The invasion is a Week Old...Part 7

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Unbelievable. Thread 6 is almost full, to be found here : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4495271-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-6?pg=1

Still a fascinating and thoughtful set of documentation of our evolving thoughts, fears, questions, analyses and updates. And still a credit to the eyes, ears and knowledge of those on here.

Pinched from one poster on thread 6 whose name I can't recall:

Latest claims from both sides about casualties
Ukraine's army regularly puts out updates on the damage it says it's inflicting on Russian forces, which continue to press on key cities, particularly in the south.

We should stress that the BBC can't verify this information, but the latest update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces says that approximately 9,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded.

It also says Ukrainian forces have destroyed:

217 tanks
90 artillery systems
31 helicopters
30 planes or other aircraft
For its part, Russia yesterday for the first time gave a specific number for casualties it had suffered in Ukraine, saying 498 Russian soldiers had died and nearly 1,600 had been wounded.

It said it had killed 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and "nationalists".

@AlecTrevelyan006

The West has demonstrated remarkable unity and resolve. To a far greater extent than anyone thought possible.

It is also now clear that Putin cannot win a conventional war against NATO forces. The truly rotten state of Russian conventional armies has been laid bare by the bravery and determination of the Ukrainian people.

It leaves Putin in no doubt what would happen to him if he invaded any NATO country, including the Baltic States and, of course, Poland.

But, sadly, Ukraine will be left largely to fend for itself. EU and NATO expansionism has come to an end. I am surprised that the Baltic States managed to sneak in before Putin put his foot down, but for Ukraine it is too late.

A new Cold War begins and we are back to the tense stand off that I remember in the 1980s.

For a defensive organisation, NATO has done a remarkable job of advancing to the East. The EU has also been fairly provocative, with talk of federalism, a single army and relentless expansion. I entirely see why Putin regards it as a threat. The Chinese response to the situation is also framed in terms of a warning to the West.

I am horrified by the destruction of Ukraine, but I expect that it will be sacrificed by the West on the altar of global security.

The West can do no more to help than its already doing. The Russians are now bogged down in a long war of attrition that will be hugely costly and will ultimately be lost, just as the US lost the Vietnam War and just as the USSR lost the war in Afghanistan back in the 1980s.

I fear that the best that can be done for Ukraine is humanitarian and military aid, together with asylum for any Ukrainian national who wants to escape.

Ironically, this episode shows the weakness, rather than the strength of Russia's position. Not that this will be any comfort for the poor souls in Ukraine.

A very good summation. I see it the same way.

Western powers must do everything they can - by continuing to supply arms to the Ukranian resistance and support its psyops, asymmetric warfare etc - to ensure that Russia remains bogged down and continues to self-destruct and debilitate the Putin regime there.

@CallyfromBlakes7

It's Russian planes I am talking about. They are leaving a massive gap over Russia as well as Ukraine and Belarus unless they are actually flying to places in that area such as Volgograd.

Probably best taken over to a Flightradar forum but…

Ah I see why you mean, for example there’s a Sochi - Moscow flight going a long way east.

Looks like the Russian military want a lot of the airspace around the whole area kept clear, I don’t think it’s any more sinister than anything else we’ve seen the last week plus but who knows…

@Red.... the West have acted with speed, severity and unity never seen before and clear not anticipated by Putin. Domestic audiences firmly behind Ukraine and sanctions.
No-one can 'be sure🙄' of Russia's intentions regarding nuclear escalation, apart from unclear instructions issued by Putin to primarily create panic in the West.

I fucking hate how my phone messes up sentences and fucks with grammar 🤬🤬🤬🙄

Friendly fire incident

[quote valerianaofficiana]@Red.... the West have acted with speed, severity and unity never seen before and clear not anticipated by Putin. Domestic audiences firmly behind Ukraine and sanctions.
No-one can 'be sure🙄' of Russia's intentions regarding nuclear escalation, apart from unclear instructions issued by Putin to primarily create panic in the West.[/quote]
They have this time.

Not in the past though. Thats the problem.

Meanwhile the thing the UK ordinary people will feel harshly; natural gas prices at £4.96 p/therm

@Fiefofum

Friendly fire incident

Given there’s a lot of kit common between both sides I’m surprised we haven’t heard of more TBH.

@Fiefofum The last I had read the Russian forces had reached the outskirts of Kyiv. So sadly everyone will be on very high alert.

Russian state TV has gone full-Soviet now - long features about the fallen soldiers which have been bestowed the title of Russian Hero by direct decree from the president, etc. Any interviews interviews civilians are heavily cut up (think a 10 second video made up of 4 separate clips so you don't get to hear the real conversation, what was asked etc).

Other than that i's a bit a game of subverting the mottos that flash every few seconds...

"Russia has enough medication" actually means they are worried about the lack of it
"The operation is going to plan" = Vladimir Vladimirovich is pissed off that Zelensky has thwarted three assassination attempts
Etc

I just can't watch it anymore, it's sickening. What goes through the minds of those who know the facts and then decide to concoct the twisted shit that is broadcast on Russian state TV??

Given there’s a lot of kit common between both sides I’m surprised we haven’t heard of more TBH.

Dont forget the Russian comms issues.

@FOJN

ITS NOT ABOUT NATO

It's right that this is in bold and capitals. I've heard Putin's speeches and read his essay from last year. It seems very clear he has a fantasy about reunifying the USSR, NATO is a convenient excuse. Ten days ago Finland were not even thinking about joining NATO, this week they are discussing it. Ukraine only ever wanted NATO membership for its own protection. NATO is a defensive force not an offensive one. Putin knows this, his claims are either delusional (quite likely) and/or for the home audience.

