The invasion continues - Thread No.4

[ChimChimeny]

Following the previous (2? 3?) Threads

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4492641-The-Invasion-Has-Stalled

@Monitaurus

Thank you to everyone contributing here. Before I get totally obsessed with watching planes on flight radar, could anyone hazard a guess about the large plane circling around in Romania having set out from mIldenhall earlier...no destination?

@Monitaurus Odds are it is a tanker for mid-air refuelling. I live near Mildenhall, there are tankers leaving/returning several times a day at the moment.

[quote Alondra]With two friendly countries, cutting off a water supply would be an act of aggression. Ukraine cut it off becaue crimea was annexed - whether you think this is reasonable or not is another question, I am just explaining the situation

Not only an act of agression to a territory Ukraine still claims as their own, but an act of war considering the atrocities the Azov batalion committed in the Donbass with the support of the actual Ukraine government.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion[/quote]
So annexing isnt a war act?

I get the point about bias, but ffs, thats some proper lack of critical thinking going on.

Annexing part of someone else's country is about as hostile as it gets!

Why is it not a good comparison?

There is no point going on about canals etc & the war is not contained in Ukraine at all, there will soon be millions of refugees in Europe, Ukraine has a pop. of 44m, if just 10% flee, how will we cope with such a humanitarian crisis?

We need to decide what to do next.

Genuine Question as vastly ignorant on parts of this ongoing war. But; Russia has this massive convoy of tanks (bbc news) if Russia basically come in all guns blazing and take Khiv, they declare victory and fly the Russian flag, government buildings now “Russian” - does everyone just say oh sorry Ukraine… or does NATO actually do something?

army rosters filled with 'ghost' soliders...

Sorry being facetious for a moment - this reminds me of Prokofiev's Lieutenant Kijé.

Odds are it is a tanker for mid-air refuelling. I live near Mildenhall, there are tankers leaving/returning several times a day at the moment.

BBCNEWS had a piece about RAF patrols yesterday. They said they were doing more of them than usual and they were saying out for longer. They also explicitly said that as part of enabling this they were using inair fuelling (also useful to increase training on this, at a time of high alert for obvious reasons).

So thats probably a very reasonable explanation.

DH is ex-RAF, he said if you see a military plane flying what looks like a tight “race track” flight path (a sort of elongated oval shape) then it’s a tanker and they’re refuelling jets.

I also think that if ceasefire is agreed, the UN needs to go in to keep the peace because unless by some miracle the issues around Crimea and Donbas are agreed, they will continue to make the region unstable

Cease fire! are you for real?

Putin is going to carry on until he has "conquered" Ukraine or least the eastern half from Kyiv eastward.

He is too far embedded into this venture and we will soon have to decide whether to go to war with Russia or not.

@PeonyRose80

Genuine Question as vastly ignorant on parts of this ongoing war. But; Russia has this massive convoy of tanks (bbc news) if Russia basically come in all guns blazing and take Khiv, they declare victory and fly the Russian flag, government buildings now “Russian” - does everyone just say oh sorry Ukraine… or does NATO actually do something?

Thats the question no one wants to answer!

@DrBlackbird

continu my post wasn’t directed at you, it was directed at Alondra whose original post criticising Ukraine for damming the canal I found puzzling. It sounds like we are in agreement here.

No i am not in agreement with you at all, I am trying not to take sides here. However, I am against cutting off a water supply because of the affect it had on the people - if you google it there are reports. As ever it is normal people being affected and so no I do not think cutting off a water supply is acceptable.

The reluctance to use planes is the one thats bothering me most atm.

Why?

Thanks all. Is this part of the Uks contribution , and which country’s planes are being refuelled? Don’t they land for refuelling purposes usually? Glad of all the experts here.

A military man on BBC radio said either it is a continuation of poor Russian strategy, or perhaps the Russians are trying to encourage the Ukranians to bring to their drones out into the open so that they can shoot them down.

Both seemed pretty poor explanations tbh.

Thanks BigHuff I hadn’t heard that but I agree I’m not sure either of those explanations quite add up.

I’m still inclined to go with the goading angle at the moment (EU or NATO). I know very little about war strategy but that seems a huge convoy at nigh on 40miles long and to be 75% of Russian military vehicles if they want to take Ukraine. Ukraine have done a great job so far but that just seems completely over the top (even for propaganda purposes) and designed purely to provoke alarm/force someone’s hand. IMO.

@Alexandra2001

I also think that if ceasefire is agreed, the UN needs to go in to keep the peace because unless by some miracle the issues around Crimea and Donbas are agreed, they will continue to make the region unstable

Cease fire! are you for real?

Putin is going to carry on until he has "conquered" Ukraine or least the eastern half from Kyiv eastward.

He is too far embedded into this venture and we will soon have to decide whether to go to war with Russia or not.

I don't agree with you at all.

