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Original poster

The Invasion is ongoing...Part 5

999 replies

Damnloginpopup · 01/03/2022 15:57

Unbelievable to think that a few days ago the world was starting to look more positive..ye we find ourselves on a fifth thread discussing the horrors of the war in Europe. An unbelievable change has happened to the world we live in.

Some incredible firmed posts have been written, informing, discussing, and occasionally derailing. Let's hope the news is more positive by the end of this one.

OP posts:
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14
Cocoaone · 02/03/2022 14:58

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

The Americans are going to have to get further involved.

What good will come out of this?

It seems impossible.

If we don't get involved, millions of Ukrainians die.
If we do get involved, we unleash WW3 and millions more across the globe die.

It's like the classic moral Trolley Problem - do you accept 1 (million) die to prevent 10 (million) dying?
But if we don't get involved, what's to stop Putin doing the same to other non-NATO countries?

I honestly can't see any acceptable ending. Which I'm sure is why it keeps most of us from sleeping soundly at the moment.

Alexandra2001 · 02/03/2022 14:58

@Muminabun Has it changed North Korea?

We will very soon resume trade with Russia, they have too much that we need, we traded extensively through out the last Cold War.

MarshaBradyo · 02/03/2022 14:58

@Alexandra2001

Do you think we are then looking at Ukraine being brutally swallowed by Russia and then a division of Russia China and other countries like Pakistan, North Korea and others on one side and the west nato etc on the other. Will Ukraine lead to a new world order as some sort of new Cold War. That sounds awful and what will it mean for us all. What will the outcome of all of this be and how will that look for all of us?

Perhaps, though i do not feel China will take sides, they need eco growth to keep their vast country together.

I think Ukraine will be partitioned, and a new cold war, the millions killed and us standing by will be justified by "well better than WW3"

The problem with this is that the Russians will know that they can come back for more of the old USSR safe in the knowledge we will shy away from conflict.

How likely do you think nuclear weapons would be if NATO got involved?
Grantanow · 02/03/2022 15:04

We are some distance in time from the ultimate decision. In the 1930s we did not intervene in the Rhineland, Austria or Czechoslovakia but we did with regard to Poland because Poland was a treaty obligation. The difference between Hitler and Putin is simply that Putin has nuclear weapons which changes the price of intervening if there is escalation.

WeAreTheHeroes · 02/03/2022 15:05

It's all so depressing as well as horrific. I echo what @SeedsSeedsSeedshas said about donating to charity.

DGRossetti · 02/03/2022 15:08

The Vietcong saw the US off with sticks and stones.

Alexandra2001 · 02/03/2022 15:09

How likely do you think nuclear weapons would be if NATO got involved?

I think if the Americans started building large numbers of troops/planes etc in eastern Europe, in preparation of action, then i think this would drive the Russians to the negotiating table but so long as there is zero threat of action, then Putin will do as he likes.

The argument yu put forward for no action i.e nuclear war, is exactly the same if Putin invaded Latvia e.g. Let Latvia go because that will save the world.

DGRossetti · 02/03/2022 15:10

we did with regard to Poland because Poland was a treaty obligation.

And gave Germany a naval advantage in the Baltic.

GnomeDePlume · 02/03/2022 15:12

@RedToothBrush thank you for that excellent piece on the Finland Winter War. As you say, the comparison with the situation today is significant.

spleencoffin · 02/03/2022 15:18

We've got to live out lives without constant anxiety and worry about this

Hard I know but it's too much

jgw1 · 02/03/2022 15:19

@ChardonnaysPetDragon

The decision to get more involved or stand back and watch genocide is getting ever closer. Once the Russians take Ukraine, do you think they wont extract revenge on the defenders? as they did to the Germans they "liberated" in WW2.

They can't hold it. They might have been able to hold the separatist' republics, but this?

Still, once NATO gets involved all bets are off.

This is what's baffling, Putin ether totally miscalculated the sympathies they hoped to get once there, or he has something else in mind. Then again, he couldn't possible have hoped to find support in Kiev.

When your advisors just tell you what you want to hear, it is I think plausible that he thought he would be welcomed as a liberator.

Anyone who actually knew any Ukrainians would know what an intensely proud people they are.

