The Invasion is ongoing...Part 5

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Unbelievable to think that a few days ago the world was starting to look more positive..ye we find ourselves on a fifth thread discussing the horrors of the war in Europe. An unbelievable change has happened to the world we live in.

Some incredible firmed posts have been written, informing, discussing, and occasionally derailing. Let's hope the news is more positive by the end of this one.

[quote ClaudineClare]I think I have found it, if anyone else is interested.
www.channel4.com/programmes/putin-a-russian-spy-story?cntsrc=social_share_android_putin_a_russian_spy_story[/quote]
Yes this was the documentary, it’s 3 episodes (I watched them all today working from home). Not sure when it was made but had the Crimea take over in it etc.

It did mention sport and how important this is for Putin and Russia, as it was in Soviet times, so I think being banned from all these sporting events is going to hurt.

There’s also a documentary on Netflix about the Ukraine revolution ‘Winter on Fire’. The Ukrainian police can also be very brutal! I pray the people can get the peaceful, European democracy so many of them want, I’m sure they will in the future but I think it’s going to take many years of hardship.

Reportedly US pilots of Wart Hog helicopter gunships were themselves sickened at the maybe 10s of thousands they slaughtered without any fightback.

For the record, the A10 "Warthog" is a fixed-wing aircraft, not a helicopter. There are still hundreds of them stationed in Europe.

@WeQuestionEverything if you go down that route and Putin's power holds then be very, very afraid. Because WW3 will truly have begun and where these things end with the evil weapons we now have god only knows we will be entering Dr Strangelove's territory. Thankfully the unofficial red lines of engagement are understood. Johnson was clear when he was ambushed by that brave Ukrainian journalist today and for that I am grateful.

@DrBlackbird

Declare themselves neutral; incorporate them closely into the EU - exclude any membership in a hypothetical future EU military; rule out ever re-developing nuclear weapons

Ukraine retains its independence and can pursue economic prosperity through the EU

Putin can present this as a victory - Ukraine demilitarised, NATO expansion checked

This is the ideal outcome. But still the senseless loss of life for both sides continues..

I agree, although with a slight variation that I think Ukraine will need to be some sort of federation with at least 2-3 autonomous states within it. The only way the Western and Eastern Ukraine will unite is if they have strong leadership, but still feel they get a say in their future. I know Zelensky is the world hero, but he is part of the problem. It takes someone with experience and great strategic overview to navigate the geo-political scene.

@MarshaBradyo

Thanks. I think that we've already allowed sentiment to overule rationality. I believed that after the tragedies of Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, that people may have learnt, but that seems not to be the case. We're rushing headlong into something, with the media ramping up tensions and depicting an increase in scale as inevitable - based on stirring up emotions.

Davies and Ellwood have backed establishing a no fly zone (something Biden has ruled out because they simply won't risk escalating to direct military confrontation). Labour has treated the Ukranian refugees as a political football by demanding their unlimited and unvetted acceptance - against the specific advice of the security services. I didn't believe that any minister would be stupid or self-serving enough to see this as an opportunity to play political games, but that seems not to be the case.

I don't believe that future historians will look back and believe that Ukraine's independence (or ability to align itself with NATO) could justify risking or entering into nuclear war.

Ukraine asked to join NATO in 2018. They were told ‘no’. And it doesn’t seem to me that what we’re seeing can be characterised as a ‘flashpoint’.

There have been intense diplomatic efforts with Putin for at least weeks. Maybe I’ve missed it, but I’ve not heard Putin announce that he’s made x and y demands which haven’t been met.

Except today the Russian foreign minister Lavrov demanded the removal of US nuclear weapons fromEurope. After Putin has threatened all European/Eastern European countries?

'the Treasury unit in charge of enforcing the UK’s sanctions quietly issued a 30-day licence granting permission for any individual or entity to “wind down any transactions” with VTB until 27 March.."

Wholly to be expected with the current Government. No doubt money will still flow into Tory coffers by back door channels.

@DrBlackbird

Finally caught up with old and new after being at work today.

When Putin first invaded Ukraine, I thought it would be over in 24 hours. Also that after initial shock and outrage, that the world would accept it as the new normal.

Now… I have no idea what to think. It doesn’t seem possible for Ukraine to win a war against Russia. Or even to hold off long enough for wider economic sanctions to convince those around Putin that this is not the best course to keep following.

It is really useful to have this thread as a central point of informative postings.

I also thought it would be over very quickly, but Zelensky (along with Eastern and Central European countries) have actually been very effective at mustering support and encouraging increasing sanctions.

I do not for one minute think Ukraine will be suddenly inculcated into the EU, but a lot of senior officials have now made noises about how of course Ukraine should be within the EU, etc. Said in a moment of passion but hard to go back on once the passion has died down. Ukraine in the EU would seriously benefit the other Eastern and Central countries who feel Germany benefits disproportionately from the current arrangement.

