The invasion continues - Thread No.4

[ChimChimeny]

Following the previous (2? 3?) Threads

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4492641-The-Invasion-Has-Stalled

@oakleaffy

Russians not being able to exhibit dogs at Crufts- I bet Putin really cares about that!

However, yer average Russian might be disappointed.

It’s not about that though is it . It’s about the news getting back that every country and every person is disgusted with the actions of putin in the name of Russia . A lot of people including the soldiers have been brainwashed to think they are saving Ukraine .

@RedToothBrush

Re denazification.

Its an example of rendering language meaningless. It's deliberate.

The Russian state has a lot of its identity post WW2 in terms of how the glorious empire of the Soviet Union defeated the Nazis. In a way not dissimilar to our own national identity. It says 'Hey we are the Good Guys'

However Putin is behaving like a Nazi and the state media is using phrases like 'solution to the Jewish question'.

But if Putin accuses his enemy as being Nazis he is both trying to tap into this nostalgic sense of identity and nationalism and has already used up the discourse over Nazis.

It renders the ability to talk about Nazis more difficult for the opposition. No one knows what a Nazi is anymore, so it renders it impossible to use.

Hes also tapping into older anti-semitic and genuine Nazi sentiment with the Ukrainian Solution language. There has been a big rise in far right groups in Russia so this appeals to him.

Thus Putin is both anti-fascist and fascist at the same time. Again rendering the word meaningless.

Its an Orwellian type trick well detailed in 1984 which in turn was based on Soviet style brain washing. You say things are both one thing which is completely the opposite to reality. How many fingers am I holding up Winston.

Its all about empire, making it harder to question genocidal behaviour and an invasion.

Remember this is all about the notion of Soviet/Russian Empire. It is the classic looking back to history as something to aspire to (Hitler was trying to recreate a notion of a modern Roman Empire which would last a thousand years).

So don't think its nonsense or bullshit. Its playing to several different Russian audiences at the same time and trying to occupy the space which opposition would also normally hold.

@RedToothBrush I am not sure whether this has been picked up by the press but I thought the reference to nazis was to do with what started around the time of the Maidan revolution, this is a newsnight video talking about it (2015) and is I think still an issue now

Bit besides the point but is anyone else sick to death of living through history. Was thinking back to this, Covid, Brexit, 6th Jan, Climate Change etc etc. what I’d give for headline news to be Wags behaving badly 😭😭

Anders Åslund
@anders_aslund
A Russian acquaintance sent me a private message: "We are waiting for the message: Putin is dead."

@Wannago The religious aspect is interesting and further complicated by a substantial minority of the Ukraine population being Eastern Catholic (I think about 8%, over 4 million) It was actually their cathedral Boris Johnson spoke in at the weekend, I thought possibly to avoid showing favour to one of the Orthodox factions, as some in Ukraine did remain with the Moscow Patriarchate. The split was a major and significant shift in Orthodoxy.

The whole issue and the longstanding speculation about Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and his relationship with Putin/the Kremlin is to say the least interesting, but I don't want to derail.

Thanks for these threads. I've been trying to catch up. I used to live in Moldova so have been following news closely from sources there (I speak Romanian but not Russian). Remarkably Moldovans seem to be mostly concerned with how they can help the refugees rather than thinking that it could be them next.
An interesting development there is that a lot of ordinary Moldovans get their news from Russian channels but the government is trying (and partly succeeding) to block them.

@workisnotawolf

From Wikipedia, Conscription in Russia: “As of 2021, all male citizens aged 18–27 are subject to conscription for 1 year of active duty military service in armed forces, but the precise number of conscripts for each of the recruitment campaigns, which are usually held twice annually, is prescribed by particular Presidential Decree.[12] Russian law provides some grounds for temporary postponement of and permanent exemption from military draft.”

Can we please understand who the majority of the Russian soldiers sent to Ukraine are? Are they professionals with X years of experience vs ordinary and naive conscripts plus 1 year (or even some who are mere conscripts)? Does anyone have an article or further information?

I was listening to LBC around 5pm today. There was a discussion on some of the Russian soldiers in the Ukraine and how they thought they were on a simple exercise. Once captured the Ukrainians gave them phones to call their mothers who thought they were on e.g an exercise in the Crimea where said mothers had sent food parcels.
Is this really a plausible narrative?

I have heard from a colleague who has relatives in Ukraine that this is true . They either thought they were saving Ukraine or were in an exercise and many were young men .

What's happening now sounds awful! 17 miles long convoy heading for the capital.

I really hope these acts of civil disobedience like trying to sink the boat ramp up.

The problem is , too much blood has already been shed.
That darling little girl died today and other children.

