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The invasion is a Week Old...Part 7

999 replies

Damnloginpopup · 03/03/2022 20:56

Unbelievable. Thread 6 is almost full, to be found here : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4495271-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-6?pg=1

Still a fascinating and thoughtful set of documentation of our evolving thoughts, fears, questions, analyses and updates. And still a credit to the eyes, ears and knowledge of those on here.

Pinched from one poster on thread 6 whose name I can't recall:

Latest claims from both sides about casualties
Ukraine's army regularly puts out updates on the damage it says it's inflicting on Russian forces, which continue to press on key cities, particularly in the south.

We should stress that the BBC can't verify this information, but the latest update from the General Staff of the Armed Forces says that approximately 9,000 Russian personnel have been killed or wounded.

It also says Ukrainian forces have destroyed:

217 tanks
90 artillery systems
31 helicopters
30 planes or other aircraft
For its part, Russia yesterday for the first time gave a specific number for casualties it had suffered in Ukraine, saying 498 Russian soldiers had died and nearly 1,600 had been wounded.

It said it had killed 2,870 Ukrainian soldiers and "nationalists".

OP posts:
Thread gallery
16
alltheapples · 04/03/2022 13:28

@RedToothBrush thanks that is really interesting.

RedToothBrush · 04/03/2022 13:29

Re NATO I will repeat this again.

Yesterday 17:21RedToothBrush

Max Seddon @maxseddon
Putin speaking to his security council.

"I will never abandon my conviction that Russians and Ukrainians are one people [...] but the way the battle is going shows we are fighting neo-Nazis."

He claims Ukraine is using civilians and foreigners as "human shields."

Essentially Putin is responding to the international criticism of the huge civilian toll of the war in Ukraine – even from allies – by saying it’s all Ukrainians Nazis who did it. “Our soldiers and officers are trying to prevent civilian casualties and suffer losses themselves.”

Significant that Putin is publicly addressing the Russian casualties in Ukraine. Families are getting payouts of as much as 7m rubles (about $65,000)

“Russian soldiers and officers act courageously, like real heroes. Our armed forces completely understand what they are fighting for and know they are right…giving their lives to save their fellow soldiers. In battle our armed forces and the Donbas militia show mass heroism.”

Putin: “The special operation in Ukraine is going according to plan and in full compliance with the timetable. All tasks set during the special operation in Ukraine are being accomplished successfully.”

At the end, Putin held a moment of silence for Russia's victims.

This time, the security council was held on Putin's Zoom and they didn't even show any of its members – it was just Putin speaking in a room for a few minutes.

Julia loffe @julieioffe
Putin: "I will never abandon my conviction that Russians and Ukrainians are one people."

I welcome your NATO takes at this time.

See my above point about fracturing audiences.

ITS NOT ABOUT NATO

But its a good way to split Western opinions.

RedToothBrush · 04/03/2022 13:30

Sorry i should clarify that last tweet

Julia loffe @julieioffe
Putin: "I will never abandon my conviction that Russians and Ukrainians are one people."

I welcome your NATO takes at this time.

Then my point in last couple of lines.

Fiefofum · 04/03/2022 13:38

@RedToothBrush

Mark Scott *@markscott82* OK, so the sanctions on Russian state media appear to be having an impact. Over last 24 hours, OK, so the sanctions on Russian state media appear to be having an impact. Over last 24 hours, Facebook engagement for Kremlin outlets dropped 12% — note massive drop for RT France.

BUT — engagement for Western media also fell 10%.

Wedaddy @wedaddy
Notice how nobody is doing anything about RT Arabic.. the West will come to regret this. Big swaths of Arab public opinion are high on Kremlin propaganda

On the third night of the invasion i was talking to friends at a social gathering. I was the odd one out. Everyone was showing me RT Arabic propaganda about Ukraine. I learned a valuable lesson: Russian propaganda leverages effectively anger at the Iraq war to Arab audiences

With Arab audiences, Kremlin propaganda plays an effective game: "If America can flaunt international norms, why can't Putin do it?", Or "Ukraine is a Russian province that the West egged on against Russia." "When did the West ever face consequences for the Iraq war, Palestine?"

