The Invasion is ongoing...Part 5

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Unbelievable to think that a few days ago the world was starting to look more positive..ye we find ourselves on a fifth thread discussing the horrors of the war in Europe. An unbelievable change has happened to the world we live in.

Some incredible firmed posts have been written, informing, discussing, and occasionally derailing. Let's hope the news is more positive by the end of this one.

[quote Wrongkindofovercoat]@reallynowreally perhaps try posting again rather than freaking out ? What's the old saying ? Never attribute to malice and all that ...[/quote]
Not so much freaking out...I just can't get my head around the whole thing

Doesn't want nato and Eu involved....right ok,
Military bases anywhere on borders of Russia....right ok
History of Soviet Union...right ok

I personally am not anywhere near an expert on all of this, can we not all just live in peace and quite...does it really matter?! Not to putin and a lot of Russians they have a different view obviously.

But I do think we all have to realise (as a few posters have mentioned) there are lots of other countries that have been destroyed through war that we havnt got this upset about.
Is it the nukes? No I dont think so as we, and alot of countries have always had nukes and I dont think he will do it either but is there a further thing going on here?
China and tiewan?
And I no I am going to get absolutely slaughtered for this you lovely people but I'm sure you may have heard about the one world currency...does anyone fear that may be what this is leading to with all these sanctions?
I desperately hope not and I do apologise if I come off a bit crazy and conspiracy but I really am not I am just questioning everything right now 😕

@katem98

Thanks, *@RecklessRemote* . Agreed, great perspective.

Putin has nothing new here. He is poised to take Ukraine anyway. The rest all falls away.....

How do you stop him. Now? Today?

[quote Yeahthat]@WeQuestionEverything

It's not about what I want. It's about being realistic about our own capabilities, what's actually achievable, and what our core interests are.

We should have learned in Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya etc that it's not possible to simply remake the world as we like it. We're not omnipotent. We're going to have to get used to that as the unipolar world under US hegemony becomes a bipolar one as China rises.

I personally believe that those who counselled against the expansion of NATO and pointed to Ukraine as a future flashpoint between Russia and the west, as far back as the 90s, have been vindicated.

My belief, as I've stated previously, is that intransigence has done nothing except create a tragedy in Ukraine.

The solution that I envision is negotiations predicated on Ukraine being offered and accepting:

Incorporation into the EU, but ruled out of any involvement in a hypothetical future EU military; accepting neutrality; ruling out (constitutionally, if need be) future incorporation into NATO and the development of nuclear weapons.

Ukraine is free to focus on becoming prosperous through economic integration into the EU.

Putin can claim that he has demilitarised Ukraine and checked NATO expansion.

Furthermore, seeking to normalise relations with Russia (which could take decades) and mutually moving towards disarmament both in conventional and nuclear weapons.[/quote]
See I don't know we'd be in a better situation.

Putin could still had ambitions of reviving Soviet Power and reclaiming the likes of Lithuania regardless.

Part of the mentality of this, isn't merely about NATO, its about loss of influence and wanting to the height of Soviet power.

He's a Megolomanic. I think its extremely naive to say its about NATO's expansion rather than fall of the Berlin Wall. He likes to push boundaries and take opportunities. If he sees a chance he will grab it even if its risky.

If it wasn't the stuff about NATO it would be something else. Because thats the mindset of dictators. Especially ones with domestic issues they are trying to paper over the cracks of.

He would still be having this crisis of mortality and wanting to secure his legacy.

Its ingrained into the personality of the man.

As much as its tempting to cling to the idea that its about NATO, I'm afraid I just don't buy it. He'd just create another narrative.

And we'd have more countries perhaps exposed and even more potential problems and not really knowing what to do.

I'm sorry, but I just can't buy into a 'grass is always greener' alternate university theory.

Experts fear the convoy, which includes supply and armored attack vehicles, could be used to encircle and cut off the capital or to launch a full-on assault. The front end of the convoy is just 20 miles from the capital.

This is what I've been thinking. I've been wondering why the convoy has been sitting out in the open all day but making little progress. I think it's waiting for some other part of the plan to slot into place before it gets on with doing what it's there for. I also wondered if it was an intimidation tactic and have been thinking that the last five days have been Putin giving Ukrainians time to "see sense" and surrender. My instinct is that in the next 24 hours the capital is going to face a vicious and unrelenting assault.

