@Pernot165
What outcomes are likely from the peace talks? Does anybody think Ukraine will back down? If they do, what then?
He isn't going to accept anything that doesn't allow him to emerge from this having 'won' in his countries eyes.
I think it's incredibly difficult to predict.
Firstly there's an assumption that the talks are being held in good faith i.e. that both parties are committed to finding a solution and it's far from certain that Russia is operating under that presumption.
Having said that, I think Putin anticipated being in a very different situation to where he is now.
His two big problems are the scale of the international response (such as unprecedented announcements from the EU and Switzerland) which he couldn't have predicted and the determination of the Ukrainian people to resist.
It's one thing to take a country by military force and quite another to keep it when the population is heavily motivated to defend their independence.
The idea that Putin intended to sweep in an install a pro-Russian regime in govt can't be verified but it's a likely scenario.
But what now? It's clear the population isn't going to quietly roll over and see Putin's stooges run the country and as sanctions start to cut deep it's unknown just how long Russia can afford to keep fighting this war and just how much pressure (in the face of massive financial losses) his pet Oligarchs are going to put on him to back off.
Realistically, Putin should have started to realise that he's bitten off more than he can chew and that the cost of keeping fighting is one that's going to be very heavy - too heavy - to continue.
But, he's Putin and his mindset isn't measurable by western standards and he's personally well insulted from any fallout. Loss of face is not something he will contemplate regardless of the cost.
So it remains to be seen what Ukraine can offer that he'd be willing to accept and I think there's nothing on the table that is going to be palatable to both parties.