Impossible to know if Ukraine can hold out much longer, as there is (understandably) so much disinformation on both sides. The fact that the convoy has not been attacked suggests that perhaps Ukrainian forces are not in a position to attack (do not have the numbers or the logistics).

@motherofpugz you need to start your own thread, you’ve posted on an existing thread on a VERY different topic.

Go to whichever board (Chat/Relationships/AIBU) and click Start New Thread at the top of the page.

@DrBlackbird

Ukraine asked to join NATO in 2018. They were told ‘no’. And it doesn’t seem to me that what we’re seeing can be characterised as a ‘flashpoint’.

There have been intense diplomatic efforts with Putin for at least weeks. Maybe I’ve missed it, but I’ve not heard Putin announce that he’s made x and y demands which haven’t been met.

Except today the Russian foreign minister Lavrov demanded the removal of US nuclear weapons fromEurope. After Putin has threatened all European/Eastern European countries?

That seems such a pointless request, it doesn’t make sense. Why on earth would Europe give up their nuclear weapons? To coin a MN phrase - are they on glue?!

@vera99

Look like oligarch payoffs of the Tories was good insurance. When the UK announced asset freezes what actually happened is that they are giving them 30 days (!) to move their money out leisurely.

inews.co.uk/news/government-accused-of-absurd-sanctions-loophole-after-giving-russian-bank-customers-30-days-to-wind-down-assets-1490017

'the Treasury unit in charge of enforcing the UK’s sanctions quietly issued a 30-day licence granting permission for any individual or entity to “wind down any transactions” with VTB until 27 March.."

"This is a ridiculous position for Britain to put itself in. An asset freeze needs to be immediate and total. If you are leaving those subject to it a month for the sanction to become active then anything you want to freeze will be long gone. It is absurd.”

It looks like Putin commands more loyalty from the UK government than from his own side. At Boris isn't deserting him. Unlike the conscripts.

re. Moldova, there have been various images posted on Twitter of Lucashenko's security meeting today (where he said Ukraine had missiles aimed at Belarus). He showed a map which looks like an invasion map:
twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1498673348183744518
and various people have noted that it includes encroachment on Moldova from Transnistria.

Obviously, it is deeply weird that they'd film and make available an accurate map of their exact plans, but stranger things have happened recently, and as part of the information battle, it is kind of interesting. As are the expressions on everyone's faces.
(Also, are that moustache, pointer and map not spookily reminiscent of Chaplin in The Great Dictator?).

[quote CaveMum]I’m reposting this which I shared on the last thread. It was written by a MNer on another thread who said they are a Russian political analyst (obv can’t verify these things but I’ll take it at face value):

Despite the very vague threatening statements made by the Russians over the last few days, the US government was reporting a few hours ago that no change to Russian nuclear force posture had been detected. There's no evidence - so far - that this was more than a desperate attempt to retrieve some credibility in the face of Russia's weakness in Ukraine and inability to stop Western states coordinating diplomatic and economic responses.

Even if Putin is mentally unstable - and there's no consensus on that - the people around him, including the senior military leadership, aren't.

The thing to remember is that there is no such thing as a big red button that Putin can hit to fire of the nukes. There will be procedures to follow and a chain of command. Now no one is saying that is 100% fail safe but, in general, people aren’t stupid and you’d be fairly confident that someone sling the chain would stop it from actually happening.

Look up the case of Stanislav Petrov who saved the world from nuclear annihilation in 1983.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov[/quote]
Tbh I keep wondering if what Putin is doing with this amounts to acting out Richard Nixon's Madman Theory of nuclear deterrence. In essence, nuclear deterrence doesn't really work with rational actors because mutually assured destruction means neither side can actually use their nukes. Consequently, the only way to get strategic benefit from your nuclear arsenal is if you can make the other side think you just might ne unhinged enough to use them anyway. Pretty sure the Soviet military still remembers some of the games played at the time.
en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

[quote vera99]@WeQuestionEverything if you go down that route and Putin's power holds then be very, very afraid. Because WW3 will truly have begun and where these things end with the evil weapons we now have god only knows we will be entering Dr Strangelove's territory. Thankfully the unofficial red lines of engagement are understood. Johnson was clear when he was ambushed by that brave Ukrainian journalist today and for that I am grateful.[/quote]
So you believe he would nuke us when you say -

if you go down that route and Putin's power holds

You think he would turn to nuclear weapons and destroy Russia if we took out 200 vehicles?

@Lonelycrab I’m guessing we will have to get it to Poland and they can get it in to Ukraine I’m no expert but I think if anyone is seen flying aid to Ukraine they’d be shot down or attacked but as I said I may be wrong I’m just guessing

@Yeahthat Some good points you make there & of course pre conflict they shouldn't have been allowed but Western leaders wouldn't countenance that....

Are nato allowing Ukrainian jets to use their air bases in Poland etc i ve missed that if so?

