To those who keep saying the “economy will recover”

[Sadie789]

And who think focusing on the economy is “money over lives”.

Please can you explain to me why you are so relaxed about this, because it affects every one of us.

This won’t be a UK recession, it will be an unprecedented global recession.

People already have lost their jobs and will continue to lose their jobs long after lockdown is over. Well into next year.

If you lose your job you need to claim UC. UC is paid for with taxes. From people who are earning money in jobs.

Taxes also pay for the NHS. Not just the NHS that is treating COVID patients. The NHS treating cancer patients, kidney patients, heart patients, brain patients. The NHS that also keeps thousands of private companies afloat as they sub services and procure resources from them.

Tax pays for just about everything else we take for granted in our daily lives from housing for millions to keeping rubbish from overflowing our streets to keeping the street lights on.

Let’s put the wider issue of how the economy runs to the side and look at individual livelihoods. People say you should have savings to cover emergencies such as these current rainy days. But this rain is unprecedented and affects us all.

DH and I have about £16000 in savings. We both work in roles that are looking very uncertain right now. If we both lose our jobs those savings will last us about 4 months realistically. If only one of us does it will last 8 months. Til the end of this year more or less. When our industries will both still be in an uncertain state of flux. Just get another job you say? What, like thousands of others in the same boat?

When the savings run out what do we do? We’d have to sell the house. There’s some equity in there but it will go down dramatically as house prices drop. Who will buy our house? If we do sell, we will need a mortgage to buy a new one - who gives mortgages to two unemployed people. Could we rent? The equity would soon run out and then who pays for the roof over our heads? So on, and so on.

The economy is about money and greed I hear people say. Lives are more important. Yes they are. But the people saying this in the context of a blase “the economy will recover”, I genuinely want to know why you think an economic depression will not affect lives?

Only the rich are worried about businesses going under is another one I hear.

Let’s see. My neighbour has his own company doing lighting and rigging for theatres. His wife has a wedding dress shop. No one is paying them furlough. They are both terrified.

Around me are a fishmonger who supplied hotels and restaurants. A nursery owner. A pub owner. A mortgage advisor. A friend is a pilot, his wife cabin crew. Another has been running a small childrenswear shop for 22 years and says this will be her last month as she’s bought thousands of pounds of stock (last year) for summer that she has to pay for along with the rent etc. Her business is finished. My hairdressers have shut up shop for good. Our main shopping centre has lost Debenhams, Oasis, Warehouse, all in a month.

Please tell me - this is a genuine question - how you can be so nonchalant about the economy if that is what you truly believe?

I think OP you've forgotten to include rampant inflation in your doomsday scenario, if the Gov choose to lighten their debt by printing money rather than going for austerity.
Mortgages could become very expensive indeed. We are balancing staying in business by bankrolling the company or paying off our mortgage and retiring...but we are thinking about these things and we have options - many will not. And talking about retiring, pension funds will not be looking healthy at the moment - so anyone considering retiring soon with defined contribution pension will not be a in a great place..

The birds are still singing and plants are growing.

I like that @TiddleTaddleTat

God could you imagine if Brexit actually saves us .

I agree, I think we are up shit creek without a paddle.
And it's ok to say well, it's good if less planes fly but that means worldwide millions of airline manufacturers, airlines, cabin crew unemployed.
It's ok to say buy less crap from China but that means millions of chinese with no jobs. That's a bit scary as there are so many of them.
And if all the airline staff and many Chinese have no jobs then they have no money to use your services or buy your goods. So less jobs for us.
Anyone who bought a house in the lats year or two risks losing a lot of the value. So negative equity might be a big issue. With so many out of work there will be fewer to buy houses.
All those with buy to let properties with tenants who can't afford the rent. So I guess many will be put on the market.
Fewer foreign students paying high fees Possibly unis closing. Fewer uk students if parents can't pay the fees.
A drop in private pensions if companies reduce dividend payments due to less profit. And on and on and on.
It's a real unknown situation. We need a new, clever brain to come along and say this is what we need to do.

Nearly 30,000 covid deaths in the UK and over 1200 hospitals...you do the maths..bearing in mind not all the deaths are in hospital...yet hospitals are overrun?

25 deaths per hospital from the start of the pandemic until now?! I didn't think of it like that . WTF

Haven't read most of this. I don't think people have a clue what is coming. 'Hope the govt. start funding the NHS' mentality. 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 with what? Rainbow posters.

Not all hospitals have ITUs though...Certainly around here - most of the hospitals seem deskilled...you don;t go there unless you have very minor worries.

