[quote continu]@RedToothBrush
If it wasn't the stuff about NATO it would be something else. Because thats the mindset of dictators. Especially ones with domestic issues they are trying to paper over the cracks of
He would still be having this crisis of mortality and wanting to secure his legacy
Its ingrained into the personality of the man
As much as its tempting to cling to the idea that its about NATO, I'm afraid I just don't buy it. He'd just create another narrative
And we'd have more countries perhaps exposed and even more potential problems and not really knowing what to do.
how do you check your own thinking here? Putin has made many, many in depth speeches over the years, answered journalist questions, verified and translated by the likes of Sky News, all pretty consistent, Russia has made many announcements, there have been meetings between Putin and Zelensky which can be watched on youtube (have you watched all these?) , there have been many commentators explaing the history of the tensions, all of it points to the issues being in relation to Donbass, Crimea, encroachment of NATO, etc etc
But you say you don't buy all this, the real reasons are as you see it or how you intuit it maybe? Where do your strong views come from?[/quote]
Psychology. A lot term plan to undermine and destroy democracy from within. And the idea of the Military–industrial complex but applied to Putin's Russia rather than America
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military%E2%80%93industrial_complex
To use a few quotes from the article which explain it:
There has been a concept of an class of military, business, and political leaders, driven by mutual interests, were the real leaders of the state, and were effectively beyond democratic control.
Sound familiar?
Another element which after this war is likely to strengthen the tendencies in this direction will be some of the men who during the war have tasted the powers of coercive control and will find it difficult to reconcile themselves with the humbler roles they will then have to play [in peaceful times].
Sound familiar?
"Were the Soviet Union to sink tomorrow under the waters of the ocean, the American military–industrial complex would have to remain, substantially unchanged, until some other adversary could be invented. Anything else would be an unacceptable shock to the American economy."
Sound familiar?
Its the whole idea of if things are going badly at home, just start a bloody good war to sort it all out. No reason why it would be a philosophy restricted to the US. It works for any power that has the ability to throw its weight around and not be easily challenged militarily directly. It causes a shock which throws the balance of power. Which is why Putin might seek to take such a risk.
The irony in it is that in recent years, Oligarchs have been some of the big beneficiaries of Disaster Capitalism. And not just Russian ones. Not got a crisis? Create one. Trump was certainly big on the idea. I think British politics has its far few representives (not just blue coloured I might add).
In this sense I wouldn't be surprised if Putin, can turn this around still and use it as a wedge to drive and almost isolate the West in the long run. The whole 'western hypocrisy' thing is a massive issue to exploit in the rest of the world and to exploit within the West itself. (The West needs to get a grip on this because its fuelling a growing mistrust in politicians and the media - which in turn makes people look for alternatives. If institutions that are supposed to stand for justice and representation don't work, why not get rid and just have your own dictator). Pakistan making a business decision to trade with Russia is an example of this wedge on the international scale.
So yeah, if it wasn't NATO it would be something else. And Soviet / Russian Identity almost relies on having to have an enemy to rail against, to drive the need for the leader to have complete control 'as a strong man'. Why do you need a strong man leader if you are safe? And if you have a leader, he must be a 'strong man' otherwise he's not doing his job and you might not be safe. If you don't have an outside enemy then you might also start looking inwards about whether your leader is actually your enemy instead.
(Sorry, rambling a bit, but I hope that makes sense. Not easy to explain and I admit I'm struggling to verbalise it well too).