Sanctions take too long, thye 'll have control of the bits they want by then.

It is the wests weakness that has enabled Putin, he isn't mad at all, he'd be long gone if he was but he has seen how we behave and has decided he wants back bits of land he considers Russian.

Take note the Americans didn't come to UN meeting.

Here are examples of the 'wests weakness, the UN have launched an appeal for 100s of $ millions but instead of taking this from the Russian Oligarchs, they want it from us lot!!!

This might also seem a small thing but i found a multi national Russian based (no jokes pls) pizza company, with outlets in several UK towns, happily trading away... doubtless legally but it shows how pathetic we are.

Churchill hadn't spent the thirties enriching and sucking up to Nazis, unlike the Daily Mail and Lord Rothemere. The Tories know they are up to their necks in this and that brave journalist pointed the finger with justified and righteous anger. Forget party gate this goes much deeper and more corrosive and London is the epicentre of the Putin enablers and funders. Seize fucking Chelski ffs £1.5 bn there - privatise it and sell it to the fans for starters.

@DrBlackbird

Ukraine asked to join NATO in 2018. They were told ‘no’. And it doesn’t seem to me that what we’re seeing can be characterised as a ‘flashpoint’.

There have been intense diplomatic efforts with Putin for at least weeks. Maybe I’ve missed it, but I’ve not heard Putin announce that he’s made x and y demands which haven’t been met.

Except today the Russian foreign minister Lavrov demanded the removal of US nuclear weapons fromEurope. After Putin has threatened all European/Eastern European countries?

"Flash point" - as in, the place where a conflict could start. This was warned of going back to the 90s by George Kennan, John Mearsheimer and others. Their predictions were born out.

Ukraine may have previously been refused, but the question wasn't off the table. Members of their government then stated that they'd consider developing nuclear weapons if this wasn't permitted. NATO refused to rule this out.

The comparison has been made on here to the Cuban missile crisis.

Thinking in terms of realpolitik, Russia is in economic decline, their population isn't growing - perhaps they acted now rather than face what they characterise as an unacceptable and existential threat in the future against a wealthier and better armed Ukraine.

These measures:
Ruling out Ukraine joining NATO; accepting them into the EU but ruling out any involvement in a future EU military, guaranteeing neutrality and ruling out ever developing nuclear weapons, may have been able to avert war, the point is that we now know that intransigence and refusal to negotiate on NATO's open door policy and possible future incorporation of Ukraine didn't work, and that's turned out to be a tragedy for Ukraine.

If we had attempted diplomacy based on these terms, and it failed, we'd just be in the same position that we are now. But there may have been a chance to avert it.

@AuldAlliance that guy standing up looks pretty unhappy

@Peregrina

'the Treasury unit in charge of enforcing the UK’s sanctions quietly issued a 30-day licence granting permission for any individual or entity to “wind down any transactions” with VTB until 27 March.."

Wholly to be expected with the current Government. No doubt money will still flow into Tory coffers by back door channels.

Its this pathetic weakness from our Govt that has enabled Putin & why we are here and the only people being sanctioned are the Ukrainians.

I was reading today again about the Arab-Israeli conflict of 1973. (The 'Yom Kippur War'.) Something had jogged my memory and it was about the airforce(s) and Surface-to-Air Missiles, and how the Egyptian placement of its SAMs affected the course of the first week of the conflict by initially hampering the Israeli airforce's capabilities to fly over the western Sinai and Suez and give cover to its land army.

(It still went in Israel's favour in the end, after another three weeks.)

So where are the Russian and Ukrainian Surface-to-Air missiles located?

@WeQuestionEverything Russia has a policy of using (smaller) tactical nukes without first strike requirements. If they think they are losing then a nuke on Kyiv could be the counterstrike and then what? Is that a gamble you would be prepared to make?

If we had attempted diplomacy based on these terms, and it failed, we'd just be in the same position that we are now. But there may have been a chance to avert it

Absolutely, two pronged plan, negotiating whilst preparing for conflict.

From BBC, apologies if this has already been posted:

Some clarity on that massive Russian armoured column heading south towards Kyiv.

Close analysis of the latest satellite images by McKenzie Intelligence Services reveals the following:

The convoy is not 40 miles long, it’s a series of logistical ‘packets’ strung out along a major highway from the Belarus border, aiming to link up with Russian units on the northern outskirts of Kyiv.

The convoy appears to be hampered in several places by broken down vehicles.

The column consists of some armour (tanks) and infantry fighting vehicles but mainly logistical vehicles, implying plans for more than just a brief battle.

Separately, the imagery examined by McKenzie Intelligence Services shows a Russian parachute battalion dug in to the area of Hostomel airfield - Ukraine's most important international cargo airport and a key military airbase near Kyiv.

But their artillery is assessed to be outside the range of most of the capital.

The analysts say they have noted very little Russian progress over the past 24 hours.