The invasion continues - Thread No.4

[ChimChimeny]

Following the previous (2? 3?) Threads

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4492641-The-Invasion-Has-Stalled

Putin has bitten off far more than he can chew, he has no real way of winning this war in the long term

Is this really the case though? I know this is the narrative that is being offered right now, but the war is only a few days old. Is it not too early to be able to predict how this will end up?

Soldiers are Turing themselves in to Ukraine, other soldiers are advising Putin has advised if they don’t fight they will be imprisoned for 15-20 years

How do we know any of this is true? Where is this information coming from? This is what I mean by propaganda flowing from both sides.

I think Putin's end game is what he's said in the past - that losing the Soviet Union was the biggest tragedy in Russian history. He wants to go down in history as the man who rebuilt it - and had Russian borders surrounded by satellite states that make Russia feel safe. That's why if he 'wins' in Ukraine I don't think he'll stop. Although this hasn't gone as he'd expected so it's all up in the air now. If he's deposed will it be because the war was wrong, or because it was a cock up?

@DottyDoge - it's a standing joke from an initial auto correct for place marking. It became a standard thing with infinite variations, some involving cats, on the long running Westministenders threads.

It = place mat king etc.

@Alondra I think you have given another perspective on this and I have read your posts with interest.

Putin has no right to invade Ukraine, but the facts behind it don't seem to be as black and white as some may wish. I am still learning, though.

@ClaudineClare

Putin has bitten off far more than he can chew, he has no real way of winning this war in the long term

Is this really the case though? I know this is the narrative that is being offered right now, but the war is only a few days old. Is it not too early to be able to predict how this will end up?

Soldiers are Turing themselves in to Ukraine, other soldiers are advising Putin has advised if they don’t fight they will be imprisoned for 15-20 years

How do we know any of this is true? Where is this information coming from? This is what I mean by propaganda flowing from both sides.

Yes.

Its true.

Purely because even if he wins in military terms, he still has to win hearts and minds on the ground.

That will mean years stuck in Ukraine as an occupation force.

Think Afghanistan 'insurgents'/defender of sovereignty'. Or IRA 'freedom fighters'/'terrorists'.

Not going away.

His heavy handed approach has merely poured petrol on a situation. He was under the impression that many Ukrainians would be sympathetic to Russia. Turns out even Russian speaking Ukrainians don't particularly care for the neighbour getting a rapid makeover.

China has said it does not support sanctions against Russia. This is significant, isn't it?

I've just seen the Sky news clip of the Russian missile strike on the Govt Administration building in Freedom Square in Kharkiv - dear God !!

(it doesn't show injured people, btw but there must've been loss of life)

[quote ClaudineClare]@Alondra I think you have given another perspective on this and I have read your posts with interest.

Putin has no right to invade Ukraine, but the facts behind it don't seem to be as black and white as some may wish. I am still learning, though.[/quote]
If you’re interested read Putin’s speech which gives his reasons, close to pp.

While it’s great that people donate money to charities, what has been different this time is the massive donation of ITEMS - clothes, hygiene products, baby products - that are being gathered by Eastern Europeans and driven in their own trucks and vans directly to where they are needed. Minimal waste of money, maximum efficacy. It’s been amazing to see.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.politico.eu/article/belarus-russia-war-ukraine/amp/

Belarusian troops have supposedly crossed the border into Ukraine.

How is this conflict going to be worked out? I think there'll be a signed agreement where Ukraine, like Finland, becomes a neutral territory.

Not such a great plan, gain one neutral territory, lose another. Finnish Parliament is starting debates today on joining NATO, public support has gone up to majority pro for the first time ever. Other neutral countries will likely be considering the same thing.

Solovey has said putin has moved his family to an underground Palace in siberia which would protect them against a nuclear war.

