Patronii in person, anti Dementors visit the zoo

[ISaySteadyOn]

Never started a long running thread before but I figure even lurkers should take a turn. Hope the title ok.

This is another article that was linked.

www.rt.com/op-ed/490006-death-certificates-covid-19-do-not-trust/?fbclid=IwAR2vfDBgyuEissvU6mGDdwkyV-QnUOqqTI5W74JpxvK6JK_Quxh9pLrybYM

A friend's dd is going back to yr 6 next week, she has to wear uniform and has grown since March and it no longer fits. Next year uniform is a different colour, luckily I had some old ones that I have been able to lend her - it was ridiculous to expect people to buy new for such a short period of time.

Can anyone explain the r number to me? If infections and deaths are falling, how can r be rising? I don’t understand it.

Basically the r number is made up. It is made up in a very academic way using real number inputs and some highly intelligent formula that has been written by a professor, but it is still made up.

Like all models (I’m an economist btw) it has some truth but also limitations. When the infection rate is high it is potentially really helpful, but apply it to an area like the south west with low figures and it will return nonsense as it has.

The north west r figure is possibly more of a worry but it is one area that is probably a bit further behind the curve. A rare just above 1 is not going to lead to hospitals being immediately overwhelmed and everyone dying as the dementors suggest. Instead it will just gradually drop. But in any case it is made up and is a model so a number that is just above 1 according to the daily mail may actually be below.

And the rest of the country is below, hence the numbers are coming down.

We need to be really careful about this ‘r’ it is something dementors will jump on with glee the second it goes above 1 on some island somewhere (where 1 person had it and passed it to her husband and child)

I'm in the South West, seeing people on my social media squawking about R number.

Today we discovered a swing in the woods, DD (11) swung on it shrieking with excitement. I also sat on a bench and ate ice cream.

R is the average number of people they each person infects. So if it rises from .7 to .8 that's still less than one so the numbers with Covid still fall (just not quite so fast). R tells you nothing about the rate of infection, only the rate of change

Found out today that the R number is based on three week old data. Well that is not so helpful in the case of covid.

Don’t know if they’ve been mentioned yet but there have been a couple of interesting articles over the past couple of days (one in the Telegraph yesterday) saying we reached our peak infection rate on around the 18th March... 5 days before lockdown was imposed. Which suggests the early measures (no large gatherings, self isolation with symptoms, social distancing, hand washing, working from home where possible but no restrictions on family life) were enough to halt the spread of the virus.

Also i imagine r in care homes and hospitals is high...in the community not so much. Noticeable how this question is always dodged at brieings!

If, at its most basic, R is a measure of how many others an infected person infects, it makes sense to me that it will go up at this stage.
I'm not a statistician, but, if the majority of infections now are in care homes etc. an infected worker surely stands a lot more chance of infecting quite a few 95 year old with dementia. Whereas an infected coach at a junior football club, for example, outside and full of fit young people, would have to practically spit on the them and hold a hand over their mouths until they swallowed in order 5o infect them. So R might be 10 in the card home and 0.00001 in the football club
I know it's more complex than that, but small numbers distort data.
I work in the food industry and complaints are typically given as complaints per million units, as just saying 10 complaints as a count, doesn't really tell you if it's a massive issue, or nothing to worry about.
However, if you have a new product, or one that is discontinued but still selling through in the shops, using CPMU can look as if you have a serious problem, when, in fact, it could be just a couple of complaints.

@bakewelltarts yes absolutely

if the majority of infections now are in care homes etc. an infected worker surely stands a lot more chance of infecting quite a few 95 year old with dementia. Whereas an infected coach at a junior football club, for example, outside and full of fit young people, would have to practically spit on the them and hold a hand over their mouths until they swallowed in order 5o infect them. So R might be 10 in the card home and 0.00001 in the football club

And bizarrely enough the care home is operating as normal but the football club is shut down 🤷🏻‍♀️🤔

They need to pay care workers ££££££ to live in for a few months. It would surely be cheaper than furlough.

[quote HarimadSol]@Cattermole I first read it when I was 13, and many times since then.[/quote]
I don't think I would have been able to write my books if it hadn't been for Robin McKinley. She writes real horses, doesn't she?
I loved "Sunshine" but in a different way. And I did not like "Deerskin" at all. It chilled me.

Jesus H. I think I have now seen it all.
Our local rag online featured an article about an older man found dead in a static caravan.
A number of the comments have already jumped to the conclusion that he was a holidaymaker and, I infer from the absolute horror of some of the responses, that he deserved to die.
Dear Christ there is a special place in hell for these people.

Cattermole was that one if the quality Cornish publications?

Dear Christ there is a special place in hell for these people.

There are usually foul comments in lots of places, there is a proportion of really foul human beings. Sadly covid had legitimised this or fortunately covid has shown people in their true colours. I go for the latter

BBC news at the moment - reinforcing the new reality that the only deaths which matter are Covid deaths

BBC news at the moment - reinforcing the new reality that the only deaths which matter are Covid deaths

Is it wrong that I felt a stab of anger when the BBC goes on about everyone writing online tributes for those who died of covid? what about my beloved mum? she died of cancer. 165,000 people die of cancer every bloody year- thats over 4 times the amount of people who have died of covid yet noone is suggesting we get some form of memorial writing portal for those people, because of COURSE, only covid deaths matter dont they? I dont begrudge the grieving relatives of course, but death is death and the world didnt stop and acknowledge my grief like they are currently doing now. Where was my memorial?

Exactly, Alexis, it's insane. You'd think no-one had ever died before.

I agree my mum’s dead too, it’s shit . Most deaths even at the peak weren’t covid.

I always get irrationally angry when matt wanksock says "we still have so much to do..."
Fuck off. We have done enough. It's your turn now.

This.

Popped over to a nearby village to get a takeaway (it's the only Thai in the area, its really good and if opened yesterday, sod McDonald's, I have my own priorities). I was amazed and cheered by the amount of people out rock climbing (amazed mainly due to the amount of fresh rockfall after the rain and they were still climbing!).
I am awaiting the "Don't they know the hospital is closed, they are inevitably going to fall, spread a miasma of coronavirus during their decent, wiping out the entire village, and then overwhelm the hospitals in Bristol single handedly, as that's where they will end up" Facebook posts tomorrow.

I'm so sorry Alexis and Tea 💐

Exactly, Alexis, it's insane. You'd think no-one had ever died before

Right? and I would only ever make that comment here because I feel safe enough to vent about it and not be misunderstood. Of course I have enormous empathy for those who have lost loved ones to covid but LOTS of us have lost loved ones and lots of us have grieved and are grieving but it really feels like if you lost someone to something other than covid then you're on your own and nobody cares or wants to know.
Its horribly cold.

My brother in law died in early April. Not of covid though so his death is irrelevant. Mind you he was only 52 and leaves behind my young nephew so thats not how I see it. Oh and my sister is finding grief and being a single mum in lockdown incredibly hard. Good job I am taking my own view of the rules and supporting her as much as I can.

@Allflightscancelled thank you

@bakewelltarts I'm so sorry- thats so young to die

Dh said I don’t think we will get south this year, usually do a week in dorset , and one in wales..twice
After speaking to my cousins dh, ex cop, dementor central, thinks we need another 6 months hard lockdown.

Ridiculous