The invasion continues - Thread No.4

[ChimChimeny]

Following the previous (2? 3?) Threads

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4492641-The-Invasion-Has-Stalled

[quote Cam77]@CPL593H
The whole invasion seems so off key and inept on Russia's part

It's possible that this is the case. It's also possible that these blunders are minor and early, are being seriously over egged by Western media, and will have minimal consequence on a conflict that could continue for months or years. From a quick reading of Western headlines you would think this is the first time in history a country's inhabitants have fought fiercely and bravely to try to stave off a much stronger rival. Sometimes the resistance succeeds and sometimes not, but the fighting for territory is often counted in years , not days.[/quote]
Very true. I suppose a bit of early years belief in the 'mighty, fearsome Soviet war machine' lingers on. I've reminded myself of the almighty hash they made in Afghanistan.

One interesting thing from the Fiona Hill interview with Politico (in which she says WWIII is well underway) was that she thought he looked puffy, perhaps from steroid use.

That might explain why he appears to be so terrified of Covid-19 – has huge spaces even between him and his own advisors, insists on own PCR test for visitors who get close – if he's on immunosuppressants he would be CEV and more likely to be hospitalised/ICU if he gets it. He's already vulnerable from being 69. There have been previous reports of Parkinson's/cancer, which I see are cropping up again today. Equally, could be just disinformation though...

What worries me about that convoy is what is in it ?

Is there a possibility that enough russian soldiers could simply say 'no more'?

I'm just musing (in a very uneducated way) about the non moving convoy. About how useless a 40 mile convoy could actually be in terms of an invasion on Kyiv... And whether it's possible that the Russian military could refuse to move any further.

Most likely entirely daft and wishful thinking, but just something that entered my mind.

@dreamingbohemian
I don't see the Putin supporters on this thread admitting that annexing Crimea and invading Ukraine is unlawful. Because they agree with what he's doing. Just admit it.

I'm not a Putin supporter and I certainly don't agree with what Putin is doing nor, nor for what it's worth, do I consider it "lawful".

I am also able to see the conflict in its context in centuries of history of nation states taking aggressive and underhand actions, and waging "unlawful" wars, etc to secure or gain regional and international supremacy and the ramifications of those actions.

But if you want to dismiss context and history as whataboutism that's up to you. Seems like it's the new trend.

None of you get it, do you?

I don't support Putin's war agains Ukraine, normal people are losing lives and it's hearbreaking. It's always us, the people, that lose out in a war. ALWAYS.

But I also don't support what NATO and the US have been doing for a long time. This is not a war that just happened and if you don't want to understand more fool you.

FFS!

Are you for real Alonda do you honestly think Putin will continue being a superpower after all his illegal war crimes ?

He has alienated the Russia people for centuries and no one will trust him or Russia again, he doesn’t care about his people only his own agenda of him being a madman!!!

What do you think his end game will be? You’ve spoken up now you may as well speak openly and frankly!!!

@Alondra

None of you get it, do you?

I don't support Putin's war agains Ukraine, normal people are losing lives and it's hearbreaking. It's always us, the people, that lose out in a war. ALWAYS.

But I also don't support what NATO and the US have been doing for a long time. This is not a war that just happened and if you don't want to understand more fool you.

Yes it’s straight from Putin’s speech re why he’s doing this. Which you agree with.

Is there a possibility that enough russian soldiers could simply say 'no more'?

That’s already happening, Soldiers are Turing themselves in to Ukraine, other soldiers are advising Putin has advised if they don’t fight they will be imprisoned for 15-20 years.

I agree with PP that Wendi Deng could be a spy as she certainly is a common denominator.

Putin, Trump, Murdoch, Blair

Murdoch’s sons thought so too

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6883421/amp/Rupert-Murdochs-two-sons-tried-talk-marrying-Wendi-Deng-thought-spy.html

[quote Cam77]**@dreamingbohemian
I don't see the Putin supporters on this thread admitting that annexing Crimea and invading Ukraine is unlawful. Because they agree with what he's doing. Just admit it.

I'm not a Putin supporter and I certainly don't agree with what Putin is doing nor, nor for what it's worth, do I consider it "lawful".

I am also able to see the conflict in its context in centuries of history of nation states taking aggressive and underhand actions, and waging "unlawful" wars, etc to secure or gain regional and international supremacy and the ramifications of those actions.

But if you want to dismiss context and history as whataboutism that's up to you. Seems like it's the new trend.[/quote]
Also @dreamingbohemian the issues are subject to international law, the posters here being judge and jury are passing comment but the issues are subject to international law, which is complicated and we won't have the full facts or the expertise

Cam77

There's a difference between providing context and history (which I have been doing on the earlier threads myself) and using it to justify what Putin is doing now. I apologise for misunderstanding you. There are others on this thread who seem to support Putin's actions 'because the West did it first'.

