What do people think is most likely to happen with the irish/UK Border Part 2.

[cathyclown]

OK I took it upon myself in my arrogance. Nah, just enjoyed all the views whether we agreed or not, it has been very interesting.

So carry on folks. Link below to the original thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/in_the_news/a3096781-What-do-people-think-is-most-likely-to-happen-with-the-Irish-UK-border?msgid=73760649#73760649

No problem Kofa. It was a bit of an eye-opener to reread about the population drop around that period. My aging brain had forgotten a lot!

understand a population of 1.7 million cannot hold the other 63 million people responsible for their problems

By the same logic, then, the 17 million who voted to leave in the referendum can't hold the other 48 million to their wishes.

Problem solved!

There is a thread in AIBU at the moment where the OP has asked for people's favourite British accent. A number of posters are saying 'Dublin', 'Southern Irish' etc. Even when I pointed out that those aren't British accents, someone else replied that they're the British Isles.

The lack of respect towards Ireland as a country is breathtaking.

There are workable solutions. Free movement of people isn't really an issue and free movement of goods could be dealt with by trusted trader status and other schemes. All of Ireland staying in the same agricultural regulations would also be required.
Westminister doesn't really care about a hard border but it does really want lots else from the EU which the EU won't give without a commitment to no hard border.

Free movement of people isn't really an issue
For whom? Has it not occurred to you that the EU doesn't want to be swamped by a load of brits fleeing the low-wage economy, and I can't see UKIP and the other Brexiteers welcoming an open border that would allow those nasty E Europeans to enter.

free movement of goods could be dealt with by trusted trader status and other schemes

under WHO rules, we would have to open our borders up to all goods from around the globe if we allowed an open border with the EU in Ireland.

Free movement of people isn't really an issue

It has to be an issue, otherwise anyone from any area of the EU could move freely into the UK by entering Ireland first. Which is pretty much the reason why the UK voted to leave the EU.

As in the free movement of people seemed to be the main reason for most people who voted to leave the EU.

I thought the whole point of brexit was to 'take back control of the border' keep out those nasty migrants doing all the jobs we don't want to do anyway

'All of Ireland staying in the same agricultural regulations would also be required'

I do think most NI farmers would happily do this but who is going to check that the consignment labelled as NI produce and known to be compliant is just that, without a hard border? And who's going to check that NI farmers are actually sticking to the rules - EU inspectors? British inspectors trained and certified by the EU?

The question at the moment is also whether the DUP will allow anything that differentiates NI from the other provinces if the UK, apart from women's rights.

"apart from women's rights" - what a depressing (and accurate) way of putting it. It's impressive that they manage to blindfold themselves so completely that they can see that on this issue they have quite a lot in common with Ireland [sigh]

The prevention of movement of people does not require a hard border. Refusing employment rights and access to social welfare can be done by legislation and there are easier ways of smuggling illegal EU migrant into the UK than through Ireland. Overstaying a tourist visa on a cheap flight. If there are tourist visas and cheap flights after a hard Brexit.

Part of the whole premise of voting Brexit was to "protect the borders". Do you really think that is no longer important? That Britain will be happy for people to wander in and out at will?

Also wrt the "trusted trader" and the "all-island" agricultural agreements - the DUP has ruled out any different treatment for NI so those ideas will go down like a lead balloon.

Don't you think that if there was a simple, workable, acceptable to all solution the British government might have suggested it by now?

It took 25 from Sunningdale to the Good Friday agreement even though they were basically the same.
So no I don't think workable solutions get put in place in Northern Ireland quickly or easily.
If the EU stand firm and refuse to move to stage 2 of the negotiations the reality of a car crash Brexit might knock 23 years off the acceptance process this time.

The prevention of movement of people does not require a hard border.
Great, so now you are suggesting removing all border controls for the UK, at airports, sea ports, railway terminals etc. We can leave all immigration controls in the safe hands of landlords and employers, because these people are already doing a wonderful job in preventing the estimated 1 million already here.

If it wasn't such a serious matter, it would be laughable to watch brexitiers, the people who were so concerned about immigration, now proposing removing all barriers to people entering the UK!

