The invasion continues - Thread No.4

[ChimChimeny]

Following the previous (2? 3?) Threads

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4492641-The-Invasion-Has-Stalled

@Monitaurus

Thanks all. Is this part of the Uks contribution , and which country’s planes are being refuelled? Don’t they land for refuelling purposes usually? Glad of all the experts here.

Aircraft out of Mildenhall are generally USAF. (American)

There have been RAF tankers also, operating out of Akrotiri in Cyprus and also direct out of UK.

Anybodies guess really who is being refueled- but it will mainly be British /American assets.

Worth being aware not all nations have fighters that can take on fuel in flight, and also that the US system (or some aspects of it) are not compatible with the system the RAF uses, and vice versa (boom vs. probe and drogue for the technically minded).

Air to air refueling is done in a matter of a few minutes per fighter, is done almost in their operating area and once refueled they are immediately available agin where they might be needed.

OTOH landing to refuel means you need suitable airports, kit on the ground, fuel tanked in and takes the fighters away from their operating area for however long landing, taxiing in, refueling, taxi out, take off etc etc takes.

HTH.

@katem98

This is some positive news?

Reverse ferret ?

Do you have sympathy with his views and think this invasion is justified?

Apparently so. Click on See all on Alondra's post.

@HaudYerWheeshtYaWeeBellend

*It's quite obvious the Russian military is attacking civilian targets and he's using the blunt tool of the multiple launch rocket system.*

There is clear evidence this now, Russian solider text messages /cluster bombs being used in residential areas / hospital bombings etc…

He's using these in civilian areas.

Disgusting.

@PeonyRose80

Genuine Question as vastly ignorant on parts of this ongoing war. But; Russia has this massive convoy of tanks (bbc news) if Russia basically come in all guns blazing and take Khiv, they declare victory and fly the Russian flag, government buildings now “Russian” - does everyone just say oh sorry Ukraine… or does NATO actually do something?

I think even if Kyiv falls, there is going to be a clear ongoing guerrilla war for sometime which will keep Russia busy. That will undoubtedly be supplied by NATO whatever happens.

Urban warfare is brutal though and estimates are that it takes 5 attacks for every 1 defender.

Remember you also can't heavily bomb a city if your troops are already in it.

By all accounts there is some indication that Russian troops are having issues with coordination, so that makes bombings more unlikely once they are in a city.

The closer they get to the city, the less risk of thermobaric bombs. Shells yes. But you are also at some point going to face the problem of hitting your own people.

Tanks are really unsuitable for urban warfare because they are an easy target. Urban warfare requires personal. Remember that the Ukrainians know the streets and the Russian don't. We don't know how experienced these troops are. I think I saw stuff about how few Russian soliders have any sort of battle experience. And they certainly have low moral and no real desire to be there.

The incoming convoy is a big concern but it, in itself raises questions about strategy.

@MissConductUS

Do you have sympathy with his views and think this invasion is justified?

Apparently so. Click on See all on Alondra's post.

Tbh I have to skip most of them as they are so off base but wondering if they’d admit it upfront.

How far do they support him though, which countries- their own..

Russia asked for ceasefire discussions because of pressure from their closest partners, not sanctions.

Did you mean Ukraine? As I’ve seen/read absolutely nothing that Russia has asked for a ceasefire while Ukraine has…. yet Russia is still bombing civilians!

@AlecTrevelyan006

So the convoy is allegedly 40 miles long. It would take 2-3 days to walk its length. Arriving with a tanker at the back isn't going to help the tanks at the front. How do you distribute food and water along it, let alone fuel and munitions?

There can be no tactical reason why a convoy is sat out in the open, bunched together like this one is. If they were just waiting to attack or wanting to intimidate they'd be spread out tactically

They have low morale, presumably all comms are blocked, running out of food and water and are stting in the woods.

How does the artillery get within range of Kyiv other than being stuck in this convoy or having to go cross country? Those rocket launchers have a range of what, 26 miles and they've three left. How do you get them close enough without them being blown up by 10k+ anti tank?

How do you lay siege to Kyiv in the middle of one of the largest countries in Europe when you don't control any of the rest of the country? You'd just get picked off from behind.

The moment a plane starts indiscriminately bombing Kyiv will presumably be the moment this convoy is taken out.

I can't see how this convoy is anything more that a load of clueless, st scared, demotivated conscripts, with no leadership or clue what to do next? You just wouldn't sit there in a long line for any other reason?

It's that convoy that's under siege, not Kyiv.

Obviously I'm just armchairing so don't actually have a clue

Its a justified argument.

If you start attacking from the front of the queue, then what happens further back.