I totally understand the implications of starting www3 but I just feel we need too do more.

All these weapons we send, are there enough soldiers too even use them?
This 17 miles long convoy ...why can't it be bombed and stopped.

@natpaw
Thanks - that explains it really well.
I know different languages have different ways of expressing concepts (and I find myself being a lot more direct when I speak Dutch because of the grammar) but that notion of having to think differently is interesting.

Strichenine

Aren't we all!!

@StrychnineInTheSandwiches

Anders Åslund *@anders*_aslund A Russian acquaintance sent me a private message: "We are waiting for the message: Putin is dead."

Are you saying they wish Putin was dead ?

Can’t see he is as he will be holed up in a safe bunker somewhere.

Surely the 'denazification' thing is just a continuation of the 'anti-semitic' slurs he's been passing about Ukraine since 2014 (or earlier)? It's just a dog-whistle to those Russians who remember stories of WW2 Ukrainian SS regiments and concentration camp guards.

Yes Danni - too many images like that.

@ENoeuf

I have a question (which I’ve asked elsewhere but no reply I think) - how long with no military support can Ukraine survive and unless Putin withdraws are we just waiting until It falls? It feels incredibly voyeuristic in a way.

And to pp re: reading the threads before posting, I did skim through and I think I was on the first one but there are so many about Ukraine I wanted to check these were the continuing more serious ones.

The West ploughed weapons into Ukraine in the years before this crisis and are continuing to do so.

My worry here is that normal people are now fighting in Ukraine, which is totally understandable and heroic, but anyone and everyone gets arms, there is no assessment, no training, it is being described as guerilla warfare, it just really worries me - what is going to happen with these people after the war, what ongoing effects?

I so very much hope that the ceasefire talks are successful.

What happens if Russia achieves it's goal ?

But they need to show that they've won something and could the EU bid be part of allowing Putin to back away with (some) dignity ?

Ok, im gaming this out in my thoughts from what we seem to know, but I'll say straight away i could be out with this (feel free to take apart)

Putin wants to look 'ard. For now, certainly, any backing down from control of Ukraine is not just unpalatable but unthinkable in his eyes because of the' existential threat idea'.

He has to try and take Ukraine quickly either way.

Of course the longer the conflict rumbles on, the greater the temptation for Putin to take 'decisive action' to speed things up.

How does Putin do anything decisive?

We know theres a big conventional assault going to happen on the capital cos of the line of trucks

The BBC news stated this afternoon that 'the Russians had ominously said that the road out of Kyiv to the southwest was clear at present'. So theres a warning for civilians to get the fuck out. If you dont then 'hell we can consider you a threat and not a civilian' type thinking (of course not strictly true by any means)

So thats Putins first choice. Not nukes. It looks to me like he is perhaps throwing a sizable force unlike the initial wave.

If that fails, then what?

Two possible scenarios:

If the Ukrainians aren't over whelmed soon it will turn into a war of attrition because of that. In which Ukraine turns to rumble and the bodies pile up, whilst Putin tries to outlast international unity over sanctions.

Which isn't exactly in keeping with Putin's need to look 'ard, so thats a bit of an issue.

Which also brings me to the other scenario which references back to the well circulated '10 days before Russia is up shit creek' twitter thread thing if its true (in terms of Russian bombs and equipment running out long before it runs out of body bags).

Especially it you have run out of tanks, armour, guns and munitions. But you have rather a lot of small scale short range tactical nukes.

Putin has stated intent, but one which he doesn't want to do. But will do if he feels forced to. The pretext is set up. He can blame the west for interferring and sending weapons etc etc.

I don't know if thats how things will go. But if you game out the options and what Putins objectives are and what his statements of intent are, thats where you perhaps are lead.

But it requires other things to happen first.

If thats really the case, it also wont just be me making that reflection.

Before you all panic, its also worth reflecting that even Putin is unlikely to go down that route whilst he has a substantial amount of his own troops in close proximity to a target. Its not worth the domestic grief. You'd expect another ratcheting up of language, threats and a tactical withdrawal to occur first.

I hope im completely barking up the wrong true, but unfortunately it seems to be logical in many reasons. Maybe thats too logical!

@FatFredsFriedEgg

Surely the 'denazification' thing is just a continuation of the 'anti-semitic' slurs he's been passing about Ukraine since 2014 (or earlier)? It's just a dog-whistle to those Russians who remember stories of WW2 Ukrainian SS regiments and concentration camp guards.

No I think it is the neo nazis, this explains when it started:

@Thereisnolight

I said on the previous thread on pg 40 that some Polish colleagues I spoke to are enraged and heading to Poland to join their reserves. They have no interest in diplomacy - they are convinced that they are next and are vv angry and ready to fight. These are people I thought were calm and peaceful. It’s a tinderbox over there - on both sides. I hope things can be resolved by diplomacy. Which Ukraine applying for the EU now really isn’t.