Meanwhile, Biden seems asleep at the wheel, Trump is making hay with a hollowed-out Republican cult at CPAC which Farage did a turn and the famous televangelist Pat Robertson says Putin is doing god's work.

www.usatodaynews.us/televangelist-pat-robertson-says-vladimir-putins-march-on-ukraine-is-the-beginning-of-the-end-times/?amp=1

@ClaudineClare

China has said it does not support sanctions against Russia. This is significant, isn't it?

Well as several pps have pointed out, sanctions will mainly hurt people who don’t deserve it. So I can see why a “neutral” country like China will not actively support it.

@Alondra

None of you get it, do you?

I don't support Putin's war agains Ukraine, normal people are losing lives and it's hearbreaking. It's always us, the people, that lose out in a war. ALWAYS.

But I also don't support what NATO and the US have been doing for a long time. This is not a war that just happened and if you don't want to understand more fool you.

You don't support an independent sovereign country entering conversations with other possible world allies to secure it's safety?

Ukraine is a young country in today's terms. It has every right to enquire about joining the EU and NATO. So do you disagree with Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania?

Johnson in Warsaw, trying to sound Churchillian. I think he has had a slight haircut.

If Finland join does that mean Putin will attack? He threatened, didn't he?

I had no idea how close Helsinki is to St Petersburg. There is a lot of Russia to defend, so if there was trouble on two borders, it could get very difficult.

Am a bit ashamed of my geography skills, am learning a lot...

ClaudineClare

China has said it does not support sanctions against Russia. This is significant, isn't it?

Not really, both countries have N informal agreement to coordinate diplomatic and economic moves, China has a 23% state if their exports so the sanctions will hit China.

How is this conflict going to be worked out? I think there'll be a signed agreement where Ukraine, like Finland, becomes a neutral territory.

Dream on.

Anyway Finland is not 'neutral' anymore, this is not the Cold War era. They are in the EU. They do exercises and consultations with NATO all the time, some say they have better interoperability with NATO than actual members. They are strongly opposed to the Russian invasion and for the first time polls show majority support for joining NATO.

Ukraine can choose to be neutral if they want to be. But right now they don't want to be. And that is really the essence of this conflict. Do the countries of Eastern Europe have the right to decide their own fate? Or do they have to sacrifice their independent choices to placate the Russian bully?

For 30 years people have bought into this idea that Russia needs and deserves a 'buffer zone'. I don't think people will be so quick to say that after this war.

God my posts . apologies if I’m not making sense been up all night with a kidney stone flare up, drugged up to the hilt and trying to distract myself from the pain.

@Alondra

How many more countries - your own?

Well...now you are talking about my own county maybe I should let you know that I'm a Spaniard. A country where a dictator like Franco, who exterminated hundred of thousands of lives after the civil war ended, was only able to do so with the support of the US. USA was looking for a communist witch hunt thanks to McCarthy and supported Franco without giving a shit about the people he massacred because they were republicans.

You have fucking no idea about geopolitics and how it affects all of us.

You're not wrong, some very poorly educated people on this thread. All academic and serious sources are looking at this differently. The seeds of this war were sown many, many yrs ago. How the nation sees itself globally, behavior post-ww2-then behavior once the political entity that was the USSR collapsed.

We're seeing the Russian use of maskirovka or reflexive control, information on the war is disjointed deliberately so.
Now personally I think the west needs to step in dust off its armaments and push back against Putin. Whether we want to or not our hand is being forced.

@HaudYerWheeshtYaWeeBellend

God my posts . apologies if I’m not making sense been up all night with a kidney stone flare up, drugged up to the hilt and trying to distract myself from the pain.

Ouch poor you. I think I grasped what you meant.

Btw you might be interested in the 'Winter War' between Finland and the USSR at the beginning of the Second World War:

www.history.com/news/what-was-the-winter-war

The Finns put up an amazing resistance, it is still celebrated today.

This is where the Molotov cocktail comes from btw!

MrHuff maybe you’ll answer then, is Putin justified in his actions?