The invasion continues - Thread No.4

[ChimChimeny]

Following the previous (2? 3?) Threads

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4492641-The-Invasion-Has-Stalled

Ukraine need to take out that convoy. Take out the front and block the road.

It’s barely moved for 3 days but it has increased in size.

With the convoy, is it in an area where they cannot destroy? Just trying to think why they are allowing it to grow?

Anyone have any ideas as to why Ukraine is leaving it untouched?

There must be justification for it as they are leaving themselves sitting ducks surely?

@Greeceisthebest

I’ve been following the threads and learnt so much, so thank you. Admittedly I’m not particularly knowledgeable about this conflict.

My question is this.... Has Putin been planning a war with the EU for years and is this the reason why he engineered Brexit and Trump? But then China unleashed Covid which scuppered his plans. It feels far fetched, like a movie script.

But the oligarchs have invested a lot of money in the UK and many live here. There is strong evidence of Russian interference in both elections. The Johnson government has received Russian donations. There is evidence of close ties with Trump; Ivanka was photographed on holiday with oligarchs and Putin’s rumours girlfriend Wendi Deng (Murdoch’s Ex). And so on.

Does Putin want the US and UK to remain neutral while he restores the USSR? But then what about NATO?

I freely admit I don’t know enough about this, it seems crazy except nothing surprises these days!

Interesting also that Kyiv (Kievan Rus) was the seat of Slavic power 1,000 years ago and the Grand Prince of Kiev is known as Vladimir the Great in Russian and Volodymyr the Great in Ukraine. Ie. the Christian names of Putin and Zelensky, which is a spooky!

Has Putin been planning a war with the EU for years and is this the reason why he engineered Brexit and Trump? But then China unleashed Covid which scuppered his plans. It feels far fetched, like a movie script

Not with the EU. Much as it pains me because I'm European and believe in the EU project, Putin's chess game is not with the EU, it's with the US.

Putin finally made a decision most of us in the West found unpalatable - that the physical and economic survival of Russia is threatned by the failure of NATO and its allies to stop their eastward expansion after the Soviet union crumbled despite asssurances by several US and European presidents it will never happen.

For communication to happen both parts need to listen and understand where each other comes from - it's the old proverb "before you judge me walk a thousand miles in my shoes and if you still judge me, walk a thousand more".

US and NATO have been ticking the Bear by expanding into Eastern European countries, culminating with the outsting of the elected government in Ukraine in 2014 when Gorbachev had been given assurances it'll never happen. Putin has simply stopped believing what the US says.

Geopolitical and resources wars don't just happen because one country is the devil ( Putin) while the other is an angel (Biden or Trump).

I don't quite understand why you would have such a large convoy, and increasing daily, just sitting there for three days. Could it be a Putin ruse to encourage a shelling/attack of some sort and be played out to his people as an act of aggression/war?

@DrBlackbird

after the anexation by Russia. Ukraine cut the water canal supply

? It’s still not clear why you think Crimea’s water supply is Ukraine’s problem given that it’s no longer part of Ukraine.

With two friendly countries, cutting off a water supply would be an act of aggression. Ukraine cut it off becaue crimea was annexed - whether you think this is reasonable or not is another question, I am just explaining the situation.

@HaudYerWheeshtYaWeeBellend

With the convoy, is it in an area where they cannot destroy? Just trying to think why they are allowing it to grow?

Anyone have any ideas as to why Ukraine is leaving it untouched?

There must be justification for it as they are leaving themselves sitting ducks surely?

Presumably Russia has sufficient air cover to protect it.

According to the BBC around 75% of Russian armed forces are now in Ukraine. If this is true then this will quickly turn into a huge logistical nightmare for Russia to maintain this size of force in the field.

This war has not so far gone the way Putin intended. Their tactics and hardware have not proved to be as effective as expected. Now they are having to bring in huge numbers of personnel to achieve objectives.

Sadly I think that might will prevail in the sense that Russia will get to put a flag on the top of the main government building. However that will be winning a battle not a war. Winning Ukraine is going to be costly to Russia. Keeping Ukraine will cost far more.