GallopingHighRoad · 02/03/2022 15:22

@RedToothBrush
I used to think Russia is heading to be one of those "poles" of a multipolar world, a great power. Now I think that Russia has already lost "Cold War II", and that long-term it's heading towards either integrating with Europe, or becoming a Chinese vassal

This is exactly my view. The Kremlin is in a 'dead cat bounce' situation. A future generation of Russian's will live in a democratic European country because that is where they want to belong.

MissConductUS · 02/03/2022 15:26

@DGRossetti

The Vietcong saw the US off with sticks and stones.
They were actually well supplied by the Russians and Chinese with everything from small arms, surface to air missiles and tanks.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weapons_of_the_Vietnam_War

KonTikki · 02/03/2022 15:28

Red Tooth Brush, insightful and informative as always.
The only thing I would add is Air Superiority.
Boots on the ground is everything, and the only way to control a theatre of operations.
But having Air Superiority can be a massive advantage in retaining those boots on the ground.
Equally important is keeping the home crowd on your side. That will hopefully become increasingly difficult for Putin as the cost of his actions grow.

Probably the best parallel for that is the Vietnam war.

Ijsbear · 02/03/2022 15:28

I wonder what's going on in the world of cyber-attacks and hacking right now. Given how effective at causing chaos attacks can be, I wonder if Russian media and the military are massively under attack and what's actually being achieved?

Wrongkindofovercoat · 02/03/2022 15:32

Does anyone know where the Russian people think the Russian army are ? Do they know they are bombing/invading all of Ukraine or do they think they are just in the East ?

Alexandra2001 · 02/03/2022 15:33

@Wrongkindofovercoat Peace keeping mission as the neo nazi leadership of ukraine were killing ethnic Russians.

shreddednips · 02/03/2022 15:39

I've been watching this thread with great interest and I really appreciate the knowledgable contributions. What I'm not sure I quite understand is this- presumably, even without access to unbiased media, this conflict has changed the landscape in Russia significantly regarding attitudes to its leadership. I imagine large swathes of the population want to live in a Russia that is democratic and has generally good relations with Europe. Even people who broadly agree with Putin's ideology might feel that the long-term sanctions are too high a price to pay for realising his aims.

If that's the case, how far off might we be from seeing a less aggressive regime in Russia, and has this conflict potentially brought that possibility closer than it otherwise would have been? If the answer is relatively close, is there really no diplomatic route left available that could placate Putin and end the fighting in the hopes that that point comes sooner rather than later?

Sorry if this is a stupid or naive question.

coffeeandbiscuittime · 02/03/2022 15:42

A Russian friend in the UK says her sons have been protesting in Russia and her family are anti Putin in Russia. She is very scared and upset for them all - her Dad was Ukrainian.

GallopingHighRoad · 02/03/2022 15:43

@shreddednips

When a sufficient proportion of the 70% who support Putin have overcome their fears.

MarshaBradyo · 02/03/2022 15:47

@Alexandra2001

How likely do you think nuclear weapons would be if NATO got involved?

I think if the Americans started building large numbers of troops/planes etc in eastern Europe, in preparation of action, then i think this would drive the Russians to the negotiating table but so long as there is zero threat of action, then Putin will do as he likes.

The argument yu put forward for no action i.e nuclear war, is exactly the same if Putin invaded Latvia e.g. Let Latvia go because that will save the world.

Did you mean intervene in Ukraine?

I did think in pp this is what you meant

Steamedhams · 02/03/2022 15:59

Thank you @RedToothBrush I have definitely learned a lot from your post Grin

My husband heard somewhere that Russia would have to take over Ukraine in less than 10 days or they haemorrhage money and the war would cost too much.

shreddednips · 02/03/2022 16:01

[quote GallopingHighRoad]@shreddednips

When a sufficient proportion of the 70% who support Putin have overcome their fears.[/quote]
Ah ok yes I thought I was being naive 😬

Alwayscheerful · 02/03/2022 16:01

@RedToothBrush
Incredibly Informative, thank you.

Cam77 · 02/03/2022 16:11

@ClingClingDin
Russia claims it is not targeting civilians in Mariupol. For this family and many more, that is hard to believe.

Russia has nothing to gain by targeting civilians. Invading Ukraine is already a war crime. No point in making stuff up.