The invasion continues - Thread No.4

[ChimChimeny]

Following the previous (2? 3?) Threads

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4492641-The-Invasion-Has-Stalled

You're welcome @notimagain

This is another good analysis I think, trying to figure out why the hell Russia isn't using its air force

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

@Jadebanditchillipepper

Thank you for this thread - it's all really interesting.

What I am having trouble understanding is why Russia have to agree to Ukraine joining NATO and /or the EU and dictating that they can't have nuclear weapons (when Russia seems to have enough to nuke the entire planet). I though Ukraine was an independent country with it's own Government?

I mean, I know Putin doesn't see it that way, but I can't comprehend how he thinks he can dictate what international organisations Ukraine are part of. Please can someone explain?

And why have Europe and NATO allowed him to get away with all the shit he's done over the last few years? Surely letting him do what he likes has made him more dangerous?

When the USSR collapsed, an agreement was made to define the boundaries of NATO. NATO guaranteed that it would not accept any members directly bordering Russia. In the last couple of years NATO announced they were considering admitting Ukraine and Zelensky indicated they would consider building up nuclear capability.

If you look up Cuban Missile crisis, it will give you an idea on how the US reacted, when USSR tried to establish a military base in Cuba.

@letmesleep123
Yes, all so complex and as you say, leading to terrible things on all sides.
I suppose there was less publicity in the West re 2014 because it was less likely to affect the West on its own doorstep. You can’t constantly care about every war in another country - unless the trouble is likely to come knocking on your own door, as it now might.
Not meaning to sound harsh, just pragmatic. To an impartial third party, the lives of your friends and family were and are every bit as important.
& I hope it’s not our turn soon.

@BeyondPurpleTulips

I just read (it was an American news source, WP maybe? Lost the link now) speculation that they have used all of the crappy equipment for the first wave, so it doesn't matter if it gets blown up by local resistance. They may then save their bigger fancy weapons for some "later" unspecified time. I can't think why, but it seems plausible at least

It is thought that the Soviets (that dates me) may have considered to use a system along those lines but the clever tank reccie people commenting on what they are seeing are this saying there is some seriously modern armour being knocked out, not decades old stuff.

What in particular has got them scratching their heads is the footage we were seeing a few days back of isolated armoured vehicles operating in built up areas without infantry and as a result being picked off it would appear fairly easily by Ukrainian forces with anti-tank weapons - it does seem to fit with the hypothesis that initially the Russian troops thought they were just rolling in on a peacekeeping operation and wouldn’t face armed opposition.

@letmesleep123, thanks for adding your perspective. I had no idea about the Azov Brigade. That's awful.

[quote katem98]@RedToothBrush Please do spell it out🙈[/quote]
I might be wrong but the way I understood it is this would be significant because it would be having these fighter jets take off from Poland which is NATO territory. I don't think it's confirmed though.

Notimagain

Thanks for all that Information

Yes re planes from Poland.
That maybe an error as so far getting arms to Ukraine has been discreet.

@RedToothBrush

Alec Luhn *@ASLuhn* Bulgaria will give Ukraine 14 Su-25 & 16 MiG-29 fighter jets, Poland will give it 28 MiG-29s & Slovakia will give it 12 MiG-29s. More importantlygiven Russian missile strikes on military airbasesthey can fly missions over Ukraine from Poland

Seeing this reported by several sources now.

Not going to spell out how this is significant...

Rumours (on twitter, unverified) are that Ukranian pilots are already flying Polish planes.

[quote Wannago]**@CPL593H The whole issue and the longstanding speculation about Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and his relationship with Putin/the Kremlin is to say the least interesting, but I don't want to derail.

Please, just a brief summary - it seems highly relevant to me.

While I get your point about Eastern Catholics, I presume Putin wouldn't care, he would presumably consider them irrelevant. But given the background that this article gave, which I knew nothing about, about the importance of Kyiv, and then the idea that it is, in Putin's eyes, in the hands of renegades - well doesn't that make it something of a crusade for him as well - "retaking the holy city". So wouldn't his relationship with Patriarch Krill possibly be highly relevant.[/quote]
www.ft.com/content/a41ed014-c38b-11e9-a8e9-296ca66511c9

Good piece by Max Seddon in the FT which I think you might find useful on the background to the schism. There is a great deal of rumour about the favour Putin has shown the Church for its support and in particular Patriarch Kirill. It is undoubted that the Church in Russia has been centred in a way that it had not been previously for a century. While this was (understandably, really) greeted with delight after the Soviet era, there were warning voices about the autonomy of the Church being paramount in a new and uncertain time.

