The invasion continues - Thread No.4

[ChimChimeny]

Following the previous (2? 3?) Threads

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4492641-The-Invasion-Has-Stalled

[quote Icebear99]**@Queenoftheduvan* and @Roundeartheratchriatmas* - The Typhoon seems to be flying very close to the border with the Ukraine, it briefly got up to 785mph which will have caused a sonic boom, I wonder if this is to try to spook them?[/quote]
That’s what I’m thinking,just wanting to let them know they are there….deterrent worthy

Netflix have refused to add state run channels.

Russians not being able to exhibit dogs at Crufts-
I bet Putin really cares about that!

I mean, what else can the Kennel Club do? Their business is fancy dogs, not military grade weapons!

Well done Kennel Club!

Presented without comment...

people.com/human-interest/onlyfans-restores-russian-creators-accounts-after-they-were-locked-out-amid-war-in-ukraine/

As ever Simon Jenkin's sober reflective words point a way forward.

"Is Ukraine – and Russia – to wait that long for Putin to die or fall off his perch? Realpolitik says that somehow Putin must be induced to withdraw his armies and admit that his “buffer-zone” strategy has failed. Mediation must find some form of words to cover his retreat, however painful those words may be for some to swallow. Ukraine and Russia must live as neighbours once more, as geography has required them to do throughout history. The alternative is for Kyiv to suffer years of occupation and puppet government, until liberal voices within Russia persuade whoever occupies the Kremlin to relent.

Those voices are what everyone – Ukraine, Russia and the rest of Europe – most desperately need just now. They will require not ostracism and hostility from the west but contact, friendship and encouragement. Someday, preferably soon, the signalling has to stop and serious diplomacy resume."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/sanctions-dont-work-diplomacy-stop-putin-russia-ukraine

The most disturbing thing I've heard today is that the Russians are using cluster bombs in civilian areas. These are large bombs or missiles that spread hundreds of small bomblets over a wide area, killing anyone in that area.

A military analyst was on the news the other night saying that the Russians would soon run out of precision-guided weapons and have to resort to older, more lethal and indiscriminate weapons like this.

If Putin lays siege to the cities and kills thousands of civilians in the process I wonder how that will escalate the response.

In the time of the Soviet Union, the Politbureau had ultimate control and likely would have ousted Putin by now. It's hard to imagine that those were the good old days.

@BeyondPurpleTulips

Unless they were actually planning on walking/driving in to Lithuania/Poland? But that would be beyond stupid. In the event of any actual invasion of the Baltics, surely it would be from the "motherland"?

Can Russia fly planes over the Baltic (e.g. from St Petersburg to Kaliningrad), or does that airspace belong to someone? I assume they can?

[quote vera99]As ever Simon Jenkin's sober reflective words point a way forward.

"Is Ukraine – and Russia – to wait that long for Putin to die or fall off his perch? Realpolitik says that somehow Putin must be induced to withdraw his armies and admit that his “buffer-zone” strategy has failed. Mediation must find some form of words to cover his retreat, however painful those words may be for some to swallow. Ukraine and Russia must live as neighbours once more, as geography has required them to do throughout history. The alternative is for Kyiv to suffer years of occupation and puppet government, until liberal voices within Russia persuade whoever occupies the Kremlin to relent.

Those voices are what everyone – Ukraine, Russia and the rest of Europe – most desperately need just now. They will require not ostracism and hostility from the west but contact, friendship and encouragement. Someday, preferably soon, the signalling has to stop and serious diplomacy resume."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/sanctions-dont-work-diplomacy-stop-putin-russia-ukraine[/quote]
Very sensible.

@Jadebanditchillipepper

Thank you for this thread - it's all really interesting.

What I am having trouble understanding is why Russia have to agree to Ukraine joining NATO and /or the EU and dictating that they can't have nuclear weapons (when Russia seems to have enough to nuke the entire planet). I though Ukraine was an independent country with it's own Government?

I mean, I know Putin doesn't see it that way, but I can't comprehend how he thinks he can dictate what international organisations Ukraine are part of. Please can someone explain?

And why have Europe and NATO allowed him to get away with all the shit he's done over the last few years? Surely letting him do what he likes has made him more dangerous?

Well this is exactly the right question! Why can't Ukraine just do what it wants?

There has been a debate about this since the Soviet Union broke up. On the one hand, you have Russia, and various Western politicians and academics, who argue that Russia should be able to keep its 'sphere of influence' in Eastern Europe. That even though all these countries are officially independent, it's Russia's zone and we shouldn't try to upset Russia too much. Classic realpolitik. Some people have been mentioning John Mearsheimer, he is the foremost proponent of this.

On the other hand the official policy of the EU and US has always been that countries should be able to choose what they want to do. Of course it's easy for them to say this because most of Eastern Europe has been wanting to join EU/NATO.

The whole reason this war started in 2013-14 was because Russia wanted to make sure that Ukraine didn't integrate any more with the West. That invasion backfired and Ukraine has been becoming more West-leaning, until now we're at the point where Putin felt he had to invade again.

Some videos of peace protest in Berdyansk which has been taken by Russian forces

twitter.com/michaeldweiss/status/1498390782377701381
Michael Weiss 🌻@michaeldweiss
Video here of Ukrainians in Berdyansk opposing Russian occupation.

twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1498323834268577793
Alec Luhn @ASLuhn
"Putin is a dickhead! Putin is a dickhead!" Ukrainians in Berdyansk are reportedly chanting slogans against the Russian troops that took the city last night

"Go home!" Ukrainians chant at Russian soldiers at the city council building in Berdyansk

Despite the valiant efforts by the "Putin is a dickhead" protesters, Berdyansk port is now being shelled @unian

twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1498312223214743552
Illia Ponomarenko @IAPonomarenko
“Berdyansk is Ukraine!”
Local civilians are telling the Russians to fuck off.

Same video as the above

olexander scherba🇺🇦@olex_scherba
One more video of the brave people of Berdyansk chasing away the invaders. A reminder: just yesterday invaders shot a man in Berdyansk dead, because he refused to give over his cell phone. The guts of these civilians.

With reference to the air war side of things.., why aren’t Russian convoys being bombed etc?

The Ukrainian Air Force and it’s bases took a bit of a hammering on day one (so resources limited) and there’s also the issue of how effective or not the Russian mobile/organic air defenses are that move with the troops.

Possibly the bigger ? So far, and cause for some celebration, is the lack of an significant appearance by the Russian Air Force…there is analysis on that here:

rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

There is also some analysis around about why the Russian army has appeared to be so ineffective and disorganized so far, especially around Kiev, and particularly the odd way they have been operating their armoured vehicles…(often operating in isolation and without infantry support).

If I can find a link to the analysis I’ll post it down thread but the conclusion was that if the Russians got their act together with tactics and organization, and also decided to be less restrained with their artillery and similar munitions then there is still scope for things to get much much grimmer than they are now very quickly.

Reports on Sky News of Russia having used a vacuum bomb. Doesn’t say where at this stage.

@UKRAINEwearewithyou

Any Russian on here or Russian supporters? Interesting to hear what they think about the madness of Putin.

I'm Ukrainian, but from the East and I guess in this situation, you would view me as a "Russian supporter". Dual nationality and free access to media here, UK as well as Russia. The situation is a lot more complex than just Russia is an aggressor and Ukraine is a victim. It has been escalating since 2014 and arguably before. Ukraine is a hugely divided country, the west is much closer culturally to Poland and is largely Ukrainian speaking, the East is 75%Russian speaking. Since 2014 Ukraine has become more and more heavy handed with the Russian speaking population, refused to recognise Russian as an official language (for a large population it's the only language they speak), banned teaching Russian in school etc etc In 2014 the president who was in power 2010-2014 was removed by force. It caused an outrage in the East. An "illegal" referendum was held, where a vast majority voted to leave Ukraine. Ukraine brought in the military and started shelling Donetsk, Lugansk and everything in-between (yes, the same as we are seeing now, hospitals, schools, civilians) Please do not tell me about the propaganda on this. I lost friends, i have family members injured. 13,000 people died since 2014 and there was no outrage, no protection from Europe, barely any coverage in the "unbiased" Western media. A neo-nazi battalion Azov was promoted to be part of Ukrainian National Guard and nobody bat an eyelid (please google to read about their atrocities and white supremacy ideology. It's terrifying.