The line is a traffic jam if you just take out a few vehicles.

That slows the whole attack down. The defenders only have to fight small sections of the incoming force at a time. That makes it much easier for them to take out the invaders.

Its not as simple as merely having an advantage in terms of numbers. If your numbers arent in a place able to provide actual support then its not a lot of use.

The fact that not as much as I expected to happen, is happening, is making me uneasy. I expected that Russia would have gone in hard and fast, a bit like 'shock and awe' in Iraq.

This all just seems really weird. Almost half-hearted. Is it incompetence? Was it a massive bluff and they don't have the equipment/power/expertise that they said that they have? Are they biding their time and then going to massively go for it? Are they meeting more resistance than they thought? Are they surprised about the strength of feeling from the west? What is the convoy doing? Why aren't they really going in from the air? Usually, I have a fairly good idea of how things are going to turn out, but I just can't figure this one out, I know that I don't like it though.

As an empath I've really struggled this last week with the constant negative news cycle. I've been in tears at the reports of shelling of hospitals, missiles hitting apartment blocks and clips of dead soldiers and a Ukranian father being shot whilst his son takes cover behind the car. What is this world coming to? I see a lot of religious people on social media saying its the beginning of the end of days. I'm not religious, but I'm wondering if it could be true?

@Alexandra2001

I also think that if ceasefire is agreed, the UN needs to go in to keep the peace because unless by some miracle the issues around Crimea and Donbas are agreed, they will continue to make the region unstable

Cease fire! are you for real?

Putin is going to carry on until he has "conquered" Ukraine or least the eastern half from Kyiv eastward.

He is too far embedded into this venture and we will soon have to decide whether to go to war with Russia or not.

Neither USA or NATO will go with to war against Russia. To do so will have catastrophic consequences on the whole world. It didn't happen during Cuba's missiles crisis, it won't happen now.

The US and Europe have sacrificed Ukraine. Despite all the sanctions and news we constantly read to the contrary, they have when they haven't committed to support the country with boots.

In a few short months this war will be gone from opening news from the MSN to just another news update no one really cares about.

I just can't believe people short memories of Iraq, of Afghanistan, of the Balkans war.

As an empath...

Oh for goodness sake!

@HaudYerWheeshtYaWeeBellend

*Russia asked for ceasefire discussions because of pressure from their closest partners, not sanctions.*

Did you mean Ukraine? As I’ve seen/read absolutely nothing that Russia has asked for a ceasefire while Ukraine has…. yet Russia is still bombing civilians!

Re top line where is ceasefire part coming from?

@HaudYerWheeshtYaWeeBellend

*Russia asked for ceasefire discussions because of pressure from their closest partners, not sanctions.*

Did you mean Ukraine? As I’ve seen/read absolutely nothing that Russia has asked for a ceasefire while Ukraine has…. yet Russia is still bombing civilians!

@HaudYerWheeshtYaWeeBellend No, Russia called for the current ceasefire negotiations. Last night both sides wanted the talks to continue. It is something to be very hopeful about.

@PeonyRose80

Genuine Question as vastly ignorant on parts of this ongoing war. But; Russia has this massive convoy of tanks (bbc news) if Russia basically come in all guns blazing and take Khiv, they declare victory and fly the Russian flag, government buildings now “Russian” - does everyone just say oh sorry Ukraine… or does NATO actually do something?

NATO then arms and funds what would probably be a fairly strong insurgency. They already started making plans for this before the invasion, because they assumed they would reach that stage much quicker than this.

Russia cannot keep such a huge number of troops in Ukraine indefinitely, especially with sanctions and everything else affecting them. They would be hugely vulnerable to a well -funded insurgency. Especially as (like the US in Iraq) they seem to have assumed they would be greeted as liberators and haven't planned for counterinsurgency at all.

I just can't believe people short memories of Iraq, of Afghanistan, of the Balkans war.

Please stop spouting this BS, you can’t compare the 2, they are completely different and I just don’t have the will or want to explain it to you because frankly it would be wasted!!!

@alondra The US and Europe have sacrificed Ukraine. Despite all the sanctions and news we constantly read to the contrary, they have when they haven't committed to support the country with boots I think that this is something which will need further examination after the war to be honest. EU and US have ploughed weapons into Ukraine over last few years in readiness for this, according to Asian news reports. I think there is more to unravel here which first meets the eye.

Well we can discuss the convoy all day long but fact is the whole world knows where it is, it’s a ground attack pilots dream, it’s also a fairly soft target for determined ground assault.,,knock of the vehicles at the front and back PDQ then go down the line..If the Ukrainians could have hit it I’m sure they would…

So either the Ukrainians haven’t got the means to make a meaningful attack on it because the Russians have local control of the air and ground, or it is a colossal screw up by the Russians and it is only a matter of time before we have a rerun of the Falaise gap or the Highway of Death.

