Anti dementors not (second) waving but flouting

[Waleshasgonecompletelycrazy]

Welcome one and all. Bad days, good days...we're here for you all

@waleshasgonecompletelycrazy

I'm enjoying it but it's difficult

[quote Shodan]@trappedsincesundaymorn

@Dowser Sho Dan, I’m so sorry about your business opportunity.
I bet my osteopath will be the last to open.
You can’t get any closer than a masseuse can you?- Marginally- my business (should I ever get to start it up!) is to teach women self-defence, so much closeness is required!

@SpnBaby1967 - I've actually been doing some training in a field for the last 2 weeks, with my fellow black belts. It's better than nothing tbh. Also- it looks like you and I are going to take that Sandan journey together! I had decided not to go for it again (tried and failed twice) as the politics of our club and its 'governing body' (well known national martial arts body) enraged me so much. My instructor and the fellow black belts I train with atm consider me to be 3rd dan already, so that was enough for me-until I heard they were due to go for 4th dan (not my instructor, he's way past that!) and I suddenly thought "Well shit, I don't want to get left behind" so.... I'm going for it again .

Go us [/quote]
@Shodan I think my Sandan I'll aim for 2022 now. To much work to do (and we only grade once a year) and I dont think I can catch up enough. New kata to learn, new way of doing kihon basics and I wouldn't manage 5 minutes of continuous sparring let alone 20 minutes!

The next thread title perhaps. The Anti Dementors shout "Fuck off Ferguson"?

I think it would be a shame to male these threads just about people who disagree with lockdown in the first place rather than anti-dementor with the variety of other views we have now. But appreciate I’m in the minority here so won’t try to sway if that’s the way more people would prefer.

I don’t have a problem with Ferguson tbh. His group predicted UK would have 20K-50k deaths with lockdown in place, that seems about where we’re headed, okay.

You might have a point. I could just be taking out my rage on a convenient scapegoat. I don't know.

That's another stressful thing isn't it? The not knowing what to think? I had a "Oh Christ, say we're all wrong?" moment this morning after scanning the papers. Say this really is as impossible and pessimistic as they say it is?

@GoldenOmber

I don’t have a problem with Ferguson tbh. His group predicted UK would have 20K-50k deaths with lockdown in place, that seems about where we’re headed, okay. I do wish they had done this sooner though and it could have been over with much quicker. Three sodding months, Christ.

It feels to me like a lot of the public determination to stay in lockdown forever is because people feel like the government was strong-armed into it and needs to be strongarmed into staying there until... next year? when? Have heard several people say they’re not happy to come out of it until he government can handle everything competently, but ffs have they seen the current government? I am not prepared to stay in lockdown until the 2024 General Election!

If I trusted the government before I did anything I wouldn't do anything. Labour, tory or whatever are all feeling their way through this and not always succeeding.

Sorry all, I was just trying to lighten the mood. I don't really think we should march! It's just such a shit day and the image made me laugh

In March, he admitted that his Imperial College model of the COVID-19 disease was based on undocumented, 13-year-old computer code that was intended to be used for a feared influenza pandemic, rather than a coronavirus. Ferguson declined to release his original code so other scientists could check his results. He only released a heavily revised set of code in May, after a six-week delay.

I started reading a code review of what was eventually released after weeks of clean up.

Apparently it was a horror show and the model didn't return consistent or repeatable results.

@BlackberryViolet I think is a programmer, perhaps she could explain better.

But we have shut down society largely on the basis of a crap model, that has already proven wildly inaccurate, designed by a self-promoting catastrophist.

Meanwhile Sunetra Gupta's model stands up way better and she did not support lockdown.

But his was preferred. I wonder why 🤔

I’d love to hit the shops. But I’m worried it will be the same as garden centres now. I love a good garden centre, and specialist nursery - I’m garden obsessed. I was overjoyed when they reopened but now it’s just depressing. Shortages, empty shelves and tables, stuff not in stock, no cafe, no cake, follow the arrows, and wait for an hour to get in to find what you need is out of stock. We did 4 at the weekend. No compost in any of them. Or bamboo canes. Tried today to get one to deliver and nothing. Compost is the new bog roll. Not that I’d wipe my arse with compost but you know what I mean!

Oh and Ferguson can fuck off. I don’t believe any of the stats he comes out with

I think the weather has played a large part in my current despondency; it feels like we’ve cycled back round to the start of lockdown, when the weather was like this. For the last few weeks there’d been a feeling of rebellion in the air round here, with masses of people gathering in the parks with their take-out coffees / pizzas / beers from local businesses that were opening up again. But now everyone’s retreated indoors to avoid the rain, and we’re back to silent and grey. The announcement about schools took the wind out of my sails too. I’d been hoping against hope that my DCs would get to do even a few days before summer, and now that’s gone.

[quote Nihiloxica]@CruCru

Wow, a pensions actuary, what a fascinating expertise, especially now when risk and probability are everything.[/quote]
Ha ha, that’s really nice of you. If I’m honest, I think that my knowledge of mortality rates and mortality projections is now a bit out of date (particularly now).

Well I have followed the rules up to now. Dad seemingly doesn’t know what day it is 😂🤔

Anti-Dementors Denounce Utility Shopping.