Ifailed, most of they people that the UK want to keep out rather than just refuse employment and social welfare rights to are people that Ireland wants to keep out too.

If the UK wants to refuse entry rather than just employment and residency status to EU citizens then it should not be in any negotiations with the EU at all.

That makes no sense

Are you really suggesting that post-Brexit there should be free travel into and out of the UK? Will you remove the checkpoints at Calais, and let everyone come through the channel tunnel, reassured by the fact that they will be picked up at the point of looking for jobs/housing?

Do you suggest that anyone who wants to can wander in, at will, and then you will refuse to house them, feed them etc etc? There will be people dying of starvation on the streets if that's the case.

Does anyone know at what time the UK will make the statement on their response to the EU tomorrow?

On a lighter note I have just seen a Brussels Sprout described as a John Bull Freedom Cabbage .

Ireland is digging its heels in now. 24 hours to go, and the Government is determined to prevent a hard border, as is the EU.

Sounds to me like there will be a mutually agreed regulatory framework for cross border trade. I'm not sure where that leaves movement of people though.

However, if a regulatory framework is agreed, that may be "sufficient progress" and Phase 2 can go ahead.

A quasi Customs Union may emerge. Allowing free trade between Ireland/NI/UK. Ireland will of course still have Single Market access within the EU.

I can't see Free Trade being allowed between Ireland and mainland UK. Ireland and NI, yes, but that's treating NI differently than the rest of the UK so the DUP won't like it. Nor will the Scots!

It also doesn't solve the free movement of people, so many not be enough to move on, I wouldn't have thought.

What happens if May kicks it down the road until after Christmas? Can anyone force her to actually make any decisions?

I'm also a bit pissed off as the only people I'm seeing say "we can't, we definitely can't have a hard land border" are the Irish and the EU.

The British government is hiding, pretending to Brexiters that it doesn't really matter, that the EU and Ireland are trying to control them, that they don't see it as a major issue, and when it all goes to shit it's definitely not their fault, oh no

They want to dump NI (as in have a sea border) and blame Ireland/EU for it, I think.

Put it off til the last minute, sea border, blame the Eu, dup walk out, general election, a minority or tiny majority Labour govt attempting to cope with the mess and a deficit three times what it was in 2010...?

If I were TM I'd be daydreaming about that scenario.

Is there any chance the former remainer, May, is hoping that the whole process goes pear shaped, and we can just forget the while thing?

There is something afoot I feel.

But it seems from reports that if there is any talk of a hard border there will be no moving on to Phase 2.

That might be fighting talk at the moment though, but I hope Ireland sticks to its position.

Apparently TM is to have a cosy telephone chat with Leo Varadker tonight. That'll sort it all out I am sure, although we won't hear anything until there is a statement after Junker tomorrow. If there is one that is.

In some ways it is ridiculous that it had to come down to the wire like this, in other ways it has shown me that the UK haven't a clue. I am sorry everyone. I don't mean it personally, just the Government. And then they throw their toys out of the pram and blame everyone left right and centre for either being intransigent, thick or both.

That's the bit I don't like. Negotiations are difficult WRT something as fundamentally important as this. It doesn't sit right with me that Ireland is being vilified for standing up for the GFA and its people.

The GFA is an international agreement too. I wonder who conveniently forgot about that?

I have wondered that over the last year. Whether the entire British government is hoping that by deferring everything to the last minute, not coming up with concrete proposals, moaning about the EU and Ireland being nasty to them, etc etc etc that they will have the excuse of saying "ok, the only way is a hard Brexit, no arrangement with the EU at all, no arrangement with Ireland, we're completely on our own".

At that point a few conservatives will start back-pedalling and threatening to vote against the cabinet proposalst, the DUP will implode, the government may well fall. And Boris can appear like a knight on a white charger with a whole new "we've given the EU a fright, these are our new demands, we've got a great deal from them, they desperately want us to stay, we can get them to meet all our concerns; let's have a referendum to see about staying in after all".

I mean, it's not likely, but I suppose I can hope [sigh]