The invasion is a Week Old...Part 7

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Unbelievable. Thread 6 is almost full, to be found here : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4495271-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-6?pg=1

Still a fascinating and thoughtful set of documentation of our evolving thoughts, fears, questions, analyses and updates. And still a credit to the eyes, ears and knowledge of those on here.

Pinched from one poster on thread 6 whose name I can't recall:

Latest claims from both sides about casualties
Ukraine's army regularly puts out updates on the damage it says it's inflicting on Russian forces, which continue to press on key cities, particularly in the south.

We should stress that the BBC can't verify this information, but the latest update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces says that approximately 9,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded.

It also says Ukrainian forces have destroyed:

217 tanks
90 artillery systems
31 helicopters
30 planes or other aircraft
For its part, Russia yesterday for the first time gave a specific number for casualties it had suffered in Ukraine, saying 498 Russian soldiers had died and nearly 1,600 had been wounded.

It said it had killed 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and "nationalists".

Shashank Joshi @shashj
Giant red flag here. The risk of CW use is real. “Offering no evidence, Lavrov said Russia had information that the United States was worried about the prospect of losing control over what he described as chemical & biological laboratories in Ukraine”
www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-lavrov-no-doubt-that-solution-ukraine-crisis-will-be-found-2022-03-03/
Lavrov says Russia will continue Ukraine war till 'the end'

Cheryl Rofer @CherylRofer
No chemical and biological warfare laboratories in Ukraine. Like practically every other country, they are party to the Chemical Weapons Convention.

Put in context:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60600487
'My city is being shelled, but my mum in Russia won’t believe me'

Simon Schama @simon_schama·
"Ukrainians shelling their own people"- straight out of Guernica playbook when Franco people insisted the town had been blown up by Republicans from Bilbao

Weddady @weddady
Not unlike Syria where Russian propaganda pushed a narrative that dead civilians were actors, and that the rebels gassed themselves with chemical weapons. A lot of Westerners bought it.

Put in context:

Putin is widely thought to come to power off the back of a false flag op in Chechnya where a block of civilian flats got bombed.

Before the war started, the US warned in January that they feared about the possibility of a false flag op as a military pretext.

That has been ramped up in recent days by a number of Westerners and the Ukrainians themselves.

This should be taken seriously. Russia HAVE used CW.

Its' 25 pages, no I haven't read all of the thread.

Can I just ask - has anyone else heard some of the foreign media outlets reporting that it was actually the Ukrainians who hit the nuclear place, not the Russians?

I'm trying to find a source.

If it's this lot then whilst not quite up to date, it is factual
www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2022/02/exercise-iron-surge-bolsters-nato/

Anyone here like watching planes on Flightradar? I wonder what you make of two NATO Airbus 330s (ie big planes) spending most of yesterday and already several hours today, flying round and round in the same spot, in circles together over western/central Poland? What could they be doing? Just interested if anyone knows. Looking or listening for something? But why such big planes then? (This is not supposed to be any alarmist type of post, I was just interested as they are basically right over my DDs head and so I noticed them).

Catherine Rampell @crampell
Ukrainian Navy says it purposely sank the flagship of its Black Sea fleet on Thursday to prevent the warship from being seized by the Russian military

www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/04/world/russia-ukraine?referringSource=articleShare#ukraines-navy-says-it-purposely-sank-its-flagship-black-sea-vessel
Ukraine’s Navy says it purposely sank its flagship Black Sea vessel.

Thats really not a good sign...

The use of chemical weapons in Ukraine is something the west has been concerned about from the start.

I remember when Russia positioned itself as being the toughest country in stopping the spread of jihadism (Chechnya, Syria) but now we are seeing that they are prepared to whip up and utilise any kind of anti-West feeling.

This is interesting on the economic situation www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/archive/2022/03/vladimir-putin-economy-sanctions-swift-fallout/623330/

An interesting point that - NK aside - this level of shunning of a developed economy is pretty much unprecedented. Even the Iron curtain existed in a far less globalised world. It could set precedents for how future conflicts are handled too.

Naomi O'Leary @NaomiOhReally
Major remaining holes in sanctions:
- EU gas purchases piping money directly to the Russian state.
- UK naming 15 sanctioned individuals vs the EU's 680, and giving a bizarre weeks-long lead in time that allows assets to be liquidated and moved in front of our eyes.

@theDudesmummy

Anyone here like watching planes on Flightradar? I wonder what you make of two NATO Airbus 330s (ie big planes) spending most of yesterday and already several hours today, flying round and round in the same spot, in circles together over western/central Poland? What could they be doing? Just interested if anyone knows. Looking or listening for something? But why such big planes then? (This is not supposed to be any alarmist type of post, I was just interested as they are basically right over my DDs head and so I noticed them).

Is it not to refuel the jets

twitter.com/sandumaiamd/status/1499426835201150978

A tweet from the President of Moldova.