Basically, what Kremlin propaganda does is play with Arab grievances against the West rather than anything else. What i found works is bringing up Putin's war in Syria, his double-sided dealings with Assad/Iran/Israel. However the propaganda has been at play for years..

The other reaction I got was: "Both Russia and the West will kill us and get away with it. Why should we care when we see footage of Ukrainian soldiers dipping bullets in pig fat to kill Muslim Chechens. They ALL hate us, Russians, Ukrainians and Westerners."

Also, something that came up frequently was the images of fleeing Blacks and Arabs being prevented from exiting Ukraine or entering Poland. This is the aspect that got most attention in the Arab world more than the rest of the war.

In other words, people in the Arab world, like any other region, will view the same event from their own vantage point, and will filter it through their own recent history. Effective propaganda leverages the quintessential rule: know your audience, and cater to it.

The most interesting answer I got in that discussion: "look this is not our war. Let them sort it among themselves. They'll end up starving us all if wheat prices don't stop rising"

I've noticed this and have been concerned.

The Kremlin are targeting international fractures in very particular ways (and have done for a few years).

In the last few days there's definitely been trying to drive a wedge between the Anglosphere and European countries. (Not helped by unwillingness to add proper clout to sanctions...). And there's definitely one going on between the West and Rest of the World (particularly arab world).

Worth keeping a close eye on. Crazy shit sticks.

This wider context is important to be aware of - the art of divide and conquer. Putrid Putin is unfortunately good at this.
FatFucker · 04/03/2022 13:38

Great post @AlecTrevelyan006

alltheapples · 04/03/2022 13:39

@valerianaofficiana and yet you didn't call those women hysterical who were talking about nuclear war. That was very alarmist.

MarshaBradyo · 04/03/2022 13:41

Interesting to hear Gordon Brown talk about countries desperate to join NATO in 90s, he used the words begging to join

He admitted the mistake was not bringing Russia into the orbit of discussion but it does show the impetus was strongly from the countries themselves

Abra1d1 · 04/03/2022 13:42

Yes, he was interesting.

alltheapples · 04/03/2022 13:43

@RedToothBrush yes you can see what Putin is trying to do with public opinion. It may sadly be working as you previously outlined in some Arab countries. In the west, though I think Ukraine is winning the propaganda war by a long shot.

Fiefofum · 04/03/2022 13:44

Also, I would be cautious of those suggesting we censor this thread due to the vulnerable anxious types. If they cannot deal with discussion about an invasion and war, they should not be on these threads. I don’t agree with scaremongering but this is a serious situation and the discussion should be free to discuss ‘scary things’. There are plenty of MN parking threads and people who are really suffering should take responsibility for their mental health, take themselves offline and go for a walk. I say this as someone who is clinically depressed and anxious herself, primarily for other non-war reasons.

elephantmarchingin · 04/03/2022 13:44

Re no fly zone 1 just come in on bbc 'He also says the Western military alliance would not set up a no-flyzone over Ukraine nor send its troops there but promises other help to Kyiv and urged President Vladimir Putin to end the invasion immediately.'

toastfiend · 04/03/2022 13:50

@Fiefofum

Also, I would be cautious of those suggesting we censor this thread due to the vulnerable anxious types. If they cannot deal with discussion about an invasion and war, they should not be on these threads. I don’t agree with scaremongering but this is a serious situation and the discussion should be free to discuss ‘scary things’. There are plenty of MN parking threads and people who are really suffering should take responsibility for their mental health, take themselves offline and go for a walk. I say this as someone who is clinically depressed and anxious herself, primarily for other non-war reasons.
I agree that the thread shouldn't be censored, I get anxiety and I've been very ill with it in the past, fortunately now largely controlled, so I am sympathetic to it, but ultimately it's down to individuals to manage what they expose themselves to in a public space.

