The Invasion is ongoing...Part 6

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Things are ramping up. No end in site as yet.

Link to thread 5 here: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4494173-The-Invasion-is-ongoing-Part-5?pg=1

I've looked at a few posters on these threads and it's shocking (not) the number that have no posting history beyond a week or two ago and are only posting on "topical" threads rather than the usual mixture you'd see with a "normal" user

I've recently changed my name but have been posting on other threads as well.

I am a bit concerned at the extent of the sanctions - I think they could go too far. We need some engagement in Russia. One example is a bit of a silly one, but stopping parkrun in Russia. That just seems unnecessary. It's not elite sport.

And British universities stopping their exchange programmes with Russia and telling students to come home. MFL students have already had their years abroad disrupted with covid and Brexit and now this. I would have thought that we needed people who understood Russia and spoke the language well.

I must admit, this isn't something I was aware of.

"...on Dec. 17, the Kremlin demanded that NATO deployments return to the borders that the alliance maintained a quarter century ago, a change that would end NATO’s presence in places like the Baltic countries — the three nations that escaped Moscow’s domination just a few decades ago. Moscow specifically called for the removal of NATO forces and weapons from alliance members like Romania and Bulgaria, the latter of which doesn’t even border Ukraine. The Kremlin has also issued threats regarding potential NATO expansion into countries like Sweden and Finland, which have seen a clear uptick in coordination with the alliance.

Ukraine may be the locus of Moscow’s ire right now. But, by all appearances, Putin increasingly wants to rewrite Europe’s security order wholesale: to roll back the democratic, NATO-led gains of the past two decades, all to redound to Moscow’s benefit. All by launching what could become the greatest war Europe has seen in nearly a century, with all of the bloodshed and destruction attendant — none of which will be limited to Ukraine."

www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/why-does-russia-want-invade-ukraine-ask-putin-ncna1288996

@yoolia

I think a lot of people are conflating the EU and NATO. Joining the EU is significantly less provocative than joining NATO.

I would say it's slightly less provocative.

Putin sees the EU as a sort of trojan horse for NATO -- he does not make a big distinction between them. Remember that this whole war started in 2013-14 over Ukraine wanting an association agreement with the EU, not NATO.

But I agree that it's not quite as provocative as say Finland joining NATO.

@yoolia

BTW I don't feel any worse after seeing that Macron/Putin call. It has been obvious all along that what he wanted was Ukraine. All of Ukraine. Not just East Ukraine, all of it. This isn't new and sobering information. This is what it has always been about. One of two things will happen now, the first of which is incredibly unlikely:

1. Someone close to him will take Putin out;
2. Ukraine will be taken by Russia, but will end up with guerilla warfare. The West will probably continue to provide weapons/intelligence to the guerillas but that's as far as it will go unless he makes a move on a NATO country. Sanctions continue and Russia is fucked. Putin eventually dies and it continues to be fucked under a new leader.

So no nuclear war but a whole heap of pain and misery. That's my analysis.

I think that's probably about right, Although if a) Putin is still alive and b) manages to 'successfully' take Ukraine, will he be satisfied with that, or go for something else to add to the collection?

@CallyfromBlakes7, you must be joking. Of course universities need to tell their students to come home from Russia. Russia is about to declare martial law! Would you want your 20 year old stuck there?

I have been following all of these threads but not posted anything as I have no real knowledge to be able to contribute.

I keep telling myself I need to step away from the internet/MN but it's almost like I've become obsessed with following what is happening.

Is anyone else feeling so sick with worry? I don't want to be left alone at the moment, I have a constant sinking feeling, struggling to eat and sleep and can't shake the thought of a nuclear war.

I have a 2 year old and right now I'm feeling incredibly guilty for bringing her into this shit show of a world. I wish all this would stop. I wish the people with higher power would realise how this is affecting normal civilians who just want to get on with normal day to day life. Every morning I wake up and hope that there has been a ceasefire and that this would all just be over.

I wanted to start a new thread but feel there have been too many so far and don't want to be jumped on for scaremongering.

Yoolia

I wouldn't be too sure.
Most of Putin's general will have beloved children and grandchildren they Will be upset, crying... hammering them about a nuclear war... distraught etc!!

Everyone Wii be teething.

The other issues is, unlike the Soviet era where people did believe in And follow an " ideology" for which they may be willing too die for... there is nothing too believe in here.

@yoolia

BTW I don't feel any worse after seeing that Macron/Putin call. It has been obvious all along that what he wanted was Ukraine. All of Ukraine. Not just East Ukraine, all of it. This isn't new and sobering information. This is what it has always been about. One of two things will happen now, the first of which is incredibly unlikely:

1. Someone close to him will take Putin out;
2. Ukraine will be taken by Russia, but will end up with guerilla warfare. The West will probably continue to provide weapons/intelligence to the guerillas but that's as far as it will go unless he makes a move on a NATO country. Sanctions continue and Russia is fucked. Putin eventually dies and it continues to be fucked under a new leader.

So no nuclear war but a whole heap of pain and misery. That's my analysis.

I’d thought that too re what he wanted, and this seems likely. Awful though

@yoolia

FWIW I don't actually hold with the narrative that if he gets Ukraine he then goes after Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and so on. I think he will stick with Ukraine - that will be a major victory for him, whether it's a pile of rubble or not.

