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Witty and Valance briefing today

(175 Posts)
CrunchyCarrot Mon 21-Sep-20 11:24:13

Here's my rough transcript of what was said. Apologies for any typos as I was having to rush to get it all down.

Valance spoke first and reminds us how virus is spread.
Slides showing what is happening in Spain and France
as disease spreads, expect to see increase in hospitalisations and thence deaths.
England data (but is similar across UK) - cases per 100,000 population by age groups. Can see an inc across all age groups (lowest children). Proportion of positive tests have risen. Samples across pop show a similar increase.

ONS study, about 70,000 across UK have covid infection and about 6000 per day are getting infection,
Numbers are clearly inc across all age groups, a little different across all areas. This is leading to an increase in hospitalisation.

Reminds us how quickly virus can move. Slide showscases up to mid Sept (3,105 new cases) Think cases are doubling roughly every 7 days. If this continues, then there would be 49,000 new cases on 13 October per day. Challenge is to slow that down.

Final word - immunity slide. Vast majority of people get antibody response, some are neutralising antibodies. They fade over time, there are cases of some people being reinfected. Under 8% of pop have been infected and produced antibodies. The vast majority of us aren't protected and are thus susceptible to the disease.

Witty speaks - shows 2 maps of England. 1st shows total rate of transmission, and second map shows change of rate of transmission. We've seen smaller outbreaks growing larger over time. Rising cases are happening throughout England.

In-patient cases in England from 1st Aug. Up till then, cases had been falling, but since 1st Sept steady sustained increase in cases. This tells us if this carries on unabated then the no of deaths will continue to rise on an exponential curve. Seasons are against us, they benefit respiratory viruses and will likely benefit Covid. Next 6 months we have to collectively take this v seriously.

Is this a milder virus than that in April? No evidence he can see of that. Still says for many this is a mild infection (younger age groups) but in older age groups can be quite serious. Mortality rates will be significantly greater than that of seasonal flu. This virus is more virulent than flu.

Treatment is better, more drugs and more effective treatment, but not enough to eliminate or take cases right down.

Four ways in which this viruas will have a significant effect:
1. direct Covid deaths (get virus, die of it)
2. overwhelming of NJHS emergency services
3. v. important - if the NHS is having to spend a large part of its effort on Covid cases, then it will lead to a reduction in treatment and diagnosis of other diseases, i.e. indirect deaths
4. Some things we have to do will impact on mental health and economy. V difficult balance. Too littel and virus gets out of control, toomuch and damage to economy etc.

If I increase my risk I inc the risk to everyone around me, then everyone they are in contact with, eventually it will reach those who are vulnerable.

4 things we can do collectively to help:
1. reduce individual risk - hands, face, space, masks
2. isolate virus - by self-isolation and contact tracing. Travel from high risk areas - self isolate.
3. most difficult - break unnecessary links between households. Reduce social contacts.
4. Science - drugs, vaccines

Valance - we'll be living with this virus for some time.

One part is vaccines. Good progress being made. Several vaccines are in v late stage clinical testing. UK has access to a range of different vaccines and is in a good position for supply. We don't yet know if they will work, may be small amounts by end of this year
May see larger amounts in first half of next year.

In the meantime must get in control of this virus.

OP’s posts: |
The80sweregreat Mon 21-Sep-20 11:34:06

Thank you !

Roussette Mon 21-Sep-20 11:34:24

Excellent work! smile

Redolent Mon 21-Sep-20 11:34:33

Thanks for the summary, very helpful.

bilbodog Mon 21-Sep-20 11:35:11

Thanks for this

Etinox Mon 21-Sep-20 11:36:19

Excellent summary @CrunchyCarrot
flowers

CrunchyCarrot Mon 21-Sep-20 11:37:44

Thank you! smile

They were both very sombre and matter of fact. I expect Boris will be wheeled out soon to tell us what's coming next in terms of restrictions. It does look rather bleak over winter though, no matter how you look at it.

OP’s posts: |
Wakemeuuuup Mon 21-Sep-20 11:38:08

Thank you

Coriandersucks Mon 21-Sep-20 11:38:22

Great thank you op!

smellycats Mon 21-Sep-20 11:39:22

Well done. Thank you.

Orangeblossom7777 Mon 21-Sep-20 11:39:32

Final word - immunity slide. Vast majority of people get antibody response, some are neutralising antibodies. They fade over time, there are cases of some people being reinfected. Under 8% of pop have been infected and produced antibodies. The vast majority of us aren't protected and are thus susceptible to the disease

Not sure about this, there have been more studies recently about T cell immunity, for example 6 studies summarised in BMJ recently.

Are they up to date?

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563

PurpleDaisies Mon 21-Sep-20 11:40:39

Whitty.

His name is spelt Whitty.

Bouncycastle12 Mon 21-Sep-20 11:40:41

I don't understand why they don't enforce the current rules rather than rolling out new ones. I drove past a pub yesterday and you could see large groups in the garden (way more than six). Why not stop that and let everyone else get on with sticking to the rules. The only bloody circuit this stupid lockdown will break is the economy. Enforce the rules!

Southernsoftie76 Mon 21-Sep-20 11:41:04

Thank you op. Dreading the next 6 months.

IrmaFayLear Mon 21-Sep-20 11:42:39

Thanks for précis - even if very sobering sad

Yetiyoga Mon 21-Sep-20 11:44:48

Thank you for this.

Sb2012 Mon 21-Sep-20 11:45:09

Thanks flowers

CrunchyCarrot Mon 21-Sep-20 11:45:37

His name is spelt Whitty.

Oh God. I so know that, but as I say, I was typing at breakneck speed!

OP’s posts: |
SandysMam Mon 21-Sep-20 11:49:50

Don’t worry about spelling mistakes OP, we appreciate you taking the time to do this.

CoffeeandCroissant Mon 21-Sep-20 11:52:47

Can also watch again here:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=3FEI74CpAcw&t=12m22s

EchoCardioGran Mon 21-Sep-20 11:53:27

Thank you for that, I couldn't get home in time to see what was said.
Great break down of the main points.

TodaysFishIsTroutALaCreme Mon 21-Sep-20 11:54:24

Excellent summary OP. One small point missed was that at 49000 cases per day that translates to 200 deaths per day*

*disclaimer - was on phone so may not have heard that correctly

CrunchyCarrot Mon 21-Sep-20 11:56:13

Excellent summary OP. One small point missed was that at 49000 cases per day that translates to 200 deaths per day*

Thanks, I wasn't sure at the time whether it was 200 or 200,000 and I thought the latter sounded way too high but perhaps not? They were talking about what that would mean for mid-November deaths but I am not sure which it was.

OP’s posts: |
TheAdventuresoftheWishingChair Mon 21-Sep-20 11:57:06

Thank you OP. Really appreciate being able to read that.

Bluepolkadots42 Mon 21-Sep-20 12:00:42

Thanks OP- this is really helpful smile

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