My DD spent some time there just a few months ago, they are a very proud people and doing all they can to help Ukrainians.

@yoolia

The use of chemical weapons in Ukraine is something the west has been concerned about from the start.

Yep, but when Lavrov starts explicitly mentioning it for a domestic audience like that, they are preparing the stage...

@CoastalWave

Its' 25 pages, no I haven't read all of the thread.

Can I just ask - has anyone else heard some of the foreign media outlets reporting that it was actually the Ukrainians who hit the nuclear place, not the Russians?

I'm trying to find a source.

The Kremlin, most likely!

@Thewayshetalks

China to block broadcast of Premier League matches this weekend over displays of Ukraine support Reports are emerging that China will block the broadcast of all Premier League matches this weekend due to various planned displays of support for Ukraine. China are key allies of Russia, and the country's response to the invasion is being closely watched by observers who hope leader Xi Jinping may use his influence to help deescalate the conflict.

This is from sky news updates

The article posted yesterday in this thread (or may have been the previous) about China regretting their getting so cosy with Russia (or more precisely Putin) gave pause for thought. If they are going to walk this back a bit, it will be without any hint that they messed up in the first place.

www.reuters.com/world/china/china-led-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank-freezes-russia-lending-2022-03-03/

I can't see such an action happening without top-level agreement. So what's the score ?

@theDudesmummy

Anyone here like watching planes on Flightradar? I wonder what you make of two NATO Airbus 330s (ie big planes) spending most of yesterday and already several hours today, flying round and round in the same spot, in circles together over western/central Poland? What could they be doing? Just interested if anyone knows. Looking or listening for something? But why such big planes then? (This is not supposed to be any alarmist type of post, I was just interested as they are basically right over my DDs head and so I noticed them).

Have already posted this some ages back

www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60612255

The US and UK globemasters and other NATO allies you will see looping are generally in air-refuelling planes

@elephantmarchingin I dont see any NATO/US jets around there, but I think that Flightradar does not "see" all military aircraft, so that may well be the case.

aargh, not ages, pages

Try Military Freedar

@theyhavenothingbuttheaudacity I think the no fly zone would have been a massive error on the side of the west. We are on the brink of causing a further war nato know this and are walking the line

@theDudesmummy

Anyone here like watching planes on Flightradar? I wonder what you make of two NATO Airbus 330s (ie big planes) spending most of yesterday and already several hours today, flying round and round in the same spot, in circles together over western/central Poland? What could they be doing? Just interested if anyone knows. Looking or listening for something? But why such big planes then? (This is not supposed to be any alarmist type of post, I was just interested as they are basically right over my DDs head and so I noticed them).

They are tankers there to carry out mid-air refuelling of jets, etc.

I’m near (

[quote theDudesmummy]@elephantmarchingin I dont see any NATO/US jets around there, but I think that Flightradar does not "see" all military aircraft, so that may well be the case.[/quote]
I think they can 'hide' themselves. Normally a little circle/oval routes are used to refuel

That is all very interesting, thanks. My DD, in Poland, was also wondering what they were!

ITS NOT ABOUT NATO

It's right that this is in bold and capitals. I've heard Putin's speeches and read his essay from last year. It seems very clear he has a fantasy about reunifying the USSR, NATO is a convenient excuse. Ten days ago Finland were not even thinking about joining NATO, this week they are discussing it. Ukraine only ever wanted NATO membership for its own protection. NATO is a defensive force not an offensive one. Putin knows this, his claims are either delusional (quite likely) and/or for the home audience.

I have watched the BBC documentary about the rise of the Nazis, as recommended by several posters here. The parallels with Hitler are undeniable. It hadn't occured to me previously that a dictator would eliminate any critical thinkers from their group of closest advisers because they would be perceived as a threat. I think I assumed they would surround themselves with the brightest minds in order to give themselves the greatest chance of success. In actual fact they surround themselves with people who are willing to say and do whatever is required to gain just a little more power and influence.

I also think it's a mistake to assume we are dealing with a rational mind we are not, it's almost impossible for us to predict what Putin might think or what he might do.

@theDudesmummy I mentioned upthread if there was a flight radar thread. The mumsnet App on iPhone is shit and can't find one.

Do you know if there is one?

It's fascinating watching the flights and wondering what is going on. Especially the oligarchs'!

@theDudesmummy

Anyone here like watching planes on Flightradar? I wonder what you make of two NATO Airbus 330s (ie big planes) spending most of yesterday and already several hours today, flying round and round in the same spot, in circles together over western/central Poland? What could they be doing? Just interested if anyone knows. Looking or listening for something? But why such big planes then? (This is not supposed to be any alarmist type of post, I was just interested as they are basically right over my DDs head and so I noticed them).

A reporter went with them, its on BBC front page, if the same ones. They are radar planes to monitor what Russian planes are doing, where they are etc. They look like offices inside the planes with computers.