ADs happily share Dave Grohl whilst running in the dark?

[NannyGythaOgg]

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@TheReluctantPhoenix

You will probably all like this Spectator article which articulates what you all believe (and I, in part, believe as well).

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.spectator.co.uk/article/stresses-and-strains-the-evolution-of-covid-is-not-random/amp

However, there are counter examples, smallpox being the most obvious. It is spread (mainly) through droplets and prolonged face to face contact, but never evolved to be mild. Ebola Reston, where the US dodged a bullet, was a mutated strain of Ebola, which spread through aerosol. Took out a whole troop of monkeys.

It is complex and the best way out is still herd immunity via vaccination (like smallpox), not natural infection.

@theReluctantPhoenix this sounds really interesting. Thanks for sharing. I shall read to block out the noise of Hey Duggee..

@TheReluctantPhoenix I think that might have been the article I read where I picked up that said about India.

@Iheartmysmart You can have my Dave G if I get a childcare person (or just someone happy to have a baby sleep on them for a few hours a day so I can shower and do the washing up, I'm not fussy) in exchange.

Been coming across the attitude that people seeing their elderly parents now they've been vaccinated makes a mockery of all the effort the none vulnerable have put in being locked down.
I don't understand? I thought that was the point of the vaccinations. What have I missed? I'm chuffed to little green apples that our elders will soon have less of a risk of dying from covid and be able to see their families, hopefully lots and lots before they die from the other things that people who are old tend to die from.

I have no answer as to the reason why but I do have an interesting observation to recount;

We moved to France for DH’s job last summer and I’ve now had several (boring) months to sit and observe the culture and interesting differences between here and the uk.

What I notice is that many, many french people are interacting on a daily basis with their families, friends, workmates and wider community and all schools remain open. Yet, the average daily case numbers for covid have been on a very stable plateau of around 20,000 since the end of last November.

I regularly meet on zoom for a chat with local ladies in an attempt to improve my french and they often chat about picking their grandkids up from school or of their DC who have just had babies and they are going over to see them, along with several other members of the family travelling in from other areas. People seem to regularly go to friend’s houses for coffee or dinner and indeed it is only advisory and not law here to meet other people inside your house. We’ve had several invitations to dinners and drinks at people’s houses and it seems to be totally the norm for younger people to still be having quite a few friends round to their house for a weekend party.

There most certainly isn’t the same level of fear from the media or government and although plenty of the fun stuff is still shut and there is a 6pm curfew, France has so far not had to have a further lockdown since the minor one they had last November.
Yes there are masks in schools and all indoor places but equally it is not uncommon at all to see people with the masks on their chin or for example when I took my car to the garage this morning, not one of the 3 mechanics I saw had them on at all so it’s not like they can argue it’s the masks making the difference. Equally I regularly pass a large walking group of elderly men and then a separate one of elderly ladies whilst walking the dog. They are outside but most don’t wear a mask and most appear to lift share to the car park. Similarly, it is still possible to visit relatives in care homes here (although that is quite time restricted and mask enforcement is strict).

Being an AD, none of this behaviour bothers me in the slightest and I like the fact people are still trying to live as normally as they can and not to the detriment of seeing their own friends and family. But it does seem a world away from the way people in the UK are being forced to live for so long and it doesn’t seem to be having any negative impact to figures here. ICU occupation is at less than 65% and it’s -4 in mid France today so still in the height of winter.

The only anecdotal reason I can offer is that the current stability is due to the shear numbers of people who’ve already now had covid. I didn’t get it whilst still in the Uk but i got it here last October, along with almost everybody else I knew. And on November 8th last year, daily cases peaked at 86,000.

Not much point or fact to my post I know, but I find it quite interesting to make the comparison based purely on how people go about their everyday business at the moment in the two countries and have been trying to work out why it’s not causing a problem here (fingers crossed).

I think that the idea was that once the vulnerable groups (to 9) were vaccinated, mixing would be fine as there are few Covid cases requiring hospitalisation in previous healthy under 50s.

BUT

new variants potentially achieving vaccine escape have made this risky as, if vaccine escape is achieved, all the vaccinated groups will again become vulnerable to infection.

So, the new plan, it seems to me, is that vaccinations and distancing etc will, combined, drive the infection to virtually non existent levels. So, as long as the vaccination rate beats the r number, we will be home free.

Boris is being understandably cautious but the numbers are looking good and I would expect a gradual unlocking from March 8th starting with schools and outdoor sports.

Viruses want to survive so in most cases, they become less deadly as they mutate.

In most cases. But some become more deadly.

In fact, mutations that become more infectious are a bigger problem as they are likely to lead to more hospitalisations and possibly more deaths.

@theReluctantPhoenix you are more knowledgeable about this than me. Am I correct in thinking that so far, existing vaccines appear to protect again serious illness in relation to mutated strains? Though obviously the data is limited at the moment. But if this is correct, is the concern that a new variant will emerge in relation to which the existing vaccines do not prevent serious illness? As this is an issue that has bern puzzling me. Thank you!

Lostinacloud, that's really interesting to hear your observations of France, compared with England.

So glad to hear things are stable over there, that's really hopeful.

Got a runny nose 👃 get tested well mine is dripping like a tap coz February = hayfever kicking in hard. OH bloody joy 🙄🙄

My French expat friends say the same, none of the scare mongering

@110APiccadilly I remember those days. DS wouldn’t sleep at all unless attached to me. It was exhausting.

I think Dave would be very good with small babies for what it’s worth. He has a very soothing voice. If I were anywhere near you I’d happily spend a few hours having new baby snuggles while you had a snooze.

@chocolatesweets . That is so sad about the decorations. Are you on any local fb groups? If so, am sure there will be people who have bunting etc to lend. That's what I ended up doing last month for my youngest's bday.

You are not alone. My kids have not let up with the constant low level moaning/bickering/whinging for days.

@fatladysang just to pick up on the BF thing, I have a nearly 4 year old and she asked for it multiple times a day. I couldn't cope any more but felt like I had to give it to her. Last week I just didn't want to do it, and I explained we can have lots of cuddles but mummy can't make more milk. She was a bit upset for a few days but we did lots of playing, and now she just likes talking about breastfeeding and hugging me tight. It's doable!

Sorry that should read nearly 3 year old.

@chocolatesweets Have you got any old comics or magazines around? You could cut the pages into strips and make paper chains. Also a cheap roll of wrapping paper cut into triangles could be used for bunting. Plain white paper plates and get the kids to draw pictures on them. Please tell me if I’m starting to sound like one of those really annoying “making memories” people!
Not sure how old they are but to be honest if I asked teenage DS what he had for his birthday when he was younger I doubt he’d remember.

@TooManyPlatesInMotion,

I am scientific but not a real expert in this field. I suspect others will know more than me.

The Covid-Sars-2 virus, the virus responsible for Covid 19, uses its 'spike protein' to enter our ACE2 receptor cells in the lungs. Our immune system will recognise a variety of the shapes on the spike protein and respond to it, so the immune response for those vaccinated depends on how similar the mutated version of the spike protein is to the original protein.

Small changes will not render the vaccine (or immunity gained from having had Covid 19) ineffective. The more changes, however, the less the new spike protein will be recognised. Most believe that the Kent variant has not changed sufficiently to elude vaccines, but may be part way there (thus, we don't want it to mutate more).

On the other hand, the South African variant may have, at least partially, achieved vaccine escape. The reality is that the AZ vaccine trial in SA was on a population of healthy 31 year olds, some of whom got sick having been vaccinated, but none sick enough for hospital. However, very few 31 year olds are hospitalised anyway, so the question of whether the AZ vaccine prevents severe disease in the South African variant is still an open one.

If you are really interested you can listen to the real experts discussing it at UNESCO today. The link is below:

unesco-org.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_uB_BjIrpT0m9Zkiad9h19A

@theReluctantPhoenix thank you. I will listen to the discussion.

I appreciate you explaining the details to me!

Just checking in. to everyone.
I was annoyed yesterday when put tv to watch Pointless and it was the news conference again. But my life is pointless.

@TheReluctantPhoenix what amazed me was the totally crazy reporting on those trials. The headlines were screaming that the vaccine was ineffective, when in fact the study could not draw any conclusions about severe disease, which is the only metric that matters. A total non story...

@tatutata,

I am afraid it isn’t really. The fact that it failed to prevent mild disease in the young volunteers is strong evidence that it has achieved vaccine escape.

We might hope that it prevents serious disease but the probability would lie in the other direction.

South Africa is going to sell its AZ vaccine. They would not be doing this without good reason.

@theReluctantPhoenix yes, the coverage on this issue makes much more sense to me now in light of your explanation.

However, over all things look reasonably positive - they are vaccinating at an impressive rate and infections are falling fast. I am trying to hold on to a bit of hope for schools going back in March and maybe a couple of other things easing too, or soon after. Outdoor sport maybe.

@TheReluctantPhoenix yes but the reporting was making it sound as if this was confirmed fact, which it isn't. It was a fairly small sample size as well. Of course it doesn't look good, it's still totally irresponsible reporting.

[quote Iheartmysmart]@110APiccadilly I remember those days. DS wouldn’t sleep at all unless attached to me. It was exhausting.

I think Dave would be very good with small babies for what it’s worth. He has a very soothing voice. If I were anywhere near you I’d happily spend a few hours having new baby snuggles while you had a snooze.[/quote]
To be fair to my daughter, she does sleep in her Moses basket at night now (with fairly frequent wakings) which makes a big difference. It's just in the day I tend to end up stuck under a sleeping baby or else wearing her in the sling (when I can get stuff done, but not sleeping or showering).

Would definitely take you up on the offer to cuddle her so I could get a nap though!?

Don't know where the rogue question mark at the end came from.

@TooManyPlatesInMotion,

I am positive, too, I think I wrote that up thread.

I think vaccines plus some herd immunity from infection plus all the other measures taken mean we are winning.

I agree that schools and outdoor sport should resume March 8th (and think they will). And, after that, things will slowly normalise.

I do, however, think that short term compliance will lead to a quicker win, which is where I suspect I differ with most on this thread.