The Invasion is ongoing...Part 5

[Damnloginpopup]

Unbelievable to think that a few days ago the world was starting to look more positive..ye we find ourselves on a fifth thread discussing the horrors of the war in Europe. An unbelievable change has happened to the world we live in.

Some incredible firmed posts have been written, informing, discussing, and occasionally derailing. Let's hope the news is more positive by the end of this one.

A democratic country wouldn't see NATO as a threat.it exists to supposedly protect each others from these mad bastard's

Exactly. ^^

If Putin feels threatened, that’s his paranoia. It doesn’t reflect reality. Those Eastern European countries asked to join NATO because they’re were scared of the Russian bear. Turns out for good reason.

@letmesleep123 I'm sorry my words upset you and I would never tell you to shut up.

I call it an occupation, I understand you see it as Russia defending your homeland.

We are probably not going to agree on this, but at least I hope we agree that this war is terrible and will hopefully be over soon.

@DrBlackbird

My assumption is that the primary goal of Russia is to ensure its own survival, just like every other state.

You may not perceive NATO as hostile - of course you wouldn't, you're from a western ally - but the countries that lead it have waged numerous wars of aggression in recent decades. We have done so for the express purpose of regime change, sometimes under what were later revealed to be false pretexts. Some of the countries and regimes involved were even at one time considered losely allied. Millions of refugees have been created in the process.

No one is saying that NATO was on the cusp of invading Russia, but if you interpret things in that light, it becomes understandable that Putin views strategic competition with NATO as a core interest, and its expansion to Ukraine as an existential threat.

Who has NATO supposedly started wars against?
Democratic countries??

Yeah that.

Russia or Putin And his thugs?

Did anyone see sky news tonight?
Someone said forget all the smoozh.

It's the godfather pure And simple.

He's a gangsters thug who ended up with a whole country to use And plunder and the big baby doesn't want NATO next to him incase it emboldens his repressed people to rise up!!

Boo hoo

• I wish people would stop saying Russia... When they mean one thug, Putin

to negotiate successfully you need to fully understand the other side's position and find a reasonable solution to meet both sides' fundamental issues.

And you're calling me simplistic!

People think there is always a diplomatic solution to everything, that there is always some compromise to be worked out. This isn't true. When the conflict is zero-sum, when there is no way to split a territory or interest, then it's usually impossible to find a diplomatic solution.

I mean why do you think the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is still going on? Why is Cyprus still divided in half? Do people realise the Syrian war is still going on despite years of negotiations.

There won't be a diplomatic solution in Ukraine until one side or the other feels like they have no choice, and I'm not sure that will happen anytime soon.

[quote Wrongkindofovercoat]**@letmesleep123* It was Eastern Ukraine not agreeing with the coup and holding a referendum, where the vast majority voted to leave Ukraine and become independent (NOT part of Russia)*

Did Eastern Ukraine have any idea of how it was going to achieve this independence from both Western Ukraine and Russia ? Who told them this would be possible ?[/quote]
Before the war in 2014, Donbas, which is the East of Ukraine, had a strong economy, bringing in about 18% of Ukraine's GDP. It had been pushing for autonomy within Ukraine for years, which became less apparent when Yanukovich came to power as he was from Donbas. Needless to say, the coup overthrowing him caused an outrage.

You are probably right, full independence might not have been realistic, but an autonomy within Ukraine should have been. Bringing in the military was not an answer that was ever going to bring any results.

I'm not convinced NATO is the real reason for the invasion either. I take the point about NATO countries starting conflict in countries for the purposes of regime change but distance was no barrier to our interventions. Turkey has a border with Iraq and Syria but there are no NATO countries bordering Afghanistan or Libya.

In Europe once you go beyond Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova you have Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania who are all NATO members as are Greece and Turkey. Finland is not a member but I believe it was being debated today and Norway is already a member. Poland are no fans of Putin so if we wanted to launch an attack on Russia it could easily be done from there or from Turkey but we haven't because it's not something NATO have ever intended to do.

I've re-read Putin's speech this evening and in addition to being full of lies there is heavy emphasis on the strength of the old USSR. I really think he has ambitions to reform it.