I think it will be very, very difficult for governments and general public to say “lockdown was unnecessary/not worth it” if it turns out that’s the case. Governments especially truly shit at saying “we called that wrong” - see move from now no lockdown and let the virus work through to we absolutely need a lockdown without any acknowledgement it was a change of plan.

And this might have been the wrong thing to do I dunno. Seems like Sweden had more deaths than they could have done by locking down, but also less than everyone predicted they would get. 🤷‍♀️

His group predicted UK would have 20K-50k deaths with lockdown in place

That presumes that we wouldn't have had those figures without lockdown.

It's all a bit too Tiger Stone for my liking.

Wales - a few years ago it was said 48% of the population were public servants. Could be more now. Can you now see why we are caged up for longer?

Anti dementors pee in Lidl’s toilet

One of my favourite moments was about 6-7 weeks into this-still in the essential travel phase, I'd been shopping at the supermarkets and decided to go the "long" way home (normally 2 miles) and instead went the opposite direction up the empty dual carriageway, windows open, warm sunny breeze in my hair, and back round the country lanes.
A lovely window of momentary escape.

But I don't know how to get that hit now, and the weather isn't co-operating.

I can freely go out... for another wet walk...

We will get our spark back. I think just the combination of weather, time, disappointment on schools and lack of progress of meaningful changes have come together to hit many of us around the same time. And we need a little time to work through this dip and emerge out of the other side of it.

I haven't completely caught up on the thread but having done 'craft' this morning we're about to go for our 'bastard walk' (think it was Spnbaby who posted that earlier and it made me laugh because that's what we're doing today). Anyway, I'm quite chipper this morning. I don't know why as it's so grey and I've just had a disagreement with my mother regarding Neil Feguson. I hope everyone feels more positive later. It's a truly depressing state of affairs if you think too much about it.

This might give some of you a smile though. DS is writing a book. Last night in his reading to himself time he carried on writing. When I came up to turn the lights off he was writing it lying on the floor under his duvet so I said he didn't look very comfy. He responded that he didn't want to get biro on his sheets so he went in my bed first and got biro on that so felt it'd be best if he went on the floor in his own room instead. So now there is biro somewhere on my new Harry Potter bedding but luckily his old bedding is fine!

@justasking111 - I was in the public service until recently. The thing I am most proud of is the safeguarding work I was involved in. I found it a real privilege to help people in really difficult situations. Sometimes people just needed to be believed and I could do that. I've been surprised that some education professionals (very much the minority I'm sure) seem to almost say it's not really their job. I was taught that as I was front facing it was absolutely my job and I welcomed that.

I think it will be very, very difficult for governments and general public to say “lockdown was unnecessary/not worth it” if it turns out that’s the case.

Indeed, and it creates an incentive for spinning this out for ages.

The absolute power you must feel to be able to announce on telly that you are going to kindly allow people to visit their own mother or have sex with your own boyfriend seems to be pretty intoxicating.

They'll keep that going as long as they can.

The Norwegians have said that they think closing schools was a mistake.

When the lockdown deaths are accounted for, I think Sweden's death toll is going to look pretty good.

I think the weather has played a large part in my current despondency; it feels like we’ve cycled back round to the start of lockdown, when the weather was like this. For the last few weeks there’d been a feeling of rebellion in the air round here, with masses of people gathering in the parks with their take-out coffees / pizzas / beers from local businesses that were opening up again. But now everyone’s retreated indoors to avoid the rain, and we’re back to silent and grey.

Yes, the change in the weather has really fucked up my mood too. The ability to get out every day for a wander with the kids, buy an ice-cream, play out in the garden, was keeping my head above water. Now it's gone and I'm either stuck in the house or dragging reluctant children out in the rain. It's fucking shit.

Anti-dementors riding the roller coasters

I’m feeling a bit better this week because I’m finally on leave for a little bit. All our leave got cancelled earlier so we could all work flat out on Covid. Now things are looking a bit better on that we are allowed to have some days off again woohoo.

It has been weird feeling positive about my work getting better, because cases and deaths and dropping and things are looking better and better, and then look at Facebook and see my friends who’ve been on furlough the whole time going “no there’s definitely going to be a second wave, I know someone whose sister’s partner works at a hospital and they’ve been told, it’s going to be so horrible and we won’t know what hit us.” Oh okay then, sorry for feeling happy about things improving after actually working on this stuff, what do I know eh. (But I am not On The Front Lines so don’t count.)

@TheGreatWave

Odd thing is likely to take as much effort to actually get them back out the bath.

Same here, what is that all about?

I think it's just effort and change of location whines.

When kids were young there were loads of small parks where we lived - in fact to stay sane in summer I'd plan a tour round them - factoring in loos and shops - but end of the day we'd end up in biggest park near home and they'd want the loo or a drink or food -having consumed everything packed - but absolutely refuse to leave the park to get them but still demand them.

Used to drive me nuts and even promising to come back didn't work.

Anti-Dementors Denounce Utility Shopping

I do like this suggestion.

think the weather has played a large part in my current despondency; it feels like we’ve cycled back round to the start of lockdown, when the weather was like this

Like summer been and gone like it seemed to do years ago.

I think next week is supposed to be sunny DH is planning barbeque having finally managed to get some charcoal - it will just be us in the house but something different thinking of a morriosn BBQ Food Box.

Just checked thhy still do them and found they do father day boxes and craft beer boxes now.

Anti-dementors riding the roller coasters

Like that one too - sums up the highs and lows as well.