I absolutely agree that the US/UK did enormous harm to international norms and laws with their interventions. Not just Iraq and Afghanistan but Libya, when they obtained UN authorisation for a humanitarian intervention which evolved into regime change. (You can argue about whether that was necessary but it was still dodgy legally.)

Of course this had an effect on Russian thinking but we shouldn't forget their own history, before any of these US/UK actions, in invading/intervening in other countries. It's not like the Soviets/Russians never engaged in any unlawful interventions or aggression until the West did it first.

So I agree it's worth looking at a long history of great power aggression, I just don't agree with trying to excuse Russian aggression today by saying 'what about Iraq'. All of these cases are terrible.

I don't think it's helpful debating whether past military actions were justified given the current Russian military assault on a democratic country. For starters, it's easy to judge past actions with the benefit of hindsight.

We know this current Russian action is an anti-democratic attempt to rebuild part of the Russian empire by subjugating a country of 40 million, who don't want to be oppressed, to fulfil Putin's personal ideals.

Modern Russia is pretty much a lie - people living as though they are in a democratic country when they have no freedom of expression, etc. Oligarchs are allowed to run businesses along western capitalist lines as long as they support the regime.

Yes, there is propaganda in the West too, but at least we can question what we're told and have the means to research more widely.

Maybe that's naive, but I know where I'd rather be.

The Elephant in the room.

China

What are their stances on this? Sit back and watch Putin destroy his reputation, then pick up the economic peieces?

@Wrongkindofovercoat

What worries me about that convoy is what is in it ?

That is what I was wondering too.

I'm not sure Russia Today should be banned. Their more outlandish claims should be fact-checked and they should be made to publish correction statements, but we live in a democracy and there should only be censorship of statements which incite violence and the like or cause harm like misinformation about the covid vaccine.

I agree that we get a very Western viewpoint. However, invading a peaceful country is never ok, whatever the "provocation".

I think it suits China to sit back and watch how it plays out. A destabilised Russia probably suits them. Less of a threat to them and they need to trade with the West.

@Contenteddays

It really boils down to this: Putin has bitten off far more than he can chew, he has no real way of winning this war in the long term.

It is an unmitigated disaster for both the Russian people (losing thousands of young soldiers and the terrible economical consequences) and of course the innocent Ukrainian people, both now are suffering terribly and will for decades to come.

Putin needs to come to a reasonable compromise and get the hell out of Ukraine before his inner circle turn on him and Russia becomes even more unstable.

Do you see this as the exit? I thought the same.

When they start to see the real impact on Russia, and the sanctions being imposed, they will hopefully stage a coup.

I think the sports being banned is powerful, not in sports terms, but in terms that Russian's will start to ask why (outside of the propoganda) machine

@dreamingbohemian

Cam77

There's a difference between providing context and history (which I have been doing on the earlier threads myself) and using it to justify what Putin is doing now. I apologise for misunderstanding you. There are others on this thread who seem to support Putin's actions 'because the West did it first'.

I absolutely agree that the US/UK did enormous harm to international norms and laws with their interventions. Not just Iraq and Afghanistan but Libya, when they obtained UN authorisation for a humanitarian intervention which evolved into regime change. (You can argue about whether that was necessary but it was still dodgy legally.)

Of course this had an effect on Russian thinking but we shouldn't forget their own history, before any of these US/UK actions, in invading/intervening in other countries. It's not like the Soviets/Russians never engaged in any unlawful interventions or aggression until the West did it first.

So I agree it's worth looking at a long history of great power aggression, I just don't agree with trying to excuse Russian aggression today by saying 'what about Iraq'. All of these cases are terrible.

But no one is excusing aggression are they? They are explaining context which many posters are not aware of. Or talking about ceasefire which many posters are not aware of.

I don't understand the end game from the Russian point of view, and I would like to

A thought has occurred to me that perhaps Putin knows he is dying soon (terminal illness, perhaps has been given a short time frame by doctors) and wants to 'go out strong' but hasn't planned an end game, knowing he won't be around for it.
Just a wild thought but as none of this seems to make sense perhaps it is something outlandish like this.

@Contenteddays

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk guidelines.

Ukraine invasion is not a whim. It's been prepared and thought about for a long time. There is obviously political posturing about Putin and what he says but ...Russia has signed trade deals with China and India in the last few months - which means he can bypass trade sanctions with the West and won't affect him that much...and Russia has been amassing an enormous amount of reserves in gold in the last few years.

How is this conflict going to be worked out? I think there'll be a signed agreement where Ukraine, like Finland, becomes a neutral territory.

@Wrongkindofovercoat

What worries me about that convoy is what is in it ?

.and you are worried it contains what?

Plenty of armies end up with a “logistics tail”….