The invasion continues - Thread No.4

[ChimChimeny]

Following the previous (2? 3?) Threads

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4492641-The-Invasion-Has-Stalled

@hannsmum

Feeling a bit uneasy about what sky news is reporting regarding volunteers who are mostly ex-servicemen or military trained going to join the fight ?

news.sky.com/story/amp/ukraine-invasion-britons-willing-to-die-to-defeat-putins-army-as-volunteers-prepare-to-travel-to-fight-russian-invasion-12554220

I know Britain isn't directly sending troops in BUT won't this trigger P.. ?

This is referring to what he said about retaliating if there is any interference?

The guy is a d.. head and can just about use any excuse to attack other countries?

The problem is you will never stop people joining in a year if that’s what they want to do

Liz Truss is the issue here, should have kept her mouth firmly shut. I am hoping ( probably vainly ) that Boris will replace her. She is not what we need in this situation

*Except around 15-20% of Ukrainian nationals are ethnically Russian and probably do want to be liberated, especially since they've undergone years of persecution by a both a Western-backed government and neo-Nazi militias, had their homes bombed out and loved ones killed.

That doesn't justify a Russian invasion. But the US and UK have invaded countries on much lesser pretexts.

It's complicated*

I disagree. It's not complicated at all.

It's absolutely unacceptable to invade a democratic country.

Understanding the Russian perspective is important as is the historical context, but nothing makes this right even if 20% of the population "probably" support Russia (something I've found difficult to verify given that ethnicity and support for Putin are not exclusive relationships).

Russia is the worlds largest country by a considerable margin and the idea they need more land mass to consolidate their security is frankly ridiculous.

Putin wants Ukraine because he believes it's rightfully "his" regardless of the views of the people.

He's a bully steeped in values and an ideology that's decades (centuries) out of date.

Does that mean the West hadn't made mistakes? Hell no but it's not a reason to denounce what's happening in Ukraine and call it what it is. An invasion by a megalomaniac dictator.

Are where is the Russian airforce?

My guess is that they're trying to preserve infrastructure and avoid atrocities such as bombed hospitals, schools, wedding parties, etc. This will make governance easier once the country is fully in Russian hands, and make reprisals less likely. I think perhaps they want to make of boast of the fact they don't do things the American way (ie. spend a fortnight razing a country to the ground before sending in ground troops).

It's absolutely unacceptable to invade a democratic country.

Understanding the Russian perspective is important as is the historical context, but nothing makes this right even if 20% of the population "probably" support Russia.

You're creating a strawman argument. No one on this thread disagrees with these statements, as far as I can tell.

@Rocaille

Are where is the Russian airforce?

My guess is that they're trying to preserve infrastructure and avoid atrocities such as bombed hospitals, schools, wedding parties, etc. This will make governance easier once the country is fully in Russian hands, and make reprisals less likely. I think perhaps they want to make of boast of the fact they don't do things the American way (ie. spend a fortnight razing a country to the ground before sending in ground troops).

How very considerate of them

20% of the population "probably" support Russia (something I've found difficult to verify given that ethnicity and support for Putin are not exclusive relationships).

The referendum result will give you an indication. Although, of course, opinions do change over time.

@RedToothBrush

The 17 miles of Russian troops lined up ready to go towards Kyiv is now 40 miles according to reports.

I have a certain sense of dread at that.

Plus what are they waiting for? Are where is the Russian airforce? Its bizarre.

I have wondered about the airforce too. It is indeed bizarre. There is a tiny part of me that hopes Putin will be satisfied (or hope to satisfy the Russian people, in his mind) with an ultimate May Day parade towards Kyiv, a show of might. For the sake of Ukraine, I hope so, although I feel I'm being naive in even entertaining the thought

@Rocaille

It's absolutely unacceptable to invade a democratic country.

Understanding the Russian perspective is important as is the historical context, but nothing makes this right even if 20% of the population "probably" support Russia.

You're creating a strawman argument. No one on this thread disagrees with these statements, as far as I can tell.

But posters are using the "straw man" to explain justify Putin's actions.

Again, it's not complicated.

The history may be, but the actions are totally uncomplicated in their utter inhumanity.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum

Russia is the worlds largest country by a considerable margin and the idea they need more land mass to consolidate their security is frankly ridiculous.

They don't need more land mass. They'll probably install a pro-Russia regime and then scarper back home at the earliest opportunity. I can see them wanting to occupy Ukraine for any longer than necessary.

The objective of the campaign is not to acquire more land, it is to prevent NATO expansion into Ukraine. They've already achieved that, as there's absolutely no way NATO will sign Ukraine up after this disturbing episode.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum

I actually meant the Donbas ones, thanks though.

Anyway, bed now. Night all.

Except around 15-20% of Ukrainian nationals are ethnically Russian and probably do want to be liberated,

Hmm.

As you say it is complicated. Seeing oneself as Russian or Ukrainian in Ukraine and speaking Russian or Ukrainian as a first language are not the same, though of course there is a considerable overlap.

