Ukraine and Russia: Answering common questions and issues

[WhatsGoingOn2022]

Hi, I am starting this thread due to the amount of misinformation and speculation I have seen on the boards around what is happening with Russia's war on Ukraine.

While I am by no means a leading specialist, I have a master's degree focusing on the defence and economics aspect of international relations, I work today in politics and have a lot of links in the area. Anything I can't answer I can at least point you to the people who can-- I naturally follow this incredibly closely.

I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have, on anything from the war, to sanctions, to Russia's actions, to the fallout.

@letmesleep123

Remaining neutral, however, should be possible.

Well what does that look like?
Does it mean, for example, Ukraine should never be allowed to join the EU or NATO, even if the vast majority of its citizens want to? What if Ukrainians don't want to remain neutral, what if they want to position themselves to the east or west? Must they remain a buffer zone whether they like it or not?

@goliaths totally agree I preferred it when it was AMA from the Op...quite a few of the vocal voices from other threads are now making their way onto this one and in danger of making it just like all the others which would be a real shame.

@Aristalese

I also agree the AMA format worked well and OP does know what she's talking about well. I wouldn't have bothered engaging at all otherwise.

Sorry @WhatsGoingOn2022 if I've got too involved, I've tried to address comments related to what I've said before only but I'm getting carried away now as it's a topic very close to my heart too and some opinions I firmly disagree with have made its way onto this thread.

To reiterate, I agree with you on pretty much every point. You've made a great effort here and please continue, I'm reading (and agreeing) quietly.

You’ve been great to read too!

@Aristalese your contributions have been just as good as the OP’s. Please continue 🙂
Hear hear!

@DownNative

Mind you ThroughThick&Thin01, the OP did state:

"I thought it might be helpful if myself and others with specific knowledge in this area could help to answer any questions you have..."

My area of knowledge is terrorism, security and counterterrorism, especially that in Northern Ireland.

But the skills are transferable to other conflicts.

Yes true.

I would like the thread to be as factual as possible, with links if possible to support what is being said, but in the hope that we are intelligent enough to know that anything said is down to a personal matter of opinion.

There are other threads criss crossed with arguing and I don’t want this to be one of them.

Hopefully we are all bright enough to not take the ops word as absolute truth, but it’s good to read the information she’s supplying, and her knowledge she’s passing on.

.

@Aristalese

I also agree the AMA format worked well and OP does know what she's talking about well. I wouldn't have bothered engaging at all otherwise.

Sorry @WhatsGoingOn2022 if I've got too involved, I've tried to address comments related to what I've said before only but I'm getting carried away now as it's a topic very close to my heart too and some opinions I firmly disagree with have made its way onto this thread.

To reiterate, I agree with you on pretty much every point. You've made a great effort here and please continue, I'm reading (and agreeing) quietly.

@Aristalese I want you to continue--a big part of the hope of this thread was to get people with your level of knowledge to come together onto a thread and share knowledge

Do you think putin is ill?

@letmesleep123 gives very much a valid perspective, I am not trying to undermine that, but will say it is a very much minority perspective from Ukraine at this point. I have strong Russian, Belarusian, Ukrainian and Polish links and know not one person who shares these views (with the caveat that all my Russian links are to the kind of well-informed and liberal Russians who are disgusted by Putin's actions).

Putin is the aggressor who has invaded a sovereign country. It takes quite a strongly anti-Ukrainian and pro-Kremlin perspective to put them on the same level with what is happening in Ukraine.

As to my own perspective: at others have said I was never claimed to be a leading expert, part of the point of this thread was to get others with expertise on board too. I won't pretend to be completely unbiased either, as how can you be when people you know are being bombed by Russians, when Russian friends are threatened with prison and when Belarusian friends are desperately trying to sabotage their army before they invade Ukraine.

So I am unashamed in my view that Russia needs to get out of Ukraine and stop murdering Ukrainians. I am not ashamed of this position, in fact I think it is a position that should be held by any decent person.

[quote Kendodd]**@letmesleep123

Remaining neutral, however, should be possible.

Well what does that look like?
Does it mean, for example, Ukraine should never be allowed to join the EU or NATO, even if the vast majority of its citizens want to? What if Ukrainians don't want to remain neutral, what if they want to position themselves to the east or west? Must they remain a buffer zone whether they like it or not?[/quote]
Regarding this - this is exactly what makes me think poster who made that comment might not have the links they claim they do. Ukraine will never stay neutral. It just cannot and it wouldn't be in its interest either.