My take on why Russia isn't having an early win is that they simply didn't expect resistance. They have no strategy for a strong resistance as their propaganda was all about liberation. The troops believed the lies, and aren't coping with the reality.

@LampLighter414

As an empath I've really struggled this last week with the constant negative news cycle. I've been in tears at the reports of shelling of hospitals, missiles hitting apartment blocks and clips of dead soldiers and a Ukranian father being shot whilst his son takes cover behind the car. What is this world coming to? I see a lot of religious people on social media saying its the beginning of the end of days. I'm not religious, but I'm wondering if it could be true?

You're not an 'empath' for having these feelings, you are just a human being.

Putin failed to implement Rule #1 of war fare - establish air supremacy first and foremost.

Why? Who knows, but most likely he thinks he knows better than his military commanders (they will have advised him to do this). It’s all harking back again to the Eastern Front in WWII when both Hitler and Stalin thought they knew best (with Stalin ignoring intelligence that Germany was about to invade and Hitler insisting on opening up multiple fronts and not preparing troops for fighting in a Russian winter).

Like cheating men always follow a script, so do dictators.

@notimagain

Well we can discuss the convoy all day long but fact is the whole world knows where it is, it’s a ground attack pilots dream, it’s also a fairly soft target for determined ground assault.,,knock of the vehicles at the front and back PDQ then go down the line..If the Ukrainians could have hit it I’m sure they would…

So either the Ukrainians haven’t got the means to make a meaningful attack on it because the Russians have local control of the air and ground, or it is a colossal screw up by the Russians and it is only a matter of time before we have a rerun of the Falaise gap or the Highway of Death.

... or because they are in ceasefire talks at the moment.

@TokyoSushi

The fact that not as much as I expected to happen, is happening, is making me uneasy. I expected that Russia would have gone in hard and fast, a bit like 'shock and awe' in Iraq.

This all just seems really weird. Almost half-hearted. Is it incompetence? Was it a massive bluff and they don't have the equipment/power/expertise that they said that they have? Are they biding their time and then going to massively go for it? Are they meeting more resistance than they thought? Are they surprised about the strength of feeling from the west? What is the convoy doing? Why aren't they really going in from the air? Usually, I have a fairly good idea of how things are going to turn out, but I just can't figure this one out, I know that I don't like it though.

I think because it was all part of the same narrative and they thought it would be quite fast

@TokyoSushi

The fact that not as much as I expected to happen, is happening, is making me uneasy. I expected that Russia would have gone in hard and fast, a bit like 'shock and awe' in Iraq.

This all just seems really weird. Almost half-hearted. Is it incompetence? Was it a massive bluff and they don't have the equipment/power/expertise that they said that they have? Are they biding their time and then going to massively go for it? Are they meeting more resistance than they thought? Are they surprised about the strength of feeling from the west? What is the convoy doing? Why aren't they really going in from the air? Usually, I have a fairly good idea of how things are going to turn out, but I just can't figure this one out, I know that I don't like it though.

Same feeling I'm getting.

The 'Ukrainians need to hold out 10 days' twitter thread is very much on my mind. Until I KNOW what we suspect, and I KNOW the risk of nukes etc is overblown I keep waiting for that Russian breakthrough.

Everh day that passes where that doesn't happen, you look more at a war of attrition.

I also keep in mind the principle that there being some grand master plan about to be sprung on us, isn't terribly likely either because of the impact this prolonged situation is having on Putin's reputation.

Hanlon's razor applies: never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity/incompetence.

Again we KNOW that the Americans had good intelligence that Putin was definitely going to launch an attack. I'd like to bet they have a fair idea of the state of the army in terms of equipment, logistics and moral. We already seem to be getting a fair idea.

The risk for me, remains what does a frustrated Putin do. And how far will other continue to follow.

But in terms of Russian military competence, it isnt a good look right now.

Its not helping my nerves though.

What is Russia’s archilles’ heel? Is it St Petersburg? Will the world ever start think offensive rather than defensive vis a vis Putin? Are there any territories China would be interested in in Russia?
I am assuming the US has not further interest in Siberia East of Alaska or is that incorrect?
At what point it is necessary to become offensive with a bully? At what point do we, the whole world, think of liberating the Russian people from this regime, rather than just the rhethoric of the Russians need to take him out themselves.
I realise the above is never going to happen so these are just “academic” questions but surely you cannot attack other countries and not expect the same to happen back.