So what do I think about "the madness of Putin?" I think if the same public outcry happened 8 years ago, internal war within the Ukraine could have been prevented, which would have prevented this war. Violence always leads to violence.

I hate war. My family and friends are victims of war that for us started 8 years ago. Do I support what is happening now? Absolutely not! But for the Eastern Ukraine, it gives hope, that there is a future for our children too.

Ukraine is just as much of an aggressor as it is the victim.

@covetingthepreciousthings

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/germany-sends-tornado-warplanes-maritime-patrol-aircraft-baltic-sea-area-2022-02-28/

Confirmation of the warships and warplanes being sent today but no further info.

www.navyrecognition.com/index.php/naval-news/naval-news-archive/2022/february/11454-ten-russian-ships-conduct-air-defense-exercise-near-kaliningrad.html

Fair point - I didn't think of the less direct route!

Doesn't look so from this map, but can't guarantee how accurate my quick google was

Some alt-right Trump-loving gun totin' Putin fanboi who has embedded himself with Russian forces going to kick ass...yet another WTAF moment. Wake me up I'm in a nightmare...

twitter.com/borzou/status/1498393087952961541

This is a good thread from Michael Kofman trying to figure out Russian military mistakes. His analysis has been really solid since before the invasion:

twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167?s=20&t=BpBumtsJQWaId6Vh6IjTtQ

A Gulfstream G500 which took off from Luton has just entered Russian airspace. Any ideas as to what that might be about?

Doh: www.greenairnews.com/?p=1102 this map

[quote dreamingbohemian]This is a good thread from Michael Kofman trying to figure out Russian military mistakes. His analysis has been really solid since before the invasion:

twitter.com/KofmanMichael/status/1498381975022940167?s=20&t=BpBumtsJQWaId6Vh6IjTtQ[/quote]
That’s exactly the analysis that I was referring to upthread and was about to go looking for…

Thanks for saving me the effort..

@BeOne

A Gulfstream G500 which took off from Luton has just entered Russian airspace. Any ideas as to what that might be about?

Maybe Biden is popping in for a cuppa

@BeOne

A Gulfstream G500 which took off from Luton has just entered Russian airspace. Any ideas as to what that might be about?

An oligarch?

@BeOne

A Gulfstream G500 which took off from Luton has just entered Russian airspace. Any ideas as to what that might be about?

Not seeing anything of that description outbound from Luton on Flightradar right now - (2220 UK time)…if it is still being tracked roughly where is it?

@BeOne

A Gulfstream G500 which took off from Luton has just entered Russian airspace. Any ideas as to what that might be about?

Looks like it might be heading for Moscow. Perhaps a Russian who has dual citizenship and can get round the restrictions.

Well this is exactly the right question! Why can't Ukraine just do what it wants?

Because its an existential threat to Russia.

Ukraine is a former soviet country. If it shows that a country 'like russia' can finally properly adopt democracy, then thats a problem for Putin.

Putin has been facing an ever increasing amount of opposition and public protest. Its still relatively small in scale, but there is widespread unhappiness in the population.

Covid has hit hard with most avoiding vaccines due to lack of public trust in the State.

Putin himself needs a distraction and something to make him look strong.

The entire point is that Putin does not believe in self determination or democracy. 'Why can't he just let' is a mindset of someone who is free and takes the ability to choose for granted. Not every leader believes in that as a principle.

Putin keeps control by suppressing his own. He sees Ukraine as upstarts disrespecting mother Russia and getting in bed with the West who he sees as the destroyer of Soviet/Russian pride and world influence.

He wants to change the world order and force countries to obey rather that than to choose.