If you look through the 2000s, Tymoszenko, Juszczenko, Poroszenko, Zelensky were leaning towards the West and NATO and possibly longer term towards EU expansion (although for the latter, Ukraine was far from meeting the accesion criteria, primarily economically). On the other side there was Janukowycz who has always been pro-Russian and more insular.

Ukrainian politics is polarised, leaning towards the West or the East and it will always be this way due to its history, ethnic composition and geopolitical location. So there is and there won't be a neutral stance and it wouldn't make Ukraine safe. In reality, to keep it safe it needs to join NATO. Otherwise Putin will turn it into another Belarus.

Thanks @WhatsGoingOn2022, I'll chip in if I've anything to add, but you've covered lots already.

Welcome back op! Agree with the others let's try and Keep this one clear.

@Lampface

Thank you for this thread OP.

Specific question: what is Lithuania's situation at the moment? How much does Putin want Lithuania, and is it in similar danger?

Thank you.

@Lampface there has been a lot of sabre rattling at Lithuania for a long time. I guess I would have to say sitting comfortably in the UK I don't think there's much chance of Lithuania being in danger (thanks to NATO) but if I were in Lithuania I don't think I would be so calm. Unlikely but not impossible.

Lithuania has been strong publicly in calling for NATO to not get into direct confrontation with Putin, they're essentially on the frontlines. So while I don't think it's likely it's a nerve wracking place to be. If I were in Lithuania right now that NATO membership would seem like the best investment ever!

www.reuters.com/world/europe/calls-nato-no-fly-zone-ukraine-irresponsible-lithuania-pm-says-2022-03-04/

foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/03/nato-must-prepare-to-defend-its-weakest-point-the-suwalki-corridor/

www.wsj.com/articles/lithuania-baltics-rogue-putin-russia-ukraine-invasion-war-nato-spending-germany-european-union-bank-sanctions-swift-11646425967

And m.. who cares if it's going east if east is happy ISH democracy that wants the usual prosperity And peace!

@NotTerfNorCis

One question. If the Russians are able to capture Zelenskyy alive, might they put him through a show trial, or would they murder him there and then?

There are a lot of possibilities. So far they have just been trying to assassinate him. I think there's a lot of chance they would try to get some video of him renouncing Ukraine, etc and without getting gory torture and killing of families is something of a Kremlin speciality. Just killing him on capture risks him becoming a martyr, but at the moment they would rather that over his actual leadership

@SonicBroom

Huge appreciation from me for taking the time to share this with us too OP.

One of the points you made about Russians going along with this until it affects them is an interesting one. This style of governance has become normalised, so until there is a change on the ground which affects peoples day to day, as you say the risks of protesting are too great for people to engage with. That worries me as it will take time, but also perhaps waiting for sanctions etc to take effect is the best way of minimising even greater loss of life outside Ukraine, but sadly it doesn’t minimise it inside.

A question from me - what alternatives do the West have and what might they mean?

Unfortunately there aren't really a whole lot of alternatives. Diplomacy is continuing (mainly from Macron, but Germany too) and getting absolutely nowhere as Putin just bare faced refuses to acknowledge there even is a war.

A NATO enforced no fly zone is not on the table and I don't think it will be. It's not so much lack of leadership from the big NATO members as terrors from the small states bordering Russia, who know they would be next.

@Meltinthemiddle

Do you think putin is ill?

This is a red herring in UK press.

It's irrelevant. If you read this thread and/or have your own knowledge of Russian history and its leaders mentality (shared by vast majority if them) you would see that it's not about any illness. That mentality is of grandeur, ruthlessness and power and status obsession. As well as romanticising death and sacrificing others and own alike in the name of the 'empire'. So, he doesn't neee to be ill to be that way - which is a difficult concept for a Western person to understand (I don't mean it in a patronising way, it's just a very different mentality that you haven't been directly exposed to).

@felulageller

Great thread.

Will Ukraine become Russia's Vietnam?

Also given Putin's age what happens when he dies? Does he have a son/successor? Would they have an election? Why was the West not bothering that he's been in power for 20 years?