Is this collective denial of the impending economic crisis, part of the collective joy in being associated with something big and remarkable similar to a war- like a where were you when it happened? There's a trade off between current health and future health and that lies in ability to pay for future health aka a healthy economy. Belief in a quick recovery doesn't come from just positive thinking, if only - it's a gradual and growing belief and trust in the ability for the economy to recover and we have Boris in charge - draw your own conclusions.😩

I was so worried about the 2007 credit crunch when we had to bail out the banks, but that seemed to work out fine

The way the govt have magicked up money for furlough etc when apparently there isn't a magic money tree, I'm starting to think that money isn't real and governments can just print it when when they need it.

For example, we've had a homeless problem for forever but when Corona came they were able to house people practically overnight

So I actually am not worried about a recession/depression

“I’m sure many would like to try, some income might help pay the rent and suppliers who can’t wait. In addition you are right there are some businesses that can’t social distance they still need to restart, we won’t all die tomorrow when they do.”

Yeah places are desperate to add staffing costs in as well

Yeah places are desperate to add staffing costs in as well yes far better to be shut and earning nothing- especially family run businesses. With the greatest of respect no business is thinking “thank god I’ve been forced to close”.

“With the greatest of respect no business is thinking “thank god I’ve been forced to close”.“

Plenty are actually - in that it gives a bit of time without having to lay their staff off. It’s much better than trying to keep operating with not enough customers.

Not all hospitals have ITUs though

Yes of course...some hospitals will have had far more covid deaths than others...the deaths won't be evenly spread out obviously. Just making the point that I don't believe the nhs is overwhelmed to the extent that the collateral damage of the lockdown is worth it.

Well that's tricky. If the NHS is not overwhelmed then it's evidence that a lockdown to prevent the nhs from being overwhelmed is not needed? How does that work?

If the NHS is not overwhelmed then it's evidence that a lockdown to prevent the nhs from being overwhelmed is not needed?

Lockdown prevented the NHS from becoming overwhelmed. 30,615 deaths currently. One can imagine what the death rate would have been without closing things down. And we aren't out of the woods yet. Current rate of infection is between 0.5-0.9. We all know what above 1 means. Trouble.

It really did (does) have to be a careful balance between saving lives and the economy.

you haven’t heard of the Great Depression?

I think you've answered your own question. It isn't unprecedented and we will recover (shares already are).

tabulahrasa
Some businesses may be grateful for the furlough scheme- wait till that reduces from 80%- but no they aren’t happy to be closed.
I heard of a pub whose rent is 16k a month- that still needs to be paid- their staff bill will not be 16k a month!

Lockdown prevented the NHS from becoming overwhelmed. 30,615 deaths currently yes but how many deaths will be caused from shutting services down, there is a tipping point where lock down will cause more deaths than the virus. Why it’s deemed better to die from undetected cancer than Covid is beyond me.

Ultimately life will go on, but it will crap for ages. As it is said, just suck it up buttercup!!!

“I heard of a pub whose rent is 16k a month- that still needs to be paid- their staff bill will not be 16k a month!“

You’d be surprised tbh...

But most pubs rely on being packed on weekends...lots that do food are still open, or opening soon doing takeaway and deliveries, the rest... well most will go under apart from large chains.

@StCharlotte think you've answered your own question. It isn't unprecedented and we will recover (shares already are) really pleased to hear that you have seen shares recovered already from COVID but where are you getting that info from, is it sector specific - because the Ftse has not recovered to pre Covid levels - am I looking at the wrong graphs?.Or do you mean that shares from the 1930s have recovered??!!

I agree with OP and I am also a realist.
I am very worried. My salary has been cut and no bonus expected but I am worried about having a job in a few months time. Although my company never closed there are hardly any orders.
And I have DD at university who lost her part-time job already. I am advising my Y12 DC to take a gap year as HE will be greatly affected.
Those of my friends who work for global banks and have job security are happy to stay in lock down all summer. Friends who work for small businesses are very worried about their jobs.

Why it’s deemed better to die from undetected cancer than Covid is beyond me.

Those services shouldn't have stopped but this does seem to vary by area. My area is still conducting diagnostics and it's quicker than normal due to emptier hospital. I will add though that cancer is, generally, a medium to longterm illness (always exceptions). Covid is faster acting when acute and affects more people in a very short period of time so, yes, it had to be prioritised in the short-term.

And, of course, there will deaths based on the longterm economic impact but there was no choice except to lock down. The UK is not unique in this--in fact, we were criticised for not locking down sooner.

I don't feel we should stay locked down for months but I do think we need to persevere a few more weeks.

I agree OP. I think a lot of people are being very short sighted.

When taxes go up, state pensions and benefits are cut, public services are cut and there is massive unemployment people will look back and wish the lockdown had been ended sooner.

It's only easy to say we should reduce lockdown if you haven't lost a close family member.
Any gov risks being branded cruel, putting money before health and wellbeing, if it doesn't appear to be putting lives first.
Keir Starmer was demanding a plan in place to save the economy when he first spoke, that seems to have been toned down already.