The Invasion Has Stalled

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So here we go. Four days in and the third consecutive thread on the conflict in Ukraine. The last two threads are a credit to the members of mumsnet. Who knows where thread four may find our world?

Thank you all.

Thread two : www.mumsnet.com/Talk/_chat/4491025-The-Invasion-Continues

Another one chiming in with support for these threads, they have been rational, measured and informative something desperately needed at the moment.

Russia has used them before in Syria apparently but they were vaporising ISIS fighters at the time. This article suggests they have already crossed that line in Ukraine.

www.news.com.au/world/europe/father-of-all-bombs-russias-brutal-weapon/news-story/45a3fda64cc7d32d389c06749809b4bc

@DuncinToffee

Warning from Tobias Elwood re Truss supporting UK people to fight in Ukraine

We say NO to tasking the NATO alliance - but now endorse UK civilians, with no military training, to go and fight in Ukraine!

Please do NOT go if you have no combat experience.

You may get yourself and others who have to look after you, killed.

I do think Truss' support of this must be cover for 'other things'. A way of creating plausible deniability because I'm fairly sure they understand that the average Brit wouldn't have a clue what they were doing. Especially in a foreign country they've probably never been to.

@CovidCorvid

I really hope this ends with a Russian coup. Not only for Ukraine but the Russian people deserve better than this.

Yes please. Agree 100%

These threads are very balanced. They are great. Thank you.
I urge you all to follow Lovely Lydia on Instagram if you don't already.
She is brilliant. Very knowledgeable. Lots of knowledge.

Thank you - place marking!

@DrBlackbird

At the end of the last thread there was some praise of Johnson being ‘ahead of the curve’ wrt Putin’s intentions. Johnson has never displayed a dazzling grasp of foreign affairs so if there are prescient voices in Westminster, it’s probably safe to say his isn't one of them. Instead let’s give credit to the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament and their 2020 report on Russia who very likely were the ones to brief him.

Agree. The guardian has two interesting articles about how Boris has blood on his hands regarding this. Yes he may have changed tack over the last few months but even in 2020 the guardian wrote an article saying he and other senior Tories were burying their heads in the sand inc suppression of a report on the matter for 8 months! Due to putting money over security.

Worrying development

Polina Ivanova

^Kyiv’s mayor says the city is now completely surrounded and all exits blocked by Russian troops. No way to evacuate civilians.

Siege begins.

twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1498002635881918468?s=21

@BoreOfWhabylon

Thank you for the continuation of these excellent threads.

I wonder if use of thermobaric or chemical weapons - surely a war crime - would justify direct intervention by Western/UN forces?

The UN could possibly intervene under those circumstances but that isn't going to happen while Russia have a permanent veto.

Could Russia be kicked out the UN?

Sweden are sending arms now, something that they have not done since 1939. They’re not even NATO. Is this just a show of unity from all these European countries or is there something else going on? Are they just trying to deter Putin from invading another European country after Ukraine? Has he got plans they know about? Or are they piling the pressure on to get Putin out ?

I've just been to the Ukrainian Club (I'm not Ukrainian but I've known a Ukrainian family for my whole life) and that fucker moaning about his Lake Como villa can fuck right off. There are people there whose relatives went to Ukraine to visit family, stayed to try and help them leave the country and are now stuck and facing the possibility of having to fight the Russian army on the streets. I'm so sick of everything being corrupted for the benefit of billionaires.

I still can't believe that Russian agents killed people on British soil, using indiscriminate weapons with the potential to cause mass casualties, and our politicians just shrugged it off. I just hope at the end of all this ethics become the primary focus of politics and there's less grubbing after dirty money.

[quote DuncinToffee]Worrying development

Polina Ivanova

^Kyiv’s mayor says the city is now completely surrounded and all exits blocked by Russian troops. No way to evacuate civilians.

Siege begins.

twitter.com/polinaivanovva/status/1498002635881918468?s=21[/quote]
How awful. This is all so worrying but very much agree that these threads have been great.
Placemarking and hoping that something is done about Putin soon.

Can someone educate me on something here, please as it’s something I genuinely don’t know?

Can Putin be tried for war crimes?

From what I’ve read, yes he can as he’s broken international law, but how would that work in practice? Who would go into Russia to get him?

It's just so odd how it's all playing out.

@NCdBcOuting

Name changed to come here and also say that this thread is a credit to MN. I’m finding it helpful and balanced. Thank you OP and everyone.

I’m a Brit of Russian heritage, needless to say completely appalled and heartbroken watching this unfold. A really compacted set of feelings I can’t even name yet. Like PP, would also be interested in how to help from here, other than donating money (already done) to reputable charities.

You are welcome here and I at least am glad to have you - it's not in your name, Putin is Russian, Russians are not Putin.

Thanks for this reasonable and informative thread.

If anyone is on Twitter, can I recommend the following....

@KyivPost (Ukranian news in English since 1995)
@ukraine_world (similar)
@KyivIndependent (english language news in Ukraine, minute by minute reporting from Ukraine)

All very informative and I get a sense of a lot going on from these accounts.

@Aubrrgin

Can someone educate me on something here, please as it’s something I genuinely don’t know?

Can Putin be tried for war crimes?

From what I’ve read, yes he can as he’s broken international law, but how would that work in practice? Who would go into Russia to get him?

I suppose his countrymen/military would be expected to surrender him as a war criminal? But no idea how that would work in practice.

Thanks for more measured threads

The nuclear option is they switch off the oil, gas and vital minerals to hostile countries triggering an energy crisis like no other and harbouring a global depression probably accompanied by a very sharp rise in inflation. Indeed that is Putin's gamble that the west with a cost of living crisis, massive debt and democratic government will fear that more than anything and why he will most probably not expand his territorial ambitions further than Ukraine.

@Roundeartheratchriatmas

Is the prospect of a coup even slightly realistic ?

I assume if Russia starts to bleed enough in economic terms people might become very unhappy but it’s still a huge jump to actually take out Putin.

There's a piece in the Observer about the Russian state bank worrying about a run on the banks when they open tomorrow. If the rouble collapses, there very well might be. Whether he'd be replaced by anyone more reasonable is another matter, of course.

It's horrifying that Kyiv is encircled - surely this puts zelensky in the position that if he comes away from these talks without capitulating to Russia, he will be giving to go ahead for a lot of civilian deaths, as there are so many people trapped in Kiev. I imagine putin is relying on zelensky not wanting to do this, or grinding him down with further air raids.

It's been too quick for a full scale evacuation, but I wonder of the 'standing our ground' approach was a terrible idea, and playing right into Putins hands, as he doesn't seem to have qualms about targeting civilians.

A us b52 left from uk the other day (fair-something?) and flew to poland and back. I wonder what that was about

@Aubrrgin

Can someone educate me on something here, please as it’s something I genuinely don’t know?

Can Putin be tried for war crimes?

From what I’ve read, yes he can as he’s broken international law, but how would that work in practice? Who would go into Russia to get him?

Not at the minute. Some expert on the news said he hasn’t crossed into war crime territory yet. If the Russians can be shown to be targeting civilians (the odd accidental strike doesn’t count) or,executing prisoners then that would be war crimes.

@GallopingHighRoad

I suspect there have been things going on behind the scenes that we have yet to learn. These include sophisticated technical support for Ukraine from western defence forces on the ground and the risk of a coup is probably now becoming a realistic prospect in the Kremlin mindset.

Yes, I think so.