Witty and Valance briefing today

[CrunchyCarrot]

Here's my rough transcript of what was said. Apologies for any typos as I was having to rush to get it all down.

Valance spoke first and reminds us how virus is spread.
Slides showing what is happening in Spain and France
as disease spreads, expect to see increase in hospitalisations and thence deaths.
England data (but is similar across UK) - cases per 100,000 population by age groups. Can see an inc across all age groups (lowest children). Proportion of positive tests have risen. Samples across pop show a similar increase.

ONS study, about 70,000 across UK have covid infection and about 6000 per day are getting infection,
Numbers are clearly inc across all age groups, a little different across all areas. This is leading to an increase in hospitalisation.

Reminds us how quickly virus can move. Slide showscases up to mid Sept (3,105 new cases) Think cases are doubling roughly every 7 days. If this continues, then there would be 49,000 new cases on 13 October per day. Challenge is to slow that down.

Final word - immunity slide. Vast majority of people get antibody response, some are neutralising antibodies. They fade over time, there are cases of some people being reinfected. Under 8% of pop have been infected and produced antibodies. The vast majority of us aren't protected and are thus susceptible to the disease.

Witty speaks - shows 2 maps of England. 1st shows total rate of transmission, and second map shows change of rate of transmission. We've seen smaller outbreaks growing larger over time. Rising cases are happening throughout England.

In-patient cases in England from 1st Aug. Up till then, cases had been falling, but since 1st Sept steady sustained increase in cases. This tells us if this carries on unabated then the no of deaths will continue to rise on an exponential curve. Seasons are against us, they benefit respiratory viruses and will likely benefit Covid. Next 6 months we have to collectively take this v seriously.

Is this a milder virus than that in April? No evidence he can see of that. Still says for many this is a mild infection (younger age groups) but in older age groups can be quite serious. Mortality rates will be significantly greater than that of seasonal flu. This virus is more virulent than flu.

Treatment is better, more drugs and more effective treatment, but not enough to eliminate or take cases right down.

Four ways in which this viruas will have a significant effect:

1. direct Covid deaths (get virus, die of it)
2. overwhelming of NJHS emergency services
3. v. important - if the NHS is having to spend a large part of its effort on Covid cases, then it will lead to a reduction in treatment and diagnosis of other diseases, i.e. indirect deaths
4. Some things we have to do will impact on mental health and economy. V difficult balance. Too littel and virus gets out of control, toomuch and damage to economy etