What do people think is most likely to happen with the irish/UK Border Part 2.

[cathyclown]

OK I took it upon myself in my arrogance. Nah, just enjoyed all the views whether we agreed or not, it has been very interesting.

So carry on folks. Link below to the original thread.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/in_the_news/a3096781-What-do-people-think-is-most-likely-to-happen-with-the-Irish-UK-border?msgid=73760649#73760649

As there is already an estimated 1 million illegal immigrants in the UK, I don't think just saying no is going to work. Like it or not, a lot of people who voted to leave did so as they thought it would mean the UK could have more control over the borders and lower immigration. Having an open border in Ireland is not going to achieve this.

So you are going to let anyone who wants to come in, come in?

Seriously Maryz are you that blinkered? Do we currently just 'let' illegal immigrants in? Will having a guard on a border asking for documents stop people smuggling in Ireland?

And what about all the people coming here legally for holidays or work and then just overstaying their visas. Will they be stopped by having a guard on a border asking for documents?

You still haven't said why you are so desperate to put up a hard border, when no one else seems to want one? Exactly what migration are you going to stop?

Who is it from the EU that wants to come here and work on the black market for slave labour wages without housing, healthcare or any legal protections. And who is going to illegally employ them?

somevody on the border checking documents is a hard border, isn't it.

That cannot happen between Northern Ireland and the rest of the island. If you can't do it there, where are you going to do it. That's the question Maryz is asking.

Does Ireland not check documentation then?

Even though outwith schengen, do all-comers just get waved through at present?

If you can't do it there, where are you going to do it
And the answer is that you dont need to do it in Ireland because they have a CTA.

Does Ireland not check documentation then?

Both NI and the ROI check documents of everyone coming in from outside the UK as neither of them are in schengen.

ireland will check documents but EU citizens can travel freely in. They aren't going to be turning away people who won't be allowed to travel into the UK but are allowed into Ireland. And from that point people can just drive across the border into part of the U.K. without another check.

I think the USA comparison is possibly not the best one as they have massive political issues with huge amounts of illegal immigrants! It' one of the headline issues politicians campaign on... ever heard of e.g. the farcical Mexican wall? Look at the lengths some South and Central Americans go to to get in! And the disgusting, evil people trafficking industry grown up around that. Also they have absolutely hardcore borders! OMG US customs officials are like nothing else.

That is a hilarious comparison.

I flew out of NI the other day and we had to sit in London City for ages until someone was removed from the flight for questioning by airport staff for issues around something - they literally wouldn't let her in to the airport and yes, she was from an ethnicity where it is common to have attempts at illegal entry. Poor woman, it was so real and scary walking past her on the tarmac getting interrogated. I expect that this will be a much more common experience if May, like Julie, blithely goes with 'no border' approach.

No Julie, you don't stop illegal people coming in from the EU. The French very nicely stop them at the border for you. And you do currently let everyone in from the EU as part of your membership.

Those same people will be legally allowed to enter Ireland as of right (just show outside of passport). They can get on a bus and go to Belfast (no hard border, no checks, according to you). And then get on a boat and go to Scotland (no border, no checks, staying in the UK).

Or is Julie suggesting that now Ireland should have a hard border/check documentation at the point of entry from the EU? That's really batshit crazy, telling another country you want them to keep immigrants out for you.

I'm not desperate for a hard border, no-one in Ireland wants one. But the UK has to have a hard border with the EU if it wants to enter trade agreements with other countries. Don't you understand that?

Who is it from the EU that wants to come here and work on the black market for slave labour wages without housing, healthcare or any legal protections. Lots of people, I would think; in fact there are many people working "off the books" already.

And who is going to illegally employ them? Lots of scope for cash in hand unskilled labour. It already happens (google modern day slavery UK)

I'm not convinced a system of "let them all in, we can kick them out if they don't have paperwork when they get here" is viable.

May might have to get her ‘go home’ vans out again.

Those same people will be legally allowed to enter Ireland as of right

So the only people a hard border in ROI/NI would stop is legal EU citizens, choosing to give up all their rights to housing, banking, health care, legal jobs, benefits etc all so they can live in slum housing to work for slave wages and at the risk of prison / deportation if caught.

So which legal EU citizens would want to do this? Which landlord / employer would risk doing this? Yes there are some who do currently but they would be illegal immigrants, not anyone who would be affected by a hard border.

But the UK has to have a hard border with the EU if it wants to enter trade agreements with other countries No it doesn't, just because you insist on one does not mean there has to be one. It would be a political choice by the EU if one went up. We can have a FTA with the EU, we can have zero tariffs with the WTO, we can bill large firms for any taxes electronically, we can have exemptions for small business, we can use all sorts of ways of dealing with different taxes to the ROI (like we do already), there is no necessity to chose a hard border to do it.

So the only arguments for a hard border seem to be: 1) As an excuse to keep us in the EU. 2) To stop people smuggling, even though it couldn't. 3) And to pay taxes (which we could choose not to have) because we live in the 19th century and the only way to pay taxes is by posting a guard to collect cash.

