ADs are braving the wind and the rain

[CruCru]

Hi all

I couldn’t find the new thread so here is one I set up. It’s windy out there! Glad I weeded my flowerbeds a couple of days ago.

My experience of ICU in my area and surrounding ones is that it is very busy. On sunday out of 18 level 3 patients 14 were covid, nearly double our normal Icu beds. Some so ill we couldn't move them. I read the twitter link posted above and not sure what the point of it was..got the impression he thinks it's a conspiracy, juggling of figures, who knows, but in my area it's very real, many staff are suffering mentally, we are short staffed but all pulling together, organisation is better, treatment is more informed, lockdown did work first time but is obv not a long term solution...

@TrustTheGeneGenie

Our local hospital has released figures of inpatients who've tested positive. Icu is full, all 4 beds of it. I imagine it's full quite often tbh.

I wish they'd say yes there are 120 inpatients with covid. 57 of them were admitted because of covid, 18 of them have caught it in hospital and the rest are asymptotic and in for something else but we had to test them. (Those aren't real figures obvs because I don't have them but I'd really like to know!)

Exactly this. If there was more transparency, I could buy in to it more easily.

However the only people showing data in any digestible format, that is backed up by actual sources that we can check out ourselves ( though I'm grateful to them doing the donkey work so we don't have to all the time) are those that ibake has shared and all that data is telling a very different story.

Exactly I'm not denying they're busy, I'm sure they are. But I would like to be able to compare it to a normal year for example. I'd like to know how many people are "extras" because of covid that kinda thing you know? Perspective is a wonderful thing.

@LivinLaVidaLoki

What I don't understand is how we got locked down based on a projection we weren't even tracking at the time.....

Surely by this graph, the only two models worth showing us are the two lower ones that are actually tracking the numbers. That's still a really high projection. Why bother showing the other two though.

Even doom monger Neil Ferguson came out recently and said they didn't think there was nearly as much asymptomatic spread as at first. ( Trying to explain why he got it so wrong, but still, coming from him that's a big admission)

Of course it was Neil Ferguson who invented the contiguous cull during the last foot and mouth epidemic. It was later shown that this had been totally unecessary and simply slaughtering infected animals was sufficient. But of course his 'modeling' of the infection held sway. This led to a horrific and public scene locally of a youth with a gun shooting loose and panicked sheep in a field and maiming them thoroughly before killing them. I know this has little to do with covid, but it shows to me how social norms and humanity can go out of the window when people are frightened and persuaded by incorrect and unchallenged scientific data.

@NastyBlouse

Personally — and sceptically — I wonder if there’s a long game being played here politically whereby the government is cynically aiming to convince large(r) sections of the country that the NHS ‘cannot cope’ and ‘isn’t fit for purpose’. They’ll argue that a functioning health service shouldn’t need 100-year-olds to pace their own gardens to raise money for it, and that it shouldn’t take shutting the entire country down twice to stop hospital ICUs being overwhelmed. (Even though the government itself engineered both these situations.)

I don’t know. Maybe my tinfoil hat needs refitting

I'll join you in the tinfoil Isle! Ideologically, governments all over have been moving 'right' to low regulation and small state. When Ds say 'but why on earth would the Govt destroy the economy unless we were all going to die', I want to scream and explain that a trashed economy doesn't actually affect many of those with wealth and power. This is the perfect opportunity to fast forward privatisation of the NHS, to further de-fund state education, to roll back environmental and employment regulations... I could go on, but I'll bore even myself. It's a great time to buy shares low which will go up (if you're rich enough to wait) , or sell high (if you've invested say in pharma). I have always supported the NHS, state education, regulation etc on ideological grounds rather than because of personal need. Without that ideology - which many governments don't share - why would I continue to support them? I am wealthy so I don't need this stuff? That's why seeing some of the teacher threads is like watching turkeys voting for Xmas. Some of them are basically arguing that they are unnecessary. So why would a right wing government want to keep funding them then? Same with the NHS- if it can't look after Non-Covid patients, why would anyone want to support it? Low tax receipts because of people out of work? Perfect excuse to roll back the welfare state. Right I'm off to replace the batteries in the pigeons now 😂

I've just read an article by a Dr Keri Nixon (on the dm I'm afraid) however one thing she said stood out to me
The truth is adults in poverty are not afforded the luxury of reaching the average Covid age death of 82.
They will on average die ten years earlier than their affluent peers.
It is so so true.

I’ve been unable to post for a bit, tech problems... so didn’t get to answer @TrustTheGeneGenie and @NannyGythaOgg - I agree with you Trust, a god like that is not really in keeping with the idea of him being a father, is it? But nanny your last paragraph Was interesting, thinking if support rather than catalyst.
@Weneedmusicandtheatre I know it’s a mean question! always good for a lively discussion when I audition singers.

I’m sure some hospitals are indeed overly busy with Covid patients. That doesn’t mean a national crisis on the NHS, though - as someone in a previous thread said, a multi car RTA will fill an ICU and stop others using the same beds for some time. Tough for the hospital and the staff and relatives.