Finding it hard to tell my 5 year old that we aren’t going to be obliterated by Putin and his Merry men. Struggling to deal with the fact that his little ears are hearing his little friends discussing the topic and possible outcomes.

@Tigersonvaseline

Understand that when people point this out we're attempting to describe the state of how things are, not how we'd like them to be. I'm not sure if you're capable of separating those two concepts.

If you want to leave the debate at "Putin's the bad guy, we're the good guy and even with our military alliances on your doorstep you have nothing to worry about", then that's fine. It's done nothing to help Ukraine though.

I don't believe that: "You're just like the Godfather, boo hoo!" (?) would have advanced matters either?

This was warned about in the 90s by US diplomats and individuals in the foreign policy establishment going back to the Clinton administration. They've been vindicated by subsequent events.

Your point about "democratic countries" is moot - you're essentially saying that it's justified for them to go to war with non-democratic countries / countries whose govts we don't approve of. In that case, the security dilemma of non-democratic countries is obvious.

Smart diplomacy could have possibly balanced the various interests in the region and avoided war. What we do know is that the approach taken failed, and we are not nor ever were going to go to war to defend Ukraine.

US hegemony is over and we're going back to a multipolar world where distribution of power and core interests matter and have to be balanced.

I am against sanctions and think that expert and informed negotiation is vital with encouragement for UN peace keeping corps to be accepted by both sides while negotiation goes on.

I don’t understand why your against the sanctions?

What do you think the world should do to punish his illegal answers, this madman knew what sanctions were going to be imposed when he went to war with Ukraine.

What are the alternatives you believe should be sanctioned? Because this monster had months and months of negotiations with world leaders around the world and with President Zelensky who tried everything within his core to stop this evil personal aggression against country.

This monster choose this path of war crimes, even backtracking and going against his very own promises.

He condemned his own people to these sanctions and other counties for his own personal gain because none of this is in anyone’s gain… but that’s OK as he has billions sitting in his bank accounts while sitting in his bunker while he sends his own people barely adults into combat war with basic combat training.

The world leaders just couldn’t sit back and do nothing without helping or sanctioning.

He was always planning to go to war with Ukraine and nothing was going to stop him from doing so.

If Ukraine just gave in and became neutral then where does it end? Russia has made themselves look pitiful when it comes to their military capabilities however they are still a superpower with the biggest nuclear arsenal in the world and that’s terrifying.

I pray for Ukraine tonight.

@Speciali Are you old enough to remember the Bosnian war? If so you could tell him about that, how Bosnia is about as far away from us as Russia is and it didn't affect us at all? Stretching the truth a bit of course because there's no comparison but hopefully at 5 he won't question you deeply. Show him on a map or globe how far away Russia is from us.

Some of us are well aware of what was going on in Eastern Ukraine and the civil war which was ongoing, and the fact the Minsk agreement was never followed.

But, it was a civil war, fought in your own border.

There is a reason other countries don't get embroiled in "in house civil wars" because it leads to absolute carnage quite frankly.

It's the reason the world has to a certain degree allowed Israel and Palestine to bomb the shit out of eachother for years, but other than some arms trades and foreign aid haven't waded in to it, because no good will come of some super power sniffing about in there.

Russia pushed the limit in 2014 when it waded in to the east and Crimea, but it's completely overstepped the mark by a million miles by invading the entire country!!

[quote dreamingbohemian]@letmesleep123 I'm sorry my words upset you and I would never tell you to shut up.

I call it an occupation, I understand you see it as Russia defending your homeland.

We are probably not going to agree on this, but at least I hope we agree that this war is terrible and will hopefully be over soon.[/quote]
We certainly agree that war is never an answer, be it for internal or external conflicts.

If only all countries found a common enemy like cancer or covid or whatever else and put all their powers and money into fighting that. The world would be a much happier place :-)

Illegal wars / not answers

@dreamingbohemian

to negotiate successfully you need to fully understand the other side's position and find a reasonable solution to meet both sides' fundamental issues.

And you're calling me simplistic!

People think there is always a diplomatic solution to everything, that there is always some compromise to be worked out. This isn't true. When the conflict is zero-sum, when there is no way to split a territory or interest, then it's usually impossible to find a diplomatic solution.