No surprise, Poland and Russia hate each other. The rhetoric from Polish politicians has been VERY strong. Prime Minister Morawiecki called the initial German response a joke and has repeatedly called for every possible sanction. I understand that they might be legitimately concerned about the situation and are trying to garner additional support from the EU/US, both on behalf of Ukraine and in case the fight should spill over to Poland, but it is also stirring up a lot of barely dormant anti-Russian sentiment in the general population.

The video is by newsnight

A lot of Zelensky’s father’s family were murdered in the Holocaust. Doubtful that he’s a NeoNazi.

LedByDonkeys were down at the Russian Embassy tonight with a message from Ukraine to the British Government.

"Russian oligarchs, they own London … they empower Vladimir Putin, they make him an absolutely untouchable dictator” - a message on the Russian embassy

twitter.com/ByDonkeys/status/1496907482043920384

@RedToothBrush

But they need to show that they've won something and could the EU bid be part of allowing Putin to back away with (some) dignity ?

Ok, im gaming this out in my thoughts from what we seem to know, but I'll say straight away i could be out with this (feel free to take apart)

Putin wants to look 'ard. For now, certainly, any backing down from control of Ukraine is not just unpalatable but unthinkable in his eyes because of the' existential threat idea'.

He has to try and take Ukraine quickly either way.

Of course the longer the conflict rumbles on, the greater the temptation for Putin to take 'decisive action' to speed things up.

How does Putin do anything decisive?

We know theres a big conventional assault going to happen on the capital cos of the line of trucks

The BBC news stated this afternoon that 'the Russians had ominously said that the road out of Kyiv to the southwest was clear at present'. So theres a warning for civilians to get the fuck out. If you dont then 'hell we can consider you a threat and not a civilian' type thinking (of course not strictly true by any means)

So thats Putins first choice. Not nukes. It looks to me like he is perhaps throwing a sizable force unlike the initial wave.

If that fails, then what?

Two possible scenarios:

If the Ukrainians aren't over whelmed soon it will turn into a war of attrition because of that. In which Ukraine turns to rumble and the bodies pile up, whilst Putin tries to outlast international unity over sanctions.

Which isn't exactly in keeping with Putin's need to look 'ard, so thats a bit of an issue.

Which also brings me to the other scenario which references back to the well circulated '10 days before Russia is up shit creek' twitter thread thing if its true (in terms of Russian bombs and equipment running out long before it runs out of body bags).

Especially it you have run out of tanks, armour, guns and munitions. But you have rather a lot of small scale short range tactical nukes.

Putin has stated intent, but one which he doesn't want to do. But will do if he feels forced to. The pretext is set up. He can blame the west for interferring and sending weapons etc etc.

I don't know if thats how things will go. But if you game out the options and what Putins objectives are and what his statements of intent are, thats where you perhaps are lead.

But it requires other things to happen first.

If thats really the case, it also wont just be me making that reflection.

Before you all panic, its also worth reflecting that even Putin is unlikely to go down that route whilst he has a substantial amount of his own troops in close proximity to a target. Its not worth the domestic grief. You'd expect another ratcheting up of language, threats and a tactical withdrawal to occur first.

I hope im completely barking up the wrong true, but unfortunately it seems to be logical in many reasons. Maybe thats too logical!

I'm concerned that this is a better explained, better worded version of my own prediction in an earlier thread 😕

When I said it I could just think myself paranoid, but I know how good you are at this kind of analysis

@Igotjelly

Bit besides the point but is anyone else sick to death of living through history. Was thinking back to this, Covid, Brexit, 6th Jan, Climate Change etc etc. what I’d give for headline news to be Wags behaving badly 😭😭

THIS

It’s never. fucking. ending.

Can’t we just have some normality without the threat of nuclear war, pandemics, supply chain issues, rising sea levels and storms from hell.

I’d love to just see the papers with front pages of Lizzy Cundy, Kerry Katona and Serial shagger Lee Ryan up to mischief for a few months without wondering if I need to buy loo roll, book a jab and test or buy Iodine tablets in bulk every time I pass the newspaper shelves in M&S 😭🙏🏻

Agree, since 2016 it's been one thing after another! 😭

@RedToothBrush It is extremely unlikely that Putin would ever use nuclear weapons in Ukraine. I don't think it's worth even thinking about, it will just frighten people.

Putin can't nuke a country he's claiming to liberate, the radiation would affect Russians pretty badly too, and it could be a casus belli for NATO states as they would be bound to be affected as well.