36 COVID fatalities reported today. We are on the way out of this 🌟🌟

[Jkslays]

36 reported fatalities today (weekend caveat), the lowest number since the day before lockdown was announced. 77 & 115 the last two Sundays for comparison

Mercifully, the human toll of this crisis is easing

I'm hopeful the trends will continue to improve

As reported by Professor Karol Sikora on Twitter

This is amazing news and surely our schools should be able to open as normal come September!

@Sparklfairy

Just for comparison around 450 people die of cancer every day.

Where's that then? Because in England and Wales we 'only' have around 11,000 deaths of ALL causes per week!

That's what cancer research UK say. Perhaps you could advise them if you think they're wrong?

Op you're not wrong. It's going in the right direction.

Apparently it's wrong to be optimistic.

Stay alert. This is not the time to go to Primark.

This is exactly the time to go primark. The shop will be open and I need some bits before we get the second wave and it locks down again.

@LisaSimpsonsbff

Needlessly hostile. I didn't realise I was the only one worried about the global pandemic, I'll keep it to myself!

@Willow2017 couldn’t agree more. It seems some deaths ( and lives) are more important than others.
People want to be offended. Of course it’s good news we are looking at 36 deaths, not the nearly 1000 we had in mid April.
I tend to look at the mid week figures though, they are probably the most accurate.

I agree that the new cases is the important thing here. Deaths are more likely to be people already confirmed as having the virus already. I work in a hospital and we have gone from a Covid ward to a clean ward. Patients are tested before they are allowed onto the ward then every 4 days until discharged. Other Covid wards have very few patients in them and last i heard none in ICU. Compared to a few weeks ago these are very promising signs.

@SisterAgatha but we are testing more so it makes sense we will detect more , and everyone is now eligible for a test which wasn't the case before ,doesn't meant we are having more cases just yet ,

I am looking at this, and the 7 rolling figures, as a positive OP and I truly hope this means we are on and will stay on the right path.

The frothers sit all day waiting for these threads to tell anyone that voices a positive opinion they are murderers though!

Jkslays Sun 14-Jun-20 20:35:01
Still lower than last Sunday and week on week.

Comparing Sunday figures is practically meaningless as Sunday figures are known to be inaccurate. Deaths are increasingly occurring in areas that do not usually report on a Sunday.

We need to wait for more reliable weekday figures for a better direct comparison.

@oaktree where did you see this modelling as I haven't seen it and more tests will obviously mean we detect more
Admittance to hospital I thought is going down so that would be relative and the to disappoint you but the whole of Europe rent wearing face masks 24/7 how so you think they are eating in a restaurant or drinking

People who think this is just a dip and the lockdown lifting will cause a second wave... when will we know? It’s been 2 weeks now since everyone went to the beach and was allowed to meet in gardens and the cases don’t necessarily appear to be going up (although might be slightly?). How long will it take until we see an effect if there is going to be one?

@Jkslays, some people can suck the positive out of anything. Deaths in double figures and the lowest for 12 weeks is excellent news, however you cut it. I swear if you gave some people £1 million they’d moan because it wasn’t two.

@HannahStern

Jkslays Sun 14-Jun-20 20:35:01 Still lower than last Sunday and week on week.

Comparing Sunday figures is practically meaningless as Sunday figures are known to be inaccurate. Deaths are increasingly occurring in areas that do not usually report on a Sunday.

We need to wait for more reliable weekday figures for a better direct comparison.

Ok if you track back - Monday for Monday m, Tuesday for Tuesday ect.. they are still falling what ever way you look at it.

The seven day rolling averages for deaths and new cases are at their lowest since March

hannahatern then they areas reporting this week are the same as last week so they are comparable and it is good news. Why are you doom mongers to determined to see a glass half empty not a glass half full. Week 9n week the numbers are falling, that is good news FFS.

The deaths falling is positive, yes and I think we ALL know by now about the lag etc, but we also know about the rolling average and it's that that's important.

I too was a little bit concerned about the seemingly plateaued infection rates, but that could be to do with more testing. I hope that's why.

Yes, we are now slowly coming out of lockdown - shops opening etc and generally, guidelines are easing, which is a scary and cautious time and in theory could lead to a spike in infections, but we have seen the same happen in other countries and so far, there haven't been any second waves.

I'm not saying there definitely won't be any. I don't know and nobody does for sure, but we know what the alternative is and there is now way you will keep this country locked up indefinitely.

Even 36 deaths from Covid is far too many, regardless of how far the mortality rate has dropped. I won't relax until we're down to 0

The number of new cases has increased to 1,514 though 😢

@Awwlookatmybabyspider

Even 36 deaths from Covid is far too many, regardless of how far the mortality rate has dropped. I won't relax until we're down to 0

I rest my case.

Hardly, the new daily infections are rising.

A week ago, the seven day rolling average of new cases was 1633, today it is 1385. Though as others have pointed out there are a hell of a lot of variables behind the testing, particularly with roll out to asymptomatic people in care homes etc.

The latest hospital admissions data next week will be interesting, but that is also always quite a spiky profile.

@MadameMeursault

The number of new cases has increased to 1,514 though 😢

Yes because of increased testing. If you look at it as a % of positive tests I believe it's still falling.

@Hmmph
Ireland eased the restrictions on the 18th of May. I would say that almost instantly a large % of the population started socialising again, parties and so on even though they were still banned.

We're in phase 2 now and we still haven't seen a big spike even though most people are not following the restrictions that much.

It depends whether it's still in the community or not. It's not really in the community in Ireland, the new cases are generally in care homes and meat factories....and they must be limited to a small few of those because we are starting limited visits to nursing homes from today I think.

No one can spread it if they don't have it! If all those people on the beach had been in lockdown and covid free then it doesn't matter how many of them meet on the beach. They can't spread it!

Am assuming that daily new cases refers only to testing for active cases rather than historic ones (via detection of antibodies?)

Because I know lots of NHS who have tested positive for antibodies.

Even 36 deaths from Covid is far too many, regardless of how far the mortality rate has dropped. I won't relax until we're down to 0

Do you have the same attitude about all infectious diseases?

And if the death rate drops to zero, but then rises to 2 or 3 a week later, will you stop relaxing?

As there have been a lot of mass gatherings recently I think we'll have to wait to see if that has caused any increase in infection rates before we get too excited.

I can't help but think that if we had gone in to lockdown a week earlier, and waited a week or two more before easing restrictions we might already be way further forward with getting infection rates down than we actually are. A government advisor was on BBC news just the other day saying that if we'd gone into lockdown one week earlier it would have halved the number of deaths. But I do hope with all my heart that we don't see any rise in infections going forward.

What about those whom have no symptoms of covid? They don't get tested as not unwell.

There were only 22 deaths in New Zealand in total so no, I can't get any comfort from the fact there have been 36 deaths in the UK today.