I mean why do you think the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is still going on? Why is Cyprus still divided in half? Do people realise the Syrian war is still going on despite years of negotiations.

There won't be a diplomatic solution in Ukraine until one side or the other feels like they have no choice, and I'm not sure that will happen anytime soon.

Yes I agree diplomacy does not always work. I am seeing a lot of naivety in the discussions about Ukraine invasion. Sometimes the only option is to physically defend yourself.

We have done so for the express purpose of regime change, sometimes under what were later revealed to be false pretexts

I wouldn’t disagree with this. However, likewise Putin has waged numerous wars of aggression in recent decades that has created millions of refugees. Moreover, the US would never wage a war on Russia. Ever. Why would it?! For what possible gain? It’s a real life deterrence theory based on nuclear consequences.

Granted that when Trump was President I was worried that he was stupid enough and narcissistic / sociopathic enough to possibly push the red button. But it wouldn’t have been against Russia.

We get it @Yeahthat you've taken IR Theory 101 and swallowed neo-realist theory hook, line and sinker.

Realists are not 'just describing the world the way it is'. They're describing the way the world looks to them. Realism is not some analytically neutral approach to the world, it is a set of assumptions and theories based in a particular worldview and agenda.

The people who disagree with you aren't too dim to understand what you're saying. They just disagree with you.

@Damnloginpopup

Caught up now. Two things -

1 has there been any Israeli response to the Babyn Yar park being hit (though not targeted presumably) and are they actually siding with Russia as I've heard from a contact (surprised me)

2 Pakistan reported as signing a huge trade deal for wheat and gas with Russia. (I believe we give Pakistan a lot of financial aid don't we?

In relation to your first point:

a) They have condemned the damage done to Babyn Yar - see www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-jewish-officials-denounce-russian-strike-that-hit-babi-yar-memorial-complex/

b) Israel reputedly tried to mediate (or was asked by Ukraine to try to mediate) between the two sides - there are a number of articles on the Times of Israel website - see eg www.timesofisrael.com/zelensky-pleased-by-bennetts-mediation-offer-in-call-with-putin-says-ukraine-envoy/
Israel has historically had good relations with both Russia and Ukraine (as well as with the US)- so the government seems to be trying to walk a bit of a tightrope. However it would seem that public opinion is very much on the Ukrainian side - see eg www.timesofisrael.com/for-many-jews-volodymyr-zelensky-is-a-modern-maccabee-as-he-fights-ukraines-war/
There are of course a lot of both Ukranian and Russian speakers in Israel.

Absolutely @letmesleep123 : )
I do think one day the world will be a more peaceful place.
I'm really sorry for what everyone in your homeland is going through.

#RussianUkrainianWar Never forget tЯ☭mp met with Vladimir Putin, behind closed doors, on July 16, 2018, for 2 hours against the advice of FBI and Intelligence.

TЯ☭mp hid Putin's calls, met with him in private,
confiscated the translator's notes after meeting with him.

This has some interesting intel about morale among Russian forces.

nypost.com/2022/03/01/desperate-russian-soldiers-fleeing-from-ukraine-us-official/

There should be no paywall.

@DrBlackbird

We wouldn't, because we can't. So they'll keep it that way. If we were able to overthrow Putin's or his succesor's regime in ten years, could anyone rule out that we'd try. For now the consequences of trying, as we've attempted or managed to do elsewhere, would be catastrophic.

We never were going to defend Ukraine militarily. My concern is if war could have been prevented. Ultimately, I believe that we need to move towards normalising relations with Russia and mutual disarmament, a process which will take decades. I don't think we'll get there with unilateral demands, and the false carrot of NATO membership for Ukraine has been disastrous. Russia may have invaded anyway in this hypothetical alternate timeline in which Ukraine is realistic about the security concerns of a powerful neighbour, we don't know.

@Speciali

Finding it hard to tell my 5 year old that we aren’t going to be obliterated by Putin and his Merry men. Struggling to deal with the fact that his little ears are hearing his little friends discussing the topic and possible outcomes.

This is hard. Kids see things, hear things, Watch the news, take things in, even if they have no political understanding, they will pick up tension and fear around them, much as pets do.

Not sure what the answer is, maybe try to reassure him that he will be looked after by you, no matter what.