ADs are braving the wind and the rain

[CruCru]

Hi all

I couldn’t find the new thread so here is one I set up. It’s windy out there! Glad I weeded my flowerbeds a couple of days ago.

Delurking to post this gem. You are the sane voices.

For me, it would be a risk-benefit calculation. For instance, if taking one of these tests meant I could visit my gran in her care home, I'd time it carefully so that a false positive wasn't a disaster to some plan or other (e.g. planned medical care) then very happily take the test. However, I'm privileged in that I can (mostly) WFH.

I've just realised I wasn't at all clear on the testing thing - the one in 11 figure is the chance that your result would be a false positive, given it was positive. The overall chance of a false positive is a lot lower.

@GarlandaChynoweth

Delurking to post this gem. You are the sane voices.

I haven't done any of those things (and I live pretty close to the middle picture ) but I would have to resist very hard posting the bit from League of Gentlemen with Roy Chubby Brown saying "you're fucking welcome!"

Hi @GarlandaChynoweth and 😱

Sonic I’ll keep everything crossed for your freedom!

Thanks Acorn. Isolating with AD+++ DH and a toddler. Pls send prayers and wine 🍷

Sonic I don’t have wine but I’m building a good selection of spirits!

Does anyone know if internal decorating (by a company) will be allowed during lockdown? If it is, it might be a good time to get the job done.

Sorry, this is based on lockdown not being lifted except for Xmas. It’ll take time to get quotes and things.

@GarlandaChynoweth Someone with loads of union jacks in their post posted something similar in a local fb group last night. Long list of how its all the publics fault and she listed the BLM marches , people going to pubs , having barbies in their gardens. I informed her that its wrong to blame the public for a VIRUS and pointed out she had missed an event in her post. And then i linked this....
www.cheshire-live.co.uk/news/chester-cheshire-news/cheshire-streets-ve-day-conga-18226099

The thing is too... the BLM protests, beach flocking etc all happened a good while before the current increase in infections so it's a bit mad to blame them!

@Sonicthehedgehogg I'm not too far from there either but haven't been involved in any mass gatherings, drunken socialising etc, I'm way too dull for that

@WouldBeGood hi there

Ironic that all of those photos seem to be outdoor locations...so probably nobody caught covid from those events anyway

I agree, She just wanted a chance to have a dig Cant bear for her beloved Boris to be criticised + the sly casual racism

Funny how she has nothing to say about the VE Day conga article.

Well this is timely
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/03/protest-exemption-set-to-be-removed-from-england-lockdown-rules

[quote MercyBooth]Well this is timely
www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/03/protest-exemption-set-to-be-removed-from-england-lockdown-rules[/quote]
Obviously an attempt to stop the 5th November protest

I’m a bit worried about those doing last night of the pubs...Vienna was very busy when the attack happened, for that reason apparently.

Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
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4m
Vallance says the models produced “are not forecasts, they’re models which tell you how things can look. But they’re not forecasts and they should be looked at knowing that.

Hmm. I’m not sure much of the public would have looked at the models produced on Sat knowing that.
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
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3m
Indeed, if memory serves, I’m not sure that’s how they were presented.

I didnt realise there was a protest on Thursday I half expected one this coming Saturday.

Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
·
7m
A model isn’t of any value if it doesn’t have some predictive power.
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
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5m
And if what Vallance is saying is right what is the value in showing them to the public?
Lewis Goodall
@lewis_goodall
·
41s
Both Whitty and Vallance resiling from several of the slides they showed on Saturday. Emphasising that they say only several of the graphs were especially important and relevant. But as Jeremy Hunt is noting- in that case, why show them to the public?

"Obviously an attempt to stop the 5th November protest"

I don't think they let you rent the cellars under the Houses of Parliament to store your totally non-suspicious barrels of a powdery substance any more, do they?

@Orangeblossom7777

Going swimming this morning, sunny day here. See in news the following:

The government's three-tier system was effective in bringing down the number of coronavirus cases, an Oxford University professor has claimed.

Carl Heneghan, director of the university's Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine, said cases in Liverpool, where the most severe restrictions were imposed, had been brought down by a half and that hospital admissions had "stabilised".

Professor Heneghan said new lockdown measures should be based on "actual data" rather than models that had shown to be wrong, after he described how one forecast of 4,000 deaths a day was "mathematically proven" to be incorrect.

Just dipping in and out so this has prob been said already. The 4000 deaths pet day projection was based on a forecast of the UK having 1000 deaths on Nov 1st. As the figure was only a fraction of that then the 4000 deaths is patently ridiculous as CH pointed out. But a huge figure makes good headlines and let's BJ look sensible (rather than the cunt he is) in making the country lock down. Interesting that he pooh-poohed Liam Fox's proposal of a Govt committee to analyse all data.....

I did have a little snigger on another thread where a poster pompously informed the OP that those who "understand the science" know that without a lockdown there would be at least 4000 deaths each day, if not more. Dick.

So slow at typing I missed the updates about CW and PV. Indded, why show the graphs? The public haven't exactly been great at interpreting data. Could it be to scare people in to submission? Surely not!

We have high cases here now (SW) and the MAT sent a letter today saying things they are looking at including

teaching is big groups in the hall
using support staff to cover absences
sending year groups home for online learning
using rotas
closing schools

in particular looking at our city as high cases here...

sounds ominous

already got one sent home having online lessons, actual proper ones this time with the teachers lessons being streamed online

Also on the numbers, noticed regarding Scotland- w their numbers have decreased without a full lockdown...so those tiers could have worked and cost quite a bit less, no madness like swimming pools and gardens closed either. Maybe starting a bit earlier helps as well

Do these deaths include the on average 1,500 people dying every day on average in the UK or on top of that?

How many are with covid and how many from?

@TrustTheGeneGenie

How do you all feel about the mass testing?

I feel very tinfoil-hattish about this! Non-compliant Liverpool expecting 30 units from the armed forces to be deployed there to carry out testing

Obviously that's a joke.. (is it?)

I genuinely don't know what to feel about it!

These restrictions are temporary and they will end on Wednesday 2 December, at which point we will seek to ease restrictions and revert back to the tiered system on a local and regional basis and in line with the latest data.
In black and white from my MP. I know it's the same as what Saint Boris said, but the more people we can quote on it, the better.