@Viviennemary

I heard a couple of days ago Ukraine was going to be supplied with anti aircraft weapons. Now that would mean they would d be shoooting down the Russisn attackers to defend their country. But that would escalate things hugely. Difficult to say how this will end. Even if Russia puts in a puppet government and deposes the Ukrainian President will that be recognised by anybody.,

Lithuanian announced they would be supplying Stinger Surface to Air Missiles several weeks back and there’s already been credible footage of Russian helicopters being shot down by Ukrainian Forces using Stingers or similar.

As for more supplies of Stingers being an escalation, no more so than the Javelin or NLAWs anti-tank missiles which the likes of the US, UK have provided and continue to provide which we know have knocked out a lot of Russian armour.

Place marking

@FOJN

Experts fear the convoy, which includes supply and armored attack vehicles, could be used to encircle and cut off the capital or to launch a full-on assault. The front end of the convoy is just 20 miles from the capital.

This is what I've been thinking. I've been wondering why the convoy has been sitting out in the open all day but making little progress. I think it's waiting for some other part of the plan to slot into place before it gets on with doing what it's there for. I also wondered if it was an intimidation tactic and have been thinking that the last five days have been Putin giving Ukrainians time to "see sense" and surrender. My instinct is that in the next 24 hours the capital is going to face a vicious and unrelenting assault.

Starting to look like it got stuck because of poor command and control, plus a lack of fuel…

However I really fear you might be very close to the truth with your last sentence

@Wannago

You place a lot of stock in his rambling speech on the eve of the invasion, presumably intended to stir up nationalistic sentiment amongst his domestic audience.

We can go back through decades of speeches, declarations and warnings both by individuals on the Russian side - from leaders and politicians, to ordinary people (apparently there was hostility to NATO expansion even amongst the westernised elite), to American diplomats, in opposition to the specific concern of NATO expansion.

I emphasise that we don't know if recognising Russia's security demand would have averted the war, but we do know that intransigence has failed.

[quote FOJN]China now claiming they would like to play a part in negotiating a ceasefire. The statement says they respect the territorial integrity of all countries. I wonder if Taiwan will find that reassuring.

www.ft.com/content/e32aaff8-af24-46e1-8c7c-2a7d09387e45[/quote]
So glad to read this. I didn't think China would want to get involved in a War. Really hoping they can arrange a peaceful exit where Putin is left with a saved 'face'

Sorry for my ignorance, but for as long as Putin is Russian president, I can’t see a way back for the country’s reintegration into the world economy etc, so I’m concerned he’ll continue with threats of nuclear bombing indefinitely as he’ll have literally nothing to lose. I realise this is highly simplistic, but this is a huge long term concern.

I have to say I do apologise if I offended, that is not my intention one bit! I thought this was a thread to reasonably talk through peoples fears thoughts and opinions I dont feel like I'm getting bullied into not asking what I do not understand

@FOJN

Experts fear the convoy, which includes supply and armored attack vehicles, could be used to encircle and cut off the capital or to launch a full-on assault. The front end of the convoy is just 20 miles from the capital.

This is what I've been thinking. I've been wondering why the convoy has been sitting out in the open all day but making little progress. I think it's waiting for some other part of the plan to slot into place before it gets on with doing what it's there for. I also wondered if it was an intimidation tactic and have been thinking that the last five days have been Putin giving Ukrainians time to "see sense" and surrender. My instinct is that in the next 24 hours the capital is going to face a vicious and unrelenting assault.

I fear that you might be right

These threads move fast!

I'm still halfway through thread 4!!! Noticed it was full so have come here (damn having a job 🤣🤣)

I also fear the convoy is there getting ready for something big.

I always wondered why they'd seemed to fail in their mission so far. That doesn't sit with what we know about Putin when he sets his mind to something. I've often considered if he had a bigger plan somewhere and somehow.

@Damnloginpopup

Caught up now. Two things -

1 has there been any Israeli response to the Babyn Yar park being hit (though not targeted presumably) and are they actually siding with Russia as I've heard from a contact (surprised me)

2 Pakistan reported as signing a huge trade deal for wheat and gas with Russia. (I believe we give Pakistan a lot of financial aid don't we?

Yes. Israel has condemned the shelling and Yad Vashem world Holocaust Remembrance Centre have voiced condemnation of what it has described as a 'deadly Russian attack' (Reuters).

Starting to look like it got stuck because of poor command and control, plus a lack of fuel

I know that's what we're hearing but I'm finding to hard to believe that such a level of incompetence is possible. Of course it is possible but it just seems so unlikely. If you're right and it's poor command control and lack of fuel then hopefully they will continue to be hampered by their own incompetence.

