This isn't a standard refugee situation as we are not seeing camps, rather Ukrainians are being accepted directly into homes. Another way that makes this unusual is that they are overwhelmingly women or children, which is also not typical.

But the UK is really not stepping up to the plate on refugees here unfortunately: anything we can do to pressurise the Home Office to actually get these processes in swing and stop the delays would be a help. For example writing to MPs, in particular if you are in a Tory seat.

Re refugees, this is a difficult one for the British.

This is because for a number of years now there has been a particular nasty undercurrent in British press and politics, a strong anti-European and particularly anti Eastern-European sentiment. I hate this phrase, 'Eastern European', there really isn't such a thing as it refers to people from what geographically is Central Europe and Eastern Europe. It is also offensive to me, as in, very post-Soviet aka 'the Eastern bloc'. We are individual countries, sovereign nations and democratic republics. People talk about France and Germany, not 'Western Europeans'. Talk about Poland, Czech Rep, Slovakia, Ukraine, Romania, Bulgaria and other countries equally then, as individual countries.

I'm digressing, but the point is, the above narrative has informed the politics of the UK Home Office. Consequently, the UK is not doing anywhere near enough in this refugee crisis. There soon will be 1m Ukrainians seeking refuge in Poland in less than 2 weeks. Mostly mothers with young children and people with disabilities. Let that sink in. Poland has to deal with it and is getting on, it's pretty incredible. Meanwhile the UK...not even a drop in the ocean considering the scale of it.
I'm not being bitter in response to the question how to help, but I'm angry that you as a society are not given the opportunity to welcome these people and truly help because of your politics. And frankly, not enough people and politicians speak out against it either because there have been endless buckets of mud thrown at 'Eastern Europeans' unfairly to achieve Brexit and so there is some distrust in British society, sadly. Unfortunately, the xenophobic mindset against 'Eastern Europeans' still dominates the Home Office.

I think the change of rhetoric and respecting Ukrainians, Poles etc as equals would be a good start. That's very basic but key as it makes people feel welcome and comfortable. Then the specific help depends on the individuals, if you welcome refugees. My friends and family in Poland offer their own homes, share food, offer jobs in their businesses in accordance with the refugees' qualifications. So not any job will do because you're a Ukrainian refugee. No, you're equal to us and you need help, so we'll help you out. This is the spirit. Everyone has faith that this will pass and everyone knows these people need some normality. Then when things calm down, they will want to return to rebuild their own country, to hopefully reunite with their husbands and fathers. Ukraine will always be their home.

So that's what can be done for now. But like I said, the reality is if HO policies don't change you won't see a huge influx of Ukrainians here. So the next best thing is to donate money to help this group of refugees and buy items that are required at any given time and donate through organised channels only - the Polish community in the UK is extremely well organised by now, if you reach out to them locally, you'll be guided as to how you can help.

Have been out all day and just catching up on developments so I will add this for anyone who was asking about protests: I have seen substantially more evidence of protest in Russia within the last 10 hours, suggesting they are greatly increasing. I've also seen further reports of children being arrested, this time in a school for challenging a teachers pro-Putin propaganda. I would maintain my caution on thinking anything huge will erupt from it, but I am by nature quite cynical so make of that what you will. Looks like the pressure is starting to work, so keep it up.

Another thing to do is do not buy Russian, think that's obvious. Check the origin of the products you buy not to fill their pockets. Every little helps.

And as OP says, lobby your MP if you think the UK should be doing more to help refugees. Protest, against the war and against not doing enough to help. I have a strong belief that people here do care and that you do have a strong moral code which I respect. I think sometimes you need a push to get your voices out there, and I think if there ever was the right moment for this, it is here and now.

Related to sanctions, not impressed to see that some major household brand names are continuing to trade in Russia, no doubt more concerned about their company performance than sending a signal to Russia. Some of these would be very visible to the Russian people eg Coke so even more disappointing.

Ah apologies! As far as I am aware there isn’t really any narrative to that ends in Russia. The language about ownership is more directed at Baltic states and those bordering Ukraine, to my knowledge, but someone with greater understanding of Finland may jump in. I don’t think Finland is likely to be a core target, not least because I think Russia would really struggle and I imagine with the past there he wouldn’t want to give it a go. It might have been on the cards if Ukraine had buckled quickly but I think what is happening there will totally change these calculations.

I do think though we will see these provocations and threats towards Finland continue. I think they were a lot more successful at the start when people feared the Russian army and the support of their allies, but they are looking borderline silly at this point. While I would put nothing past Putin, the idea of opening another front to this war (at least at this point) would be nothing short of incompetent. Maybe if/after Ukraine falls though

I suppose Finland was included when Putin remarked on Lenin's mistake in 1917 but Finland's defence strategy of total defence is probably well known by the Russians, so they would know that it would not be an easy task. Just a pity we got rid of our landmines, would feel a lot better if they were on the border!

@ElasaandAnna

Could you please stop using the strike through in your posts OP? Thanks

I can't see any strikethroughs at all either but I did notice a few double dashes which normally result in strikethoughs if they come in pairs around text. Weird that I can't see any though

For anyone interested in seeing just how far down the path of Nazi-esque actions Russia has gone, I would suggest looking at the use of the Z symbol within the last week (for background: this is the symbol they have been painting on invasion vehicles or the war in Ukraine). It's like Squid Games meets the swastika.

They are being sold on shirts in Russia so you two can show your support on instagram for mass slaughter: twitter.com/VALERIEinNYT/status/1498355979829891072

This thread has some of the images at the start: apologies I haven't read the full thing but would reccommend the first couple of tweets at least: the worst of all is possibly where they put kids with terminal cancer outside to form a Z for state media:
twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1500495309595725831

I would suggest looking at this video, which is like video games meets Hitler youth:

twitter.com/StalinGulag/status/1499075983437139976

A pro Putin protest today with Z symbols:
twitter.com/Russ_Warrior/status/1500547342894002176

Serbian pro-Putin protests:
twitter.com/Rrrrnessa/status/1499914605791002624