But if the stories about Putin's health are true I dont think he cares. He wants the initial victory as his legacy.

Thank you to everyone contributing here. Before I get totally obsessed with watching planes on flight radar, could anyone hazard a guess about the large plane circling around in Romania having set out from mIldenhall earlier...no destination?

[quote TulipsGarden]@CallyfromBlakes7 It's widely thought that Putin is unwell, possibly very seriously. His face has changed a lot in the last few years and apparently has a look of someone taking strong steroids.[/quote]
He does look like he may have 'moon' face which can be caused by long term use of corticosteroids. Equally it could be bad cosmetic work.

It’ll be Russian air defenses that are the problem..

Geopolitical and resources wars don't just happen because one country is the devil ( Putin) while the other is an angel (Biden or Trump).

Before someone jumps in to say Russian bot to this - it is true. It is not black and white. The UK was quite happy to go along with laundering Russian money and pandering to Russian oligarchs. None of this means to say that we are happy with what Putin is doing in Ukraine. Although it's worth reminding people that we have been fighting proxy wars in Yemen and no one gave a stuff about that or so it seems.

It’s probably a refuelling plane for NATO aircraft, @Monitaurus.

With regards to the convoy, could it be that Putin is sort of taunting Ukraine/NATO? He leaves them there like sitting ducks, I’m not sure if Ukraine are capable of taking them out but if they do he can use that as justification for going all out by claiming that they killed a lot of soldiers who were not in combat or were there for peace keeping. Could it be that he is provoking NATO to get involved and take the convoy out and thus giving him a justification I’m his mind. The convoy is an easy target, almost too easy and you know the saying …

@Monitaurus

Thank you to everyone contributing here. Before I get totally obsessed with watching planes on flight radar, could anyone hazard a guess about the large plane circling around in Romania having set out from mIldenhall earlier...no destination?

If it’s the KC-10 near Brasov it’s a tanker.

I have so much work to do, and I just keep thinking what's the point? What's the point of carrying on with normal life when this shit is going down? Covid feels like nothing now.

@Alwaysconfuddled

With regards to the convoy, could it be that Putin is sort of taunting Ukraine/NATO? He leaves them there like sitting ducks, I’m not sure if Ukraine are capable of taking them out but if they do he can use that as justification for going all out by claiming that they killed a lot of soldiers who were not in combat or were there for peace keeping. Could it be that he is provoking NATO to get involved and take the convoy out and thus giving him a justification I’m his mind. The convoy is an easy target, almost too easy and you know the saying …

The Russians/Soviets before them had a doctrine of having organic air defence- mobile surface to air missile launchers and v accurate anti aircraft guns that would move within large columns of vehicles/armour.

The Russians haven’t looked to organized so far but if they have finally got a grip that column of lorries etc will be very well protected from air strike.

@StormzyinaTCup

I don't quite understand why you would have such a large convoy, and increasing daily, just sitting there for three days. Could it be a Putin ruse to encourage a shelling/attack of some sort and be played out to his people as an act of aggression/war?

A military man on BBC radio said either it is a continuation of poor Russian strategy, or perhaps the Russians are trying to encourage the Ukranians to bring to their drones out into the open so that they can shoot them down.

Both seemed pretty poor explanations tbh.

With two friendly countries, cutting off a water supply would be an act of aggression. Ukraine cut it off becaue crimea was annexed - whether you think this is reasonable or not is another question, I am just explaining the situation

Not only an act of agression to a territory Ukraine still claims as their own, but an act of war considering the atrocities the Azov batalion committed in the Donbass with the support of the actual Ukraine government.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azov_Battalion

@Monitaurus

Thank you to everyone contributing here. Before I get totally obsessed with watching planes on flight radar, could anyone hazard a guess about the large plane circling around in Romania having set out from mIldenhall earlier...no destination?

I have no idea what you are looking at but this war is still very much self contained to Ukrania.

It's easy to panic and become obssessed if all you are watching is news channels - switch them off and watch a rerun of your favourite series.

Propanganda thrives on panic.

continu my post wasn’t directed at you, it was directed at Alondra whose original post criticising Ukraine for damming the canal I found puzzling. It sounds like we are in agreement here.