Debates in Orthodoxy are not known for their temperance of language and it is possible to get mired in that, but in simple terms, there is a great deal of money sloshing about from tobacco importation rights granted to the Patriarchate in the 90s. There have also been concerns about Kirill's personal wealth and mode of life, including the fact a Breguet watch (£20K) was airbrushed from his wrist in a photo taken in 2012. This is important because he is a monk.

In respect of what Putin actually believes, search me. It takes much more than a few lavish dinners for Kirill's birthday and venerating icons to make someone truly Christian or truly Orthodox. If he has genuinely gone down the rabbit hole of some sort of holy quest around Kyiv/the Ukraine, he is very unstable indeed, IMHO.

@MissConductUS

The most disturbing thing I've heard today is that the Russians are using cluster bombs in civilian areas. These are large bombs or missiles that spread hundreds of small bomblets over a wide area, killing anyone in that area.

A military analyst was on the news the other night saying that the Russians would soon run out of precision-guided weapons and have to resort to older, more lethal and indiscriminate weapons like this.

If Putin lays siege to the cities and kills thousands of civilians in the process I wonder how that will escalate the response.

In the time of the Soviet Union, the Politbureau had ultimate control and likely would have ousted Putin by now. It's hard to imagine that those were the good old days.

They have been using vietnam-era FAB-500 bombs today. Unguided bombs dating from the 1950's. This from a respected polish historian I know. He describes them as shit and a good sign that they've had to resort to stockpiled obsolete stuff so soon. Granted, they still kill.

[quote Thereisnolight]@letmesleep123
Yes, all so complex and as you say, leading to terrible things on all sides.
I suppose there was less publicity in the West re 2014 because it was less likely to affect the West on its own doorstep. You can’t constantly care about every war in another country - unless the trouble is likely to come knocking on your own door, as it now might.
Not meaning to sound harsh, just pragmatic. To an impartial third party, the lives of your friends and family were and are every bit as important.
& I hope it’s not our turn soon.[/quote]
There have been a number of items posted upthread and on previous threads that give decent overviews of the lengthy complex history that is the background to current events.

E.g., BoreOfWhabylon posted a Portillo interview that covers why Putin believes Ukraine is part of Russia. The original Rus People (Vikings!) settled in Kyiv and before Russia.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4493443-The-invasion-continues-Thread-No-4?msgid=115492588

The threads have many decent explainers.

NATO guaranteed that it would not accept any members directly bordering Russia.

This is not true. It is a major part of the Kremlin narrative but it's not true.

In 1990 the US/UK/France made an agreement with Russia that would allow a reunified Germany into NATO on the condition that NATO Forces would not be stationed in the former East Germany. That is the only official agreement.

Russians later claimed there was a handshake kind of deal that NATO would not expand eastward. The US and Gorbachev himself dispute this. In any event that deal would have been with the USSR which ceased to exist the following year.

That's shaky ground though, coveting - if sending arms is dodgy enough in putin's eyes, taking off from NATO territory is definitely further along that scale. Especially given the foreign legion on there way from NATO territory too.

It's this kind of... technicality use by us that makes me wary of what technicalities will be used by Putin. Ie the tactical nuclear option.

I might be wrong but the way I understood it is this would be significant because it would be having these fighter jets take off from Poland which is NATO territory. I don't think it's confirmed though.

That was my understanding as well. It's one thing giving them planes but a big "poke to the bear" to allow NATO territory to be used as an operational base.

I looked at the source for this and translated it ukraine.segodnya.ua/amp-ukraine/evropa-peredast-ukraine-70-istrebiteley-mig-29-i-su-25-dlya-aviaudarov-po-agressoru-1605977.html

"Ukrainian pilots have already arrived in Poland for MiG-29 fighters. Our military will also receive missiles.
This was reported by People's Deputy of Ukraine Galina Tretyakova on Facebook.
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"Our pilots already receive MiG-29 fighters and missiles in Poland," Tretyakova wrote.
People's Deputy Alexei Goncharenko wrote on Telegram that the Ukrainian army will receive another 70 aircraft.
"Our partners are giving us the Mig-29 and Su-25! If necessary, they will be able to be based at Polish airfields, from which Ukrainian pilots will perform combat missions," Goncharenko said.
Advertisement
Who will help:
Bulgaria (Mig-29) - 16 pcs;
Bulgaria (Su-25) - 14 pcs;
Poland (Mig-29) - 28 pcs;
Slovakia (Mig-29) - 12 pcs.
"If one "Ghost of Kiev" has already shot down 14 enemies, can you imagine what a team of 70 such will do to the enemy army? Friends, the victory itself asks for us!" Goncharenko added."

