What do people think is most likely to happen with the irish/UK Border Part 2.

[cathyclown]

OK I took it upon myself in my arrogance. Nah, just enjoyed all the views whether we agreed or not, it has been very interesting.

So carry on folks. Link below to the original thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/in_the_news/a3096781-What-do-people-think-is-most-likely-to-happen-with-the-Irish-UK-border?msgid=73760649#73760649

x-posted with you, cathy.

Yes, leaving it to the last minute and advertising that it's all going to be sorted by phone is pathetic.

Was listening to Yanis Varoufakis on Bloomberg.

Whether you like him or not, he has at least put forward a proposal. A five year moratorium after 2019, including temporary EEA status. Gives everyone time to draw a breath and organise things properly. I enjoyed the interview. Well he is a dish isn't he. Maybe that's just me though. ha ha.

www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2017-11-29/varoufakis-on-brexit-negotiations-ireland-greece-video

It's just deferring a decision. Eventually someone will have to have the political balls to grasp the nettle.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Partition_of_Ireland
What happens when the can is kicked down the road and Westminster lacks political will.

Britain’s ignorance of Ireland is leading it blindly into crisis by Naomi O’Leary.

bellacaledonia.org.uk/2017/12/03/a-wake-up-call/

That is a great, but profoundly depressing article. In fact, I think she's been reading these threads, especially the facts she's been trying to get across:

"That many people along the border don’t recognise it as legitimate. That people’s houses and farms are built on top of it. That people’s lives are lived straddling it. That Northern Ireland is in a delicate post-conflict situation, is the poorest part of the UK, and is set to be economically worst hit by Brexit. That paramilitaries are still active, still recruiting, and many would love a chance for glory. That a majority in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. That the entire Brexit saga has been a long morality play demonstrating to those with qualms about Northern Ireland’s place in the UK that Britian knows little about the province, and cares less.

I explain that the options are either to have an open border, or a deeply dysfunctional border that is probably violent and definitely a smugglers’ paradise. This border has about 300 crossings over its 300 miles. It is the deeply impractical result of political logic, designed in the 1920s in the interests of preserving a unionist majority within its confines. That in the worst years of the troubles, a fifth of the British Army’s manpower in Northern Ireland was dedicated to trying to police the border, and they were unable to do it."

There is more, but that's the bit that May and the British government don't seem to understand.

A peaceful land border is not possible.

Jacob Rees Mogg is the guy to listen to hear - and like I said in the other thread, it's up to the EU to choose whether to put a border in or not

if they choose, then the onus is on them and gradually Ireland will realise that the EU does not give one toss about them

Martina,

I'm afraid it is the UK that needs to put up a border if they want to keep the pesky EU and non EU immigrants out. A firm plank of Brexit I thought?

Ireland doesn't care, all are welcome, EU, UK and non EU - with a visa. Where they go after landing in Ireland is not our problem. All are welcome!

I think there will be a mutual regulatory framework that will ensure free movement of goods cross border.

So the only issue is the UK and free movement. Solely their issue.

And Martina I think Donald Tusk made it abundantly clear this week that the EU cares about Ireland.

Martina you won't find a single person in ROI who does not currently place all responsibility for this mess at the UK's door.

Whatever the result, the Irish will hold the UK responsible for the consequences, not the EU.

So Rees Mogg can say what he likes, I'm sure he'll convince the British red tops, but quite frankly he's the last person on the planet likely to convince the Irish.

The Irish feel strongly supported by their EU fellow members. They feel shafted by the Brits (and what the fuck else is new, right?). The RM argument holds not a drop of sway across the entire country.

Nice try.

it's up to the EU to choose whether to put a border in or not

Bollocks. If the UK have an open border in NI with the EU, they have to have an open border with the globe under WTO rules.

This was stated on the other thread, yet Brexiteers continue to gaslight this sort of nonsense.

Martina have you read the article cathy just linked to? As for J R-M, doesn't he think there's going to be a presidential election leading to a new government in Ireland? Arse.

Are you still saying that the UK is happy to have free movement of people from the EU? I presume you will be opening up the border posts at Calais?