@Damnloginpopup

Caught up now. Two things -

1 has there been any Israeli response to the Babyn Yar park being hit (though not targeted presumably) and are they actually siding with Russia as I've heard from a contact (surprised me)

2 Pakistan reported as signing a huge trade deal for wheat and gas with Russia. (I believe we give Pakistan a lot of financial aid don't we?

Corrupt leaders have an infinity for each other. I can't say that Israel much want to have modern conversations about sovereigty and the right of self determination. Their history and their present really have two very different faces.

Pakistan is recognising wheat and gas prices are going through the roof as a result of the crisis - Ukraine and Russia are two of the biggest producers. So there's going to be an issue in months to come. Buying from Russia when other won't, is financially attractive. It makes business sense. Plenty of new opportunities in 'Exiting Europe' if you will.

Oligarchs tend to do well from disaster capitalism, because they still have enough finance to be able to buy up property and businesses unable to withstand economic shock cheaply.

@RedToothBrush

I don't try to analyse Putin personally. We have no idea on that level, and there's so many unknown unknowns.

I do think that the behaviour of nation states can be reasonably predicted (and in the case of Russia, it was) based on specific principles.

The security dilemma is a well known phenomenon. Putin has often spoken about Gaddafi's fate - yes, NATO is nominally a defensive alliance, but its members have been the primary drivers of wars of aggression in the past two decades.

I believe that the primary goal of the nation state is to ensure its own survival. NATO is conceptualised as a hostile military alliance in Russia. Ukraine offers an incredible strategic advantage.

We (western nations) have never attempted to replace Putin's regime - unlike in Syria, Libya, Iran, Iraq, possibly even Venezuela recently. Why? Because Russia is comparatively strong - it's nothing to do with international law etc, or the Iraq war would never have happened. Therefore, in order to ensure this can't happen, it has to remain strong. NATO expansion was viewed as an existential threat.

I don't know if diplomacy based on accepting Russia's security concerns would have worked, but we know that intransigence failed.

A lot of those vehicles are light guns. These are not self-propelled and can be moved with very little fuel. They can be moved with helicopters and with trucks. They can be fired into buildings, loaded with splintex to shred personnel at just 50 yards and smoke shells to reduce visibility. They can drop half a dozen rounds over a block and land it 1, 4 or 10 miles on the other side. They can also be used to deliver chemical weapons precisely.

I hope they are being quietly sabotaged. But action first is better than hope.

[quote Notonthestairs]Can anyone tell me why the oligarchs have been given 30 days to move their funds?

Has this happened elsewhere (EU? US?)

twitter.com/billbrowder/status/1497674859937243138?s=21[/quote]
Apparently, its because they threatened to talk about tory party funding if they were not.

Apparently, its because they threatened to talk about tory party funding if they were not.

Can I question that please? Just in case it is for a different reason, eg Treasury rules set out in legislation.

@RedToothBrush
If it wasn't the stuff about NATO it would be something else. Because thats the mindset of dictators. Especially ones with domestic issues they are trying to paper over the cracks of

He would still be having this crisis of mortality and wanting to secure his legacy

Its ingrained into the personality of the man

As much as its tempting to cling to the idea that its about NATO, I'm afraid I just don't buy it. He'd just create another narrative

And we'd have more countries perhaps exposed and even more potential problems and not really knowing what to do.

how do you check your own thinking here? Putin has made many, many in depth speeches over the years, answered journalist questions, verified and translated by the likes of Sky News, all pretty consistent, Russia has made many announcements, there have been meetings between Putin and Zelensky which can be watched on youtube (have you watched all these?) , there have been many commentators explaing the history of the tensions, all of it points to the issues being in relation to Donbass, Crimea, encroachment of NATO, etc etc

But you say you don't buy all this, the real reasons are as you see it or how you intuit it maybe? Where do your strong views come from?

twitter.com/JamesClayton5/status/1498769143423590404?t=5P6xZmo3wAzxyiWE63HKyA&s=19
NEW: Apple has confirmed to the BBC that it is pausing its sales in Russia.

The company says Apple Pay and other services have also been limited.

Its ingrained into the personality of the man

What is really sad is the fact that he is sending countless young boys/men to face death and he see's them in exactly the same way that the Tsar's saw people, as nothing, beneath them, Serfs only fit to be cannon fodder.

@continu

This is the problem with attempting to describe and predict the behaviour of nation states by reducing it to interpretations of their leaders' personalities - with a degree of certainty that I don't believe I could predict my own parter's behaviour with.

Apple pausing sale of their products in Russia, and have already limited the use of Apple Pay.