The videos of Russian troops being harangued in Russian by those who do not want to be 'liberated' surely get noticed? Back in 2014 at least over half the members of the damned Azov Battalion were Russian speakers. As Ukrainian service deaths are posted online some are flagged as being Russian speakers.

Do some Ukrainian Russians want to be part of a Greater Russia? No doubt. The prominent refugees from Russia certainly don't. In my mother's family some of the old ones especially still live in a good old bad old days romanticised Soviet mist. The younger ones don't and just want to get on with life in Ukraine.

The 2019 Rada election gives an idea of Russophiliac support in Ukraine (but not in the then occupied areas). For Life / Opposition Platform got 13% of the list vote. Some of their leaders (and no doubt some of their voters) are ethnic Ukrainian though to further complicate things.

To underline the complicated nature of things, the 2001 census saw 17% of the population state that they were ethnic Russian. 4% of the ethnic Russians recorded that they could NOT speak Russian.

The tea leaves are really hard to read and the current war will no doubt have changed some allegiances.

@Rocaille

20% of the population "probably" support Russia (something I've found difficult to verify given that ethnicity and support for Putin are not exclusive relationships).

The referendum result will give you an indication. Although, of course, opinions do change over time.

It might be helpful if you were to specify the referendum that you have in mind and possibly link to it so that interested people might understand specifics.

The 40 mile convoy is chilling although it alleviates some of the supply issues they've (the Russians) clearly been having.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Donbas_status_referendums

Sorry not sure if this has been posted, but I’ve just seen this:

www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putins-black-belt-revoked-international-taekwondo-organization-1683304?amp=1

@Rocaille

Are where is the Russian airforce?

My guess is that they're trying to preserve infrastructure and avoid atrocities such as bombed hospitals, schools, wedding parties, etc. This will make governance easier once the country is fully in Russian hands, and make reprisals less likely. I think perhaps they want to make of boast of the fact they don't do things the American way (ie. spend a fortnight razing a country to the ground before sending in ground troops).

Well they’re making a bit of a hash of that then, given that they’ve already bombed an oil depot, a gas pipeline, airports, factories, a hospital (killing at least one child), schools, a kindergarten, multiple residential buildings and a shopping centre, as well as allegedly using a thermobaric bomb near civilians.

www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/27/russia-ukraine-oil-gas-fuel-airport-attacks

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-war-vaccuum-bomb-thermobaric-b2025344.html?amp

@RedToothBrush

The 17 miles of Russian troops lined up ready to go towards Kyiv is now 40 miles according to reports.

I have a certain sense of dread at that.

Plus what are they waiting for? Are where is the Russian airforce? Its bizarre.

Waiting to achieve battlefield supremacy, sufficient infantry support to be in place or someone to open the petrol station...

I'm surprised nobody has hit what is a very juicy target, with drones being most likely as a means to preserve aircraft and pilots. A good job would see a modern day Falaise (which destroyed German forces in Normandy)

Referendums:

1991 independence, rounded %s. Yes 92, No 8

Outside of that, of ballot papers issued, return and checked, about 2% were spoiled / blank and therefore not included.

Crimea / Sevastopol / part Luhansk / part Donetsk referendums: supposed figures exist but they were illegal.

judging by the huge refueling planes up in the air (always about 3 on the go at all times) i suspect there are tons of allied planes preventing russian ones from being in that airspace.
remember that military planes don't need to have their transponders on so not necessarily seen on flight radar sites.

LAGR222 currently over romania large oval pattern, usa super fuel tanker certainly not "hanging around" for the fun of burning fuel.
it's refueling someone.

@RedToothBrush

The 17 miles of Russian troops lined up ready to go towards Kyiv is now 40 miles according to reports.

I have a certain sense of dread at that.

Plus what are they waiting for? Are where is the Russian airforce? Its bizarre.

You are not alone in wondering where the VKS (Russian Air Force) have got to. This is the RUSI view:

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

I know that you are in the middle of deep historical/political debates but did you see the action taken by the IIHF (international Ice Hockey federation)?
IIHF announcement here

In summary:
They have banned Russia and Belarus from a number tournaments (a total of 6 listed as being affected), and stripped Russia from hosting the 2023 World Junior championship.

It talks in the notice that Russia breached the "Olympic Truce" I had to do a bit of googling and came up with this article from cbs sports which explain the truce and the reasons how Russia had breached it.

It was interesting to see that they were making decisions so far out, especially as the tournament that has been stripped from Russia holding was not due to be played until 26th Dec '22 to 5th Jan '23

@Rocaille

Are where is the Russian airforce?

My guess is that they're trying to preserve infrastructure and avoid atrocities such as bombed hospitals, schools, wedding parties, etc. This will make governance easier once the country is fully in Russian hands, and make reprisals less likely. I think perhaps they want to make of boast of the fact they don't do things the American way (ie. spend a fortnight razing a country to the ground before sending in ground troops).

“Fully in Russia’s hands” - surely it’s obvious that’s not what the majority of Ukraine want.

And they don’t seem to have avoided schools, hospitals or residential apartment blocks today.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4493443-The-invasion-continues-Thread-No-4