Why didn't he just keep the troops in the two separatist regions?

@Whelmed

Why didn't he just keep the troops in the two separatist regions?

Yes, why?

On a more positive note, i think this is worth thinking about:

What have we learnt in 5 days about the state of the Russian army?

Rife corruption and underfunding has seriously hampered it. Logistics are none existent, equipment is old, rations are 7 year out of date (if they have any), very few trained soliders with combat experience, a curious lack of air cover (which has been suggested that is linked with too few training hours and a relectuance to show up lack of capability), significant levels of distrust in the state, high levels of poor moral, rumours of a lack of munitions and run down stockpiles, lack of ability to manufacture replacements, army rosters filled with 'ghost' soliders...

If this is all true I think you also have other questions.

If Russia is that corrupt then what has happened to all the money earmarked for nuclear weapons and maintenance of launch systems? Keeping in mind, the mindset in recent years that the West would potentially bottle it. Are the numbers on paper reflective of the actual number. Are they properly maintained? Are launch systems properly trained? Are staff properly trained?

I read an article yesterday into Russian nuclear capability from an American. Ive been trying to find it since but can't for the life of me and its really bugging me. This exoert said he regularly gets requests from press on this, so he was doing a thread.

He said that both NATO and Russian generals took the threat of mutually assured destruction so seriously, they that were regularly in direct contact with each other.

This gives a very different type of picture to one where we are about to all die.

Obviously you have a bunch of russian subs out there, with little contact with the world and we know theres a huge number of nukes so you still have to take the threat very seriously as even one would be a disaster.

But we also have had apparent close calls - where orders seem to have been given but checks were made rather than immediate launch. And thats the stuff we know about.

Maybe thats far too optimistic. But I do also think there some valid questions to be asked here...

The reluctance to use planes is the one thats bothering me most atm.

@GnomeDePlume

According to the BBC around 75% of Russian armed forces are now in Ukraine. If this is true then this will quickly turn into a huge logistical nightmare for Russia to maintain this size of force in the field.

This war has not so far gone the way Putin intended. Their tactics and hardware have not proved to be as effective as expected. Now they are having to bring in huge numbers of personnel to achieve objectives.

Sadly I think that might will prevail in the sense that Russia will get to put a flag on the top of the main government building. However that will be winning a battle not a war. Winning Ukraine is going to be costly to Russia. Keeping Ukraine will cost far more.

But if the stories about Putin's health are true I dont think he cares. He wants the initial victory as his legacy.

I think the 75% figure is of the Russian forces that were massed around Ukraine rather than 75% of all Russian forces.

Nonetheless I agree with the rest of your post. I wonder how many of the vehicles in the 40mile column have now broken down.

After the ceasefire (which will hopefully happen soon) I think some examination of how this has played out is necessary. The way the west has helped Ukraine in a humanitarian sense is of course excellent but the fact that press reports have referred to "these are white blue eyed europeans, these are europeans like us" raises issues and I really think we need to examine this to make sure there are not any prejudices, hypocrisy and double standards.

I think we need to start to see issues in a global sense and do more about it collectively across the board - illegal invasions are not acceptable anywhere (nb Russia is not the first country to do this, US and UK have done it too as just one example) human rights abuses are not acceptable anywhere the way we help Ukraine needs to set a standard which should be applied across the board, judgement of this invasion should set a standard which should be applied across the board.

I also think that if ceasefire is agreed, the UN needs to go in to keep the peace because unless by some miracle the issues around Crimea and Donbas are agreed, they will continue to make the region unstable. Ukraine has a chequered history and it is was before this war one of the most landmined countries in the world, yet many posters here think that this conflict was to do with the 2019 election.

I also think that sanctions do not prevent conflict and they cause normal people problems and create immense instability which makes future conflict more likely. The possibility of a run on Russian banks is reported - this is going to hit normal Russians who are not responsible for conflict the hardest. The same for normal UK people. Oligarchs may have lost 126 billion but millions of normal people will be affected more. Russia asked for ceasefire discussions because of pressure from their closest partners, not sanctions.