Not good enough arguments.

Of course they’d be illegal immigrants that’s the point. Nobody’s suggesting they’d be in the U.K. legally. But logic would suggest if you remove border checks between a country where people can be legally and one where they can’t then the number of illegal immigrants will increase. Because you have no way of stopping anybody coming in and you’ll end up resorting to only trying to find them once they are already established,

Admittedly, that could be an interesting experiment.

"We can have a FTA with the EU, we can have zero tariffs with the WTO"

We are back to having cake and eating it aren't we .

I give up on trying to explain to someone who just doesn't want to believe the truth. So Julie, read this

In summary, of course the UK doesn't need a border of any sort as long as they are (a) happy to have an unlimited number of EU citizens gaining entry (b) happy to keep to EU standards on all food and agriculture products (and pharmaceutical I think) (c) have limited scope for agreements on trade with other non-EU countries.

That's great.

They had better sort something decent at Calais too. No EU hard border means the French border controls don't have to worry about a bit of people smuggling into the UK; the UK can deal with the people when the arrive. It'll all be fine.

Of course they’d be illegal immigrants that’s the point

Well that's semantics, they would all be called illegal immigrants then yes. However it is not at all logical that current legal EU citizens would willingly give up all their rights and benefits to leave the EU, come to the UK and be a de facto slave.

Current EU illegal immigrants who are smuggled into the UK would then have to be smuggled into the ROI before they could get to the UK. Which would just be as hard and you could argue even harder as there is no tunnel to the ROI, it is further away so even harder to get to by boat and so many more opportunities to be caught before getting to the mainland.

And then having left the EU, which remainers think will be a disaster, illegal immigrants might not want to exit the EU to get to the UK.

So I still can't see what difference a hard border in ROI will make to immigration.

We are back to having cake and eating it aren't we

Well that's your paraphrasing but what you really mean is both sides get a good outcome except the UK doesn't get its 'punishment' for leaving. And the EU doesn't want that in case anyone dares to try and leave.

And yet if other EU countries did the same and also got a FTA with the EU they we would end up with lots of prosperous nations with good trading arrangements. Didn't we used to call that the common market?

What else do you do with a cake except eat it?

I give up on trying to explain to someone who just doesn't want to believe the truth. Just because you believe it, doesn't make it true. There is a long way to go in negotiating a deal and I am happy to speculate but until we get to something more concrete I am not going to believe one position over another or one newspaper over another. If indeed a deal ends up as you say Maryz, I am going to accept it as the best we can get, I am not going to spit my dummy out and join UKIP, am quite comfortable around the centre.

"The mainland" makes me want to scream. The mainland is the mass that is Europe. Then there's Ireland. And there's Britain.

Julie it is simple. If the government decides to leave the customs union WTO rules (not Irish rules and not the EU rules) necessitates a hard border. This is fact, not opinion and not speculation. This is the reality. The only way to avoid a hard border is to stay in the CU.

The only way to avoid a hard border is to stay in the CU.

Or to have a customs agreement with the EU.

Staying in the customs union is not the only solution.

The only way to avoid a hard border is to stay in the CU.

Or to have a customs agreement with the EU.

Staying in the customs union is not the only solution.

Faith no matter what you call it there will still have to be full alignment arrangement to avoid a border. There is no other way.

Yes Midnight, I keep seeing Brexit conversations where people obviously believe that you have your cake and then eat it - without seeming to realise that if you do eat it, you no longer have it.

So many people lacking in understanding of basic English.

Faith, I don't know what type of customs arrangement the EU could accept with the UK that they wouldn't have with anyone else? SIt's the UK who have refused repeatedly to join Schengen, and the UK who are demanding special treatment (outside the EU customs union, but inside some sort of equal customs arrangement meaning no UK/Ireland border is needed while UK/everyone else borders remain intact).

The fact that it keeps being said "we will leave but have no border" doesn't mean it's true. I cannot find a single comment or newspaper article online that thinks it's true - apart from UK newspapers who are no longer reliable sources of information on anything relating to Brexit.

The thing is that nobody knows anything at all, until UK puts forward proposals & both sides negotiate a solution.
It's pointless deriding things that haven't even been mooted or thrashed out in any way, and slating Individual posters on an anonymous Internet forum is daft.

There's models already being utilised by other countries already: Norway, Canada, Ukraine for example, and I'd imagine that the final outcome will contain elements of those.

But we won't know until we know, and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed...
(The new mantra, Brexit means Brexit has been retired now )

Faith
There's models already being utilised by other countries already: Norway, Canada, Ukraine for example, and I'd imagine that the final outcome will contain elements of those.

The problem is that none of those has a Northern Ireland type of situation. I have to say it's an anxious time for those of us who remember NI Pre-GFA. No one wants to go back there but the huge worry is that if there is a hard border that's exactly what will happen.