What do people think is most likely to happen with the irish/UK Border Part 2.

[cathyclown]

OK I took it upon myself in my arrogance. Nah, just enjoyed all the views whether we agreed or not, it has been very interesting.

So carry on folks. Link below to the original thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/in_the_news/a3096781-What-do-people-think-is-most-likely-to-happen-with-the-Irish-UK-border?msgid=73760649#73760649

Well done cathy, just in time

Leo obviously had a very good meeting with Donald Tusk.

My message from Dublin: Ni neart go cur le cheile. There is no strength without unity. Nie ma siły bez jedności.

twitter.com/donaldtusk/status/936648747630592000

While I am pleased that the Irish govt is standing its ground and that the EU are behind it, like the others, I can't see a good outcome for anyone on the cards. Which is why the Irish are standing their ground: we are going to be the most negatively impacted by Brexit outside the UK.

Reversing Brexit is the only thing that is not going to have a terrible impact for the people of NI one way or the other. Unless someone has a very cunning plan over the weekend...

Place marking

Thank you Cathy for the new thread.

Place marking

I'm a bit troubled by the number of people I've read who appear to think that Varadkar is threatening violence, as though the Irish state has ever been controlling or directing the IRA or any republican paramilitary organisation. It seems very serious to me that so many appear to consider that to be a realistic and honest representation.

I wonder if the likes of Gusty Spence and David Ervine were still around would the DUP still have the support they have. Although they both had serious histories, I really think that they both were and David Ervine in particular, a force for progress in the end. Is there no one like them around in NI anymore?

Leo obviously had a very good meeting with Donald Tusk.

According to C4, Ireland gets a formal veto over whether Brexit proceeds to the second stage of negotiations (I thought Ireland already had this?)

Yeah, but hasn't there been a lot of talk about Ireland bring reined in by EU masters if the financial side was settled? Perhaps this is just to deny that speculation.

I just read some more, apparently the veto was implied before, but not formalised (because the Irish border was one of the things that had to be resolved to move to phase 2)

I agree though, after May said we'd pay whatever the EU calculated that we owe there was a lot of people assuming that this would mean we'd progress to phase 2.

If anyone is interested, Any Questions on R4 is coming from Newry tonight, well right now actually.

Nigel Dodds, DUP, Kate Hoey Labour.

Mairtin O'Muilleoir Sinn Fein and Fintan O'Toole Irish Times columnist.

Could be interesting.

Hoey has just said Ireland should start negotiating for the good of everyone! Whoa. What about your own side Kate.

It's telling on the BBC news website that today's Brexit and border news isn't on the most read stories, and 9 or 10 stories down on the latest news page. It's like it's not even registering as news. It is top of the bill on the NI regional page.

Ireland doesn't have to negotiate . It's nothing to do with Ireland making a decision, it's up to the UK to negotiate its borders with the EU.

I think there are many people who think "Ireland is a small country, the UK is leaving the EU, we can tell them how we will do it" - which obviously the UK can. It can tell Ireland to fuck off, it can tell the EU to fuck off, it can refuse to negotiate on the border issue and simply leave.

Of course it will leave with no trade deal at all, and since it hasn't yet had time to negotiate trade deals (outside of those that have been agreed as part of the EU), it's going to have either sort some out (they usually take a long time) or become entirely self-sufficient by the beginning of 2019, which seems unlikely.

And apparently now my children are grown (and out) I'm not allowed to watch the LLTS. We are watching rugby. In Irish

That won't be allowed once our DUP overlords are in charge!

Maryz,

the secret to a great relationship is two living rooms and two TVs.

Or just two TVs in separate areas!

I will vote for the DUP (if they come down here) if they will guarantee that kids won't have to study Irish in school.

We have two separate TV areas. One is approximately the temperature of a tropical jungle, the other marginally colder than the Arctic.

Guess where the rugby is?

And just realised the rugby is over.

I have the remote

Well it seems there's one vote for the DUP in Ireland anyhow, which will be a surprise for them!!

Joining the new thread, thanks Cathy.

Hoping not to have to watch Any Questions, did anyone else??

Things will move on quickly over the next few days.

I bet there is a plan. There has to be. Britain, sorry UK could not be that silly.

But who knows. Hubris is a dangerous thing. Take note.

Thank you Cathy!

At this stage I think we would also see a return to significant Loyalist violence (as they would know that it was the end game for them), also with probably no real reciprocation from the IRA as they will play the long game and know that it would not help their cause ultimately.
Bearstrikesback from the previous thread.

I think the Loyalist violence would involve a significant amount of infighting but also provocative terrorist attacks on 'non-combatant' NI citizens like schools or congregations, weddings, significant funerals, etc ('non-combatant' as opposed to attacks on paramilitaries on the other side) with the aim being to provoke the Provos into retaliation, or to provoke breakaway Republican paramilitaries into action, which might happen if the Provos don't bite.

I can see support for a united Ireland growing in Ireland if such a tack was taken. I can also see international support developing, and support in the form of buying Irish government bonds if a referendum in NI were to lead to some sort of all-island state emerging (whether federal or unitary).

Federal being the equivalent of 'a TV in every room'.

www.bbc.com/news/business-42199262
BBC - comments by Roberto Azevedo, WTO director general on how hard a hard Brexit would hit the UK.

Higher prices and shortages after a hard Brexit may make many UK shoppers wish they lived in Ireland.