I imagine that staffing in the NHS is poor at the moment due to lots of factors, not that they're all off with Covid. Could be:
Off with Covid
Off with something else
Isolating and awaiting symptoms/test result
Off with stress relating to Covid/lockdown
Off with stress relating to other things.
Finally getting round to using some A/L after a long eight months of working non stop.
Using some A/L in anticipation that they can't have any later on this winter either.
Bog standard low staffing due to unfilled posts.
As always, the details matter. Posting simple stats about how many staff aren't at work will lead to assumptions being made.

How do you all feel about the mass testing?

@DrDiva
it was the priest's get out answer to
"Why does God allow bad things to happen to good people?"
"Why does God let bad people prosper?"
"Why doesn't God answer prayers?"
etc. etc.
Usually followed by 'You'll get your reward in heaven"

My philosophy doesn't have a god in it. I am more than happy for people to have individual faith if that brings them comfort and solace, they can believe what they want so long as it doesn't impact on me or others.

I am very anti any organised religion that purports to know what 'God' wants etc - and usually is patriarchal and exclusionary of there being any other way.

Oh yes me too - I was brought up in an insanely religious family (I use the description advisedly) which put me off entirely.

I am not averse to faith in greater things, however. Just not a nameable person.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

How do you all feel about the mass testing?

Do we know what the level of false positives is? I seem to recall someone explaining on a previous thread why it wasn't necessarily a good idea due to high levels of false positives. A certain percentage of people having to isolate unnecessarily etc. Having said that... I'm on my 3rd isolation this year for a cough. That's happening anyway.

@BellaintheWychElm

I've just read an article by a Dr Keri Nixon (on the dm I'm afraid) however one thing she said stood out to me The truth is adults in poverty are not afforded the luxury of reaching the average Covid age death of 82. They will on average die ten years earlier than their affluent peers. It is so so true.

Not only are they likely to die earlier but they are more likely to have disabilities earlier and for longer and they are more likely to end up in lowerer quality of care homes because local authorities pay the minimum amount which frequently means low staffing levels and undertrained staff. When I was last involved the local authority in my area paid £370 per week but the average cost of the best homes was between 2 and 3 times that.

I'd happily be tested more often if it meant larger portions of society being able to get up and running.

Re Mass testing.
I'm glad I'm not in Liverpool. I'm not averse to it in principle but I don't trust the results to be used responsibly.

I'll be happier to decide whether I'm up for it when I see what happens to in Liverpool

I don't know what the rate of false positives is. I was just watching the news and they mentioned that being a potential issue but someone had said that you'd be tested every week or so so it wouldn't matter? I'm not sure what he meant by that. You'd have to be tested every day for it not to matter surely.

If there's a lot of false positives surely it's going to seem like it is always bad, there's always a lot of cases no?

I wouldn't mind like you say if it meant freedom but I cynically do not believe that it will.

Sonic did you have three positive tests?

Not had a positive yet (awaiting results from a test yesterday). Isolated in March, September and now. Getting a test has been incrementally better each time, although the time waiting for results is still a guessing game.
Viruses always head straight for my chest so it's been me causing it every time, DH will divorce me next time

@Sonicthehedgehogg

Not had a positive yet (awaiting results from a test yesterday). Isolated in March, September and now. Getting a test has been incrementally better each time, although the time waiting for results is still a guessing game. Viruses always head straight for my chest so it's been me causing it every time, DH will divorce me next time

Sorry if I’m misunderstanding

Do you mean you get negative tests and did a full two weeks isolation?

I have asthma and a cough doesn’t mean anything - except high pollution and pollen levels!

I saw somewhere (sorry, not 100% sure where) that the false positive rate for the quick test they want to use is 0.1% or 1 in a thousand. Which is not bad, but if 1% of the population actually have Covid, that means about one in every 11 positive results would be a false positive. Which might be ok if you can work from home etc. Not great if you're talking about a one in 11 chance of losing money, etc when you're not in fact ill.

@110APiccadilly

I saw somewhere (sorry, not 100% sure where) that the false positive rate for the quick test they want to use is 0.1% or 1 in a thousand. Which is not bad, but if 1% of the population actually have Covid, that means about one in every 11 positive results would be a false positive. Which might be ok if you can work from home etc. Not great if you're talking about a one in 11 chance of losing money, etc when you're not in fact ill.

Add in the low rate of asymptomatic transmission and it’s totally pointless hassle. Especially if the person is doing 1m+ anyway.

First time round couldn't get a test as they were not available to general population at the time IIRC. Requested one through work but our trust had been granted 7(!) tests per day and I wasn't important enough to get one (14 days isolation).

Second time tried to get test through drive in but they had bugger all (was end of Sep at the height of problems with availability) but got a test from work on day four and the negative result on day 7. (7 days isolation).

I've now got another new and chesty cough. Was wfh and not going out after had contact with colleague who later tested positive when it started. So duly got a test yesterday and waiting to either be told we're stuck here for a bit longer or we can be released.

Sorry, above was a response to @AcornAutumn

Will stop banging on about myself now