However, I also think posters need to take responsibility for what they post and how. Scaremongering about the British military being in Estonia - which is fairly unremarkable in itself - is completely unnecessary and quite irresponsible in terms of creating panic where there doesn't need to be any, and panic and fear just play straight into Putin's hands.

yoolia · 04/03/2022 13:54

people who are really suffering should take responsibility for their mental health, take themselves offline and go for a walk

People who are really suffering often simply aren't able to do that unfortunately.

I agree we should be allowed to discuss things but certain things veer off into outright scaremongering which personally I don't think is OK.

alltheapples · 04/03/2022 13:54

So are Sky News being irresponsible by reporting a convoy of British tanks and lorries moving across Estonia to the border?

CallyfromBlakes7 · 04/03/2022 13:55

I would be cautious of those suggesting we censor this thread due to the vulnerable anxious types

I agree, we don't need trigger and content warnings. If you are that worried stay away from the news and these threads. People know what the thread is about.

CallyfromBlakes7 · 04/03/2022 13:56

@alltheapples

So are Sky News being irresponsible by reporting a convoy of British tanks and lorries moving across Estonia to the border?
It's factual. Is anyone really surprised that defence forces are being reinforced in a NATO state bordering Russia?
theyhavenothingbuttheaudacity · 04/03/2022 13:56

@elephantmarchingin

Re no fly zone 1 just come in on bbc 'He also says the Western military alliance would not set up a no-flyzone over Ukraine nor send its troops there but promises other help to Kyiv and urged President Vladimir Putin to end the invasion immediately.'
What other help can we offer practically It's so utterly depressing to imagine how the Ukrainians are feeling. Their spirit is amazing but they must be horrified
EsmaCannonball · 04/03/2022 13:57

Dominic Waghorn, reporting from Russia, has just said that using the words 'war' or 'invasion' in relation to the invasion of Ukraine can now potentially get you 15 years in jail.

On the subject of this not being about NATO, a blue tick on Twitter pointed out that if Ukraine is absorbed into Russia then Russia will be surrounded by even more NATO countries. So much for Vlad wanting a buffer zone.

yoolia · 04/03/2022 13:59

So are Sky News being irresponsible by reporting a convoy of British tanks and lorries moving across Estonia to the border?

No, assuming it was a factual report and not something like "NATO convoy speeds towards Russia via Estonia".

These differences are important.

FatFredsFriedEgg · 04/03/2022 14:02

@alltheapples

So are Sky News being irresponsible by reporting a convoy of British tanks and lorries moving across Estonia to the border?
Do you think Russia get their information on troop movements in the Baltic states from Sky News?
alltheapples · 04/03/2022 14:03

@yoolia Honestly I am a bit pissed at being attacked for posting here what CNN said. While there have been loads of lies posted on this thread that are pure Russian propaganda that hardly anyone challenges.
But i will leave it as I think you and a few others just see me as an easy target.

toastfiend · 04/03/2022 14:04

@alltheapples

So are Sky News being irresponsible by reporting a convoy of British tanks and lorries moving across Estonia to the border?
If it's without any context - I.e. we have an existing presence out there, this is a reinforcement of that existing presence and not an escalation - then yes, I think they are, because it leaves room for people to completely misinterpret it and become concerned and worried, which then spreads, as has happened on this thread.
toastfiend · 04/03/2022 14:05

@yoolia

So are Sky News being irresponsible by reporting a convoy of British tanks and lorries moving across Estonia to the border?

No, assuming it was a factual report and not something like "NATO convoy speeds towards Russia via Estonia".

These differences are important.

Exactly.
MarshaBradyo · 04/03/2022 14:06

Just hearing that from GB I’ve moved further from idea that allowing countries to join NATO, when they were so keen, was less about being goady (as suggested in pp) but more optimistic but with oversight

alltheapples · 04/03/2022 14:06

@FatFredsFriedEgg of course not. The movement of troops was reported by Euronews last night. I do not know where they got their information from. I assume Sky News did not report it until they had verified it. That verification will have included the source of drone footage showing troop movements.
If you mean did NATO or some government source provide the footage, then yes that is a possibility. The footage does not look of an amateur quality. Or it may have been taken by a news service based in EStonia.

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