@Maze76

Why is it not a good comparison?

Christ almighty. I'm not being funny but which part of 'country with biggest landmass', 'country with the most nukes' 6th largest standing army (after Vietnam, North Korea, South Korea, China and India), 9th biggest country by size and G20 country are difficult to process compared with Iraq or Afghanistan?

No comparison.

@PeonyRose80

Genuine Question as vastly ignorant on parts of this ongoing war. But; Russia has this massive convoy of tanks (bbc news) if Russia basically come in all guns blazing and take Khiv, they declare victory and fly the Russian flag, government buildings now “Russian” - does everyone just say oh sorry Ukraine… or does NATO actually do something?

I believe it's an "oh, sorry". Probably western governments might covertly still offer what assistance they can to whatever resistance remains, and sanctions against Russia might continue. But no one is going to launch an attack on Russia.

Good analysis on Times Radio

Sanctions will be hurting a lot as money is key, but thinking is he’ll double down and go harder

Finding the Russian off ramp is difficult as war crimes have been committed

@yoolia

The reluctance to use planes is the one thats bothering me most atm.

Why?

Cos not going for air cover for your ground troops which are getting minced is not a particularly good strategic move.

It either means something is wrong or Russia has a problem.

Until we know its the latter for sure, I will continue to feel uneasy and be worried about when and how they might be engaged.

@continu

After the ceasefire (which will hopefully happen soon) I think some examination of how this has played out is necessary. The way the west has helped Ukraine in a humanitarian sense is of course excellent but the fact that press reports have referred to "these are white blue eyed europeans, these are europeans like us" raises issues and I really think we need to examine this to make sure there are not any prejudices, hypocrisy and double standards.

I think we need to start to see issues in a global sense and do more about it collectively across the board - illegal invasions are not acceptable anywhere (nb Russia is not the first country to do this, US and UK have done it too as just one example) human rights abuses are not acceptable anywhere the way we help Ukraine needs to set a standard which should be applied across the board, judgement of this invasion should set a standard which should be applied across the board.

I also think that if ceasefire is agreed, the UN needs to go in to keep the peace because unless by some miracle the issues around Crimea and Donbas are agreed, they will continue to make the region unstable. Ukraine has a chequered history and it is was before this war one of the most landmined countries in the world, yet many posters here think that this conflict was to do with the 2019 election.

I also think that sanctions do not prevent conflict and they cause normal people problems and create immense instability which makes future conflict more likely. The possibility of a run on Russian banks is reported - this is going to hit normal Russians who are not responsible for conflict the hardest. The same for normal UK people. Oligarchs may have lost 126 billion but millions of normal people will be affected more. Russia asked for ceasefire discussions because of pressure from their closest partners, not sanctions.

All this, absolutely, absolutely!

So the convoy is allegedly 40 miles long. It would take 2-3 days to walk its length. Arriving with a tanker at the back isn't going to help the tanks at the front. How do you distribute food and water along it, let alone fuel and munitions?

There can be no tactical reason why a convoy is sat out in the open, bunched together like this one is. If they were just waiting to attack or wanting to intimidate they'd be spread out tactically

They have low morale, presumably all comms are blocked, running out of food and water and are stting in the woods.

How does the artillery get within range of Kyiv other than being stuck in this convoy or having to go cross country? Those rocket launchers have a range of what, 26 miles and they've three left. How do you get them close enough without them being blown up by 10k+ anti tank?

How do you lay siege to Kyiv in the middle of one of the largest countries in Europe when you don't control any of the rest of the country? You'd just get picked off from behind.

The moment a plane starts indiscriminately bombing Kyiv will presumably be the moment this convoy is taken out.

I can't see how this convoy is anything more that a load of clueless, st scared, demotivated conscripts, with no leadership or clue what to do next? You just wouldn't sit there in a long line for any other reason?

It's that convoy that's under siege, not Kyiv.

Obviously I'm just armchairing so don't actually have a clue

This is some positive news?

Yes, why?

Because Putin no longer trusts NATO with a majority forces from the US and the risk to his country and resources. Has anyone bothered to really listen to what he has publicly said?

@Alondra

Yes, why?

Because Putin no longer trusts NATO with a majority forces from the US and the risk to his country and resources. Has anyone bothered to really listen to what he has publicly said?

Do you have sympathy with his views and think this invasion is justified?

Slack jawed at PP's comment that Wendi Deng is (allegedly) nobbing Putin. She also (allegedly) nobbed Blair. And (allegedly) some tech guys in Silicone Valley.

And was (definitely) married to Murdoch before he dumped her for all the allegedlies.

It's like a Bond film, but "Wendi Deng's a honey trap Chinese spy" makes as much sense as anything else.

So, I did a google, and Vanity Fair said exactly that in 2018. www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/01/wendi-deng-rubert-murdoch-chinese-spy-jared-kushner

Whaaaaaaat?