I have watched the BBC documentary about the rise of the Nazis, as recommended by several posters here. The parallels with Hitler are undeniable. It hadn't occured to me previously that a dictator would eliminate any critical thinkers from their group of closest advisers because they would be perceived as a threat. I think I assumed they would surround themselves with the brightest minds in order to give themselves the greatest chance of success. In actual fact they surround themselves with people who are willing to say and do whatever is required to gain just a little more power and influence.

I also think it's a mistake to assume we are dealing with a rational mind we are not, it's almost impossible for us to predict what Putin might think or what he might do.

I think it’s overstated too

Going to watch the programme

@RedToothBrush

Yes exactly.

Sanctions in 2014 were barely a speed bump for Putin's regime. Angela Merkel responded by pressing ahead with plans for Nordstream 2, ruling out nuclear energy, and making Germany dependent on Russian gas. The liberal media laughed along with the right-thinking politicians when Trump called them out for failing to properly fund defence in line with NATO obligations. Here in the UK we allowed the London laundromat to continue. We didn't ensure that Ukraine was properly armed to deter a Russian invasion, and we telegraphed that we wouldn't defend them militarily, whilst simultaneously threatening to bring them into our orbit. There's been an apparent lack of clarity in the strategy for dealing with Russia. No doubt soon we'll be confronted with similar problems in Taiwan, and possibly Iran's desire to gain nuclear weapons. We can only hope that there's more long term and clear planning.

The time to prevent this war was years ago.

Quite a lot of emphasis on West mistakes rather than huge appetite of Putin

He’s committed - and probably has been for a while - look at the aggressor I reckon

Who does his laundry? Can't they smear some novichok or something on it

@TheWayTheLightFalls

I also saw something similar about buying digital art from Ukrainian sellers on Etsy a few days ago. Although by this point they might not even be able to deliver that, depending on where they are in Ukraine, so whether that means the transaction would no longer be processed I don't know. (I'm not suggesting they should have to deliver, only that it might affect them being able to collect payment, I dunno?)

I've done this today - the digital art is on automatic download after payment, so the work is delivered and the payment goes through without any action on the seller's part. I understand the risks and limitations of doing it, but it's another way of getting funds to someone directly affected. The woman replied to thank me.

Oh that's great. I haven't ever sold on Etsy so I wasn't sure if it was automatic or if it required them to trigger release of the file manually. I'll definitely have a look at this.

@HeadPain

Who does his laundry? Can't they smear some novichok or something on it

There's been warnings on the issue for years.

www.ft.com/content/6c9cfd92-c188-11e8-95b1-d36dfef1b89a

@HeadPain

Who does his laundry? Can't they smear some novichok or something on it

Or maybe one of his staff could slip polonium-210 in his morning cuppa.

Has much happened with the 40 mile convoy? And any escalation of Russia's nuclear alert level? I'm a bit of an empath and take on others feeling easily so it's been much better than the last few days where I was constantly fighting tears thinking of all the poor families trying to get out, men fighting for their homes etc, so have been trying to avoid the news and social media the last few days. I've barely watched TV because it seems it's pretty much the talk of any show even entertainment/chat shows .

@RedToothBrush

Given there’s a lot of kit common between both sides I’m surprised we haven’t heard of more TBH.

Dont forget the Russian comms issues.

True, could be a bit of that but a lot of the “friend or foe” bit will be down to using mark one eyeball and trying to work out whether somebody is wearing a yellow band or not/whether a vehicle has a white Z painted on it..Fog of war and all that.

BBC reporting that Ukrainian and Russian officials are expected to hold their third round of talks this weekend to try to end the fighting triggered by Moscow's invasion.

"The third leg could take place tomorrow or the day after - we are in constant contact," Ukrainian presidential advisor Mykhailo Podolyak said.

@LampLighter414

Has much happened with the 40 mile convoy? And any escalation of Russia's nuclear alert level? I'm a bit of an empath and take on others feeling easily so it's been much better than the last few days where I was constantly fighting tears thinking of all the poor families trying to get out, men fighting for their homes etc, so have been trying to avoid the news and social media the last few days. I've barely watched TV because it seems it's pretty much the talk of any show even entertainment/chat shows .

The convoy …brief reports yesterday there had been at least one air strike on it, not since further confirmed. Lots of images on other websites showing some quite high value equipment (not just tanks but mobile SAM batteries, mobile radar units) seemingly abandoned/even being towed away by the locals using tractors in some cases ….so no idea really but unfortunately it’s seeming demise hasn’t stopped Russian advances.

Nuclear alert level reported as unchanged from wherever it ended up after Putin’s comment the other day.

@LampLighter414

Has much happened with the 40 mile convoy? And any escalation of Russia's nuclear alert level? I'm a bit of an empath and take on others feeling easily so it's been much better than the last few days where I was constantly fighting tears thinking of all the poor families trying to get out, men fighting for their homes etc, so have been trying to avoid the news and social media the last few days. I've barely watched TV because it seems it's pretty much the talk of any show even entertainment/chat shows .

I'd say after the nuclear power plant fiasco, anything can happen

When worlds collide. Maybe we need to send Stonewall in to check their thinking ?

An almost light hearted video of Russian kit being err…borrowed here:

twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1499748267692892163?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1499748267692892163%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=