@MissConductUS

The most disturbing thing I've heard today is that the Russians are using cluster bombs in civilian areas. These are large bombs or missiles that spread hundreds of small bomblets over a wide area, killing anyone in that area.

A military analyst was on the news the other night saying that the Russians would soon run out of precision-guided weapons and have to resort to older, more lethal and indiscriminate weapons like this.

If Putin lays siege to the cities and kills thousands of civilians in the process I wonder how that will escalate the response.

In the time of the Soviet Union, the Politbureau had ultimate control and likely would have ousted Putin by now. It's hard to imagine that those were the good old days.

They have been using vietnam-era FAB-500 bombs today. Unguided bombs dating from the 1950's. This from a respected polish historian I know. He describes them as shit and a good sign that they've had to resort to stockpiled obsolete stuff so soon. Granted, they still kill.

Retired General Sir Richards Barrons on Newsnight - Joint Command.

IF Russia uses its heavy weapons, we will witness 10s of '000 of civilians being killed and the discussion will move to controlling the air space & removing these weapons or do we sit back and do nothing?

He was told "But this will mean war with Russia" his answer was that this is the choice we will have to make.

Scary times.

@dreamingbohemian

NATO guaranteed that it would not accept any members directly bordering Russia.

This is not true. It is a major part of the Kremlin narrative but it's not true.

In 1990 the US/UK/France made an agreement with Russia that would allow a reunified Germany into NATO on the condition that NATO Forces would not be stationed in the former East Germany. That is the only official agreement.

Russians later claimed there was a handshake kind of deal that NATO would not expand eastward. The US and Gorbachev himself dispute this. In any event that deal would have been with the USSR which ceased to exist the following year.

This is nitpicking and semantics overriding the spirit of the agreement at the time.

If you look up Cuban Missile crisis, it will give you an idea on how the US reacted, when USSR tried to establish a military base in Cuba.

It wasn't quite as simple as we were led to believe though: the USA had missiles based in Turkey pointing towards the USSR. There was a mutual agreement to pull back on both sides, but needless to say, this wasn't the story we were told in the UK/USA at the time. I only found out myself within the last ten years, and I lived through the Cuban missile crisis.

what is 11100169 over on flight radar? Doing a straight line out of Mielec with a perfect hexagon at each end. Some sort of unmanned drone?

BBC are reporting now that a thermobaric weapon has been used, but say that this is not yet verified. They don't say where.

[quote MissConductUS]@letmesleep123, thanks for adding your perspective. I had no idea about the Azov Brigade. That's awful.[/quote]
Thank you for this thread actually trying to be informative :-).

Some more gruesome thoughts from my side. I am going against the grain again, but Zelensky is, in my view, the worst person for the job right now. He is extremely presentable and knows how to run a media campaign (acting was his job after all!), but he has 0 experience of being a politician. giving out firearms to citizens should have only been done if there was a plan to organise them in some sort of way and integrate them into the military.

What is happening now is that even if Russia withdraw the troops tomorrow, you have a fully armed population with conflicting views. You now have groups of people shooting each other internally, without any army involved.
Zelensky released prisoners. Yes, they have access to firearms too...
The worst thing of all is that you have refugees with all their possessions trying to escape (many carry cash) and then you have gangs forming, heavily armed. People are being robbed at gunpoint left right and center.

And don't get me started on the priority for Ukrainians leaving the country and hundreds of foreign students being bumped to the back of the que. The racism has always been ripe in Eastern Europe, but you somehow hope that in time of need people would see each other as equals.

@BeyondPurpleTulips

BBC are reporting now that a thermobaric weapon has been used, but say that this is not yet verified. They don't say where.

So could he be tried for war crime? They're prohibited weapons aren't they?

I did see on the news tonight footage of some foreign male students getting very angry because women with young children were being put on trains ahead of them.
Are there examples of foreign mothers with young children being denied places in the queue?

@letmesleep123 thank you for your fascinating input, it's really helps to round out this in-depth series of threads.