Surely at this stage you should know something

I have just realised that Martina is taking her facts from The Express

I presumed it was a spoof article

JRM was on the Marr show today saying a general election was imminent in Ireland because of the vote of no confidence in the deputy. He said the Irish government were pandering to Sinn Fein because of this. Neither of these things are true. I wouldn't trust anything he says on brexit when he is obviously incapable of even keeping up with the news of a country we are currently negotiating with, especially when those negotiations concern something he is passionate about.

The EU and Ireland are not separate. Ireland is IN the EU and has been for 43 years. Of course 'the EU' care about 'Ireland', they are the same thing! As is the UK and the EU, at the moment. The EU as it is is as much a UK creation as it is anybody else's.

I think they must be putting something in the water in Westminster, it's like a sort of insanity that the Brexiteers keep peddling this desperate rubbish. JRM still wants to be PM so he has to keep up this front, as well as throwing in a bit of divide and conquer too.

Cathy:

We've been through this already - ie. there will be an ID check when heading to UK mainland

mineall:

EU only cares about Ireland if Ireland plays ball and suits the EU's interests

just wait for the EU to force Ireland to lose those nice cheap corporate tax deals, guess that will prob force Micheal O'leary to set up shop in Sunderland or something

We've been through this already - ie. there will be an ID check when heading to UK mainland

Why on earth should people in N Ireland have to have a passport to travel to another part of the country that they actually live in?

www.ft.com/content/1ce27838-d370-11e7-8c9a-d9c0a5c8d5c9

More delusions on the Irish border: Simply ignoring the boundary is not an idea that would work in the real world.

It's quite shocking seeing British politicians telling blatant lies and not being challenged, isn't it?

Ifailed:

nonsense, there is actually a similar non-border set up alreadey

ie. Switzerland/Germany etc., Norway/Sweden

Croatia/Bulgaria etc.

MaryZ:

freedom of movement must end, that's why we voted Leave

but there'll still be free movement for Irish

EU and non-Eu will be checked, so yes, there will be a border for those coming from Calais

treaclesoda wrote:' Why on earth should people in N Ireland have to have a passport to travel to another part of the country that they actually live in?'

It's an ID check that you have to do nearly all the time anyway, such as boarding a domestic flight, opening a bank account, staying at a hotel etc..

no big deal, just business as usual here

Pete North‏ (and he's a Leaver).

1. There's a fair few people confidently asserting that the Norway-Sweden border is not frictionless. This is not strictly true. It does have unmanned crossings. They are treated as customs green lanes. It is illegal to use them when carrying goods that need to be declared.

1. Norwegian Customs has for several years used pole-mounted ANPR cameras at unstaffed crossings in the south-east. It is in the process of installing ANPR at all vehicle border crossings by 2020. ANPR is effective in seizure cases - typical contraband - drugs/booze etc.

1. Even at manned crossings there are green lanes you can use if the paperwork has all been prefiled. A lot of it is electronic but what is not mentioned is that it's pretty archaic stuff which is the main reason for the current volumes of spot checks.

1. The ANPR systems are dataloggers and not all of them are wired into the network. This can cause enforcement delays. A lot of the delays could be removed by a modernisation process. NI road assets though are already wired in.

1. The point being that Norwegian borders could be, with investment, entirely frictionless without having a customs union. Same applies to NI. ROO checks etc are more involved than a border post could ever usefully manage. Consequently this depends on a system of preclearance.

1. Any additional paperwork caused by leaving the CU would have to be added to the behind-the-border processes - which is not the headache people make it out to be. But if you need the spelling out, it is the single market which is instrumental to frictionless borders, not the CU

1. So this is less a matter of what is possible as to what is politically tolerable. It would seem in the case of NI that any customs equipment will be vandalised and destroyed. Unless you are willing to add secondary layer of security then it's not happening.

1. Moreover, one expects that any engineers even attempting to install such technology would be in serious danger. We are therefore looking at a formal customs agreement with NI specific regime. I can't see how that doesn't mean a differing regime with checks at mainland seaport

1. Whether or not the NI folks will wear that is another matter. Probably not, because people are wonderfully awkward and will frustrate even the most reasonable and inconsequential system. It's only going to work if the whole of the UK stays in the EEA.

10. What we are best doing, for the time being, is putting NI into a diplomatic quarantine with an expiry date set for ten years hence (which is about as long as it will take to develop the systems). Then wait for the NI assembly to get its act together and devolve it.