Putin actually does have children, he has an ex wife and a gymnast lover with twins. There's a lot of carefully worded coverage of it in gossip magazines if you want to check it out.

In terms of succession plans, there is no obvious answer to be honest, but you can see some good discussions:
www.businessinsider.com/russia-putin-succession-plan-2020-6?r=US&IR=T

www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/01/23/putins-succession-strategy-could-be-risky-this-explains-why/

Pm

@ClaudineClare

I agree that OP is posting opinion as fact. For example, OP asserted that Corbyn is a Kremlin sympathiser. I have my issues with Corbyn, but OPs remarks about him don't gell with his recent statement.

Jeremy Corbyn (@jeremycorbyn) Tweeted:
Putin must immediately withdraw troops from #Ukraine and engage in constructive political dialogue. A shocking humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding that must end now t.co/HBoN7RHlMX twitter.com/jeremycorbyn/status/1499699236228808710?s=20&t=lTklsdLuVz9cFl70hZjidQ

I support Ukraine wholeheartedly and I want Putin to pay for his crimes, but propaganda is coming from both sides.

@ClaudineClare unfortunately on this one I would again have to say that I stand very firmly behind this and would suggest you read into this further. Corbyn has been calling for Ukraine to be demilitarised for years and has been a regular contributor on Russian propaganda channels.

Are you aware that within the last week Corbyn spoke at a 'all sides (ie Russians and Ukrainians) are wrong' event, were pamphlets were handed out claiming the US was the aggressor, and where a Ukrainian who tried to speak and say they had been invaded was dragged out? Have you seen the video of Diane Abbott this week?

Did you closely follows Corbyn's actions during the Salisbury fiasco? Have you seen his numerous RT appearances? Or show he hosted Kremlin-linked figures for years? And the stance he took on previous Russian actions?

Calling Corbyn a Kremlin-sympathiser is not just something I would stand behind but if I were sued for libel I would go for a defence of actual fact rather than genuine opinion. Please read about this topic in detail.

www.jewishnews.co.uk/corbyns-stop-the-war-speech-interrupted-by-cries-of-shame-on-you/

and if you look on Twitter you can see clips as well as the papers handed out at that meeting.

I hope you don't mind me chipping in, but re: is Putin ill? I heartily recommend this documentary which demonstrates Aristalese's point that this is not about Putin being ill. Putin is being Putin.

I think the West is putting that line out as many are probably ashamed of their dealings with him. There is a clip in the last episode of the documentary where Putin is singing to a celebrity audience full of Hollywood stars and the like (and politicians I think). They cheer and applaud.

www.channel4.com/programmes/putin-a-russian-spy-story

@PAFMO

In fairness to the OP, pro-Russian Ukrainians are doing the same (opinion=fact) and have been for the last two weeks. I guess it's up to the rest of us to sift the "facts" and do a bit of critical thinking We don't know who the OP is, or what their agenda is. Others on the thread are arguably more transparent. But coming at it very one-sidedly nevertheless

Yes I can't pretend to be pro-Russian in this and I won't be ashamed in that. Putin has brought misery to hundreds of millions for decades and I have no interest in defending actions that are imperialist and take no account for human life. He simply does not respect the right of people to self-determination and I do not think that is a perspective the international community need to 'respect'

Why would Corbyn be a Kremlin sympathiser when Russia is no longer communist or even left wing as we would understand it? (Not questioning that he is, just confused).

@WhatsGoingOn2022 we will need to agree to disagree about Corbyn! As I said, I have my own views about him and don't see him quite the way some on the left who support him do, but I don't think he is the monster he is made out to be either.

One point to ad here I haven't discussed so far: the humanitarian impact of this beyond Ukraine. It's not getting much coverage to date, but Ukraine is one of the major global food producers. They guarantee food security to many countries in the Middle East and Africa. Russia's invasion of Ukraine may mean a humanitarian disaster for countries across the world reliant on this grain, and prices have already shot up. That means ordinary people in states such as Egypt, Afghanistan, Syria, Ethiopia, etc may face starvation.

Please I will say to anyone: regardless of how you and your family feel about Russia and the US, if you don't feel you can take a stance over what is happening to Ukraine, please look at doing what you can to support some of these countries. There is a famine in Afghanistan as we speak too.

www.investmentmonitor.ai/special-focus/ukraine-crisis/countries-exposed-ukrainian-food-exports