I also v much doubt he's got years and years left to live, that's the other thing to hold on to.

He might be like the Queen, creaking on til nearly 100. Unbearable thought in Putin’s case.

@Bluebellsunderthetrees Britain has committed human rights abuses. Does that give Putin the right to invade us?

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/building-sanctions-case-against-abramovich-and-oligarchs-may-take-months-r8096scc6

Funny how the EU can manage it, isn't it?

What does that tell us.

FWIW I don't actually hold with the narrative that if he gets Ukraine he then goes after Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and so on. I think he will stick with Ukraine nor do I @yoolia
I doubt he even wants west Ukraine, far too decadent and an awful risk for insurgents

He might be like the Queen, creaking on til nearly 100.

I think that is pretty unlikely given the state of him at the moment.

In terms of arms control, there was for example a nuclear non-proliferation treaty between the US and Russia up until the US withdrew in 2002.

You're thinking of the ABM Treaty, which George Bush withdrew from in 2002 (one of the many many stupid things he did that led us to this point). This was a treaty limiting missile defence systems. Bush said the US needed to withdraw because it needed to expand its missile defences against potential Iranian attack (total BS).

The US and Russia still have a nuclear arms control treaty, New START, in place. It was extended last year through to 2026. Who knows what will happen now though, it's very worrying.

I know a lot of people are worried about the nuclear angle, I might suggest having a look at the ICAN website -- the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons:

www.icanw.org/

They won the Nobel Prize a few years ago and have done pretty well with the international treaty to ban all nuclear weapons.

The website has ways to get involved with the movement. Ordinary people have made such a huge difference in arms control efforts over the years, maybe some of you would find this interesting.

@CallyfromBlakes7

I've looked at a few posters on these threads and it's shocking (not) the number that have no posting history beyond a week or two ago and are only posting on "topical" threads rather than the usual mixture you'd see with a "normal" user

I've recently changed my name but have been posting on other threads as well.

I am a bit concerned at the extent of the sanctions - I think they could go too far. We need some engagement in Russia. One example is a bit of a silly one, but stopping parkrun in Russia. That just seems unnecessary. It's not elite sport.

And British universities stopping their exchange programmes with Russia and telling students to come home. MFL students have already had their years abroad disrupted with covid and Brexit and now this. I would have thought that we needed people who understood Russia and spoke the language well.

Russia is about to feel the full extent of the sanctions, and it will be very, very tough. Also, there is talk of martial law. No university can take responsibility for exchange students there.

@holliem91 I also have young children and feel guilty giving them life. Not sleeping and have lost a whole stone in weight since last week. It's just bloody awful and I'm heartbroken for the whole world. Who would've thought that this would be happening in 2022 after the recent Covid shitshow.

One thing that has been comforting is that every time someone posts something on this thread that is comforting and reassuring, I screenshot it and look back on them when I'm feeling anxious.

Is anyone else feeling so sick with worry? I don't want to be left alone at the moment, I have a constant sinking feeling, struggling to eat and sleep and can't shake the thought of a nuclear war

I felt like that at the weekend but after watching the last few days of this I feel less like that.

I think Putin will stop at Ukraine if he gets it (which he almost certainly will - the Ukrainians have been absolute heroes but the Russian army is too large). I think NATO is sensible and does not want to provoke him (thank god the grown ups are in charge in the states - look at the fact they cancelled a nuclear missile test this week because they didn't want it misinterpreted).

That is no comfort to the people of Ukraine, but maybe it is some comfort to you.

Bloody hell no university would be organising a Russian exchange at the moment. The FO advice is not to travel to Russia. It is an unstable situation and in spite of people who have clear opinions, no one really knows what will happen next.

@holliem91
No, you are not the only one sick with worry over this.
No one REALLY knows what’s going on, or what will happen..

Nobody wants Nuclear ☢️ war, it’s all so senseless and expensive in terms of lives lost.

What is wrong with the human race?
It cannot seem to live in peace.

I really do not think there will be a nuclear war. There will be price rises.

So a European intelligence official is claiming that Russian state security is planning to carry out public executions in Ukraine.

There are rumours within Russia about Putin enacting martial law and people are scrambling to leave.

Putin and his foreign minister are both using the stories about racism on the borders to claim that Ukraine is a Nazi state and foreigners, particularly from India, are being held hostage or as human shields by the Ukrainians.

Bastards.

Please tell me I am not the only one to have never noticed Kaliningrad even existed

@alltheapples

I really do not think there will be a nuclear war. There will be price rises.

This. I might worry about nuclear war but my rational brain says it’s unlikely.

This isn't factually true though - there is a huge Russian speaking population in Ukraine who still consider themselves Ukrainian and, most importantly, want nothing to do with Putin's Russia and voted repeatedly against pro-Russian presidents (incl two revolutions in the last 20 years)*

Indeed Ukrainian MPs of both the governing party and main opposition parties are fluent Russian speakers. Presumably no one thinks that they want to become part of Russia?

Lesia Vasylenko@lesiavasylenko
#Ukraine Parliament sits in person today to vote essential defence and security laws.A quick and tense session.We sing the national anthem in unity as we begin our session in the most targeted building in all of Ukraine. #LoveUkraine

Theres a video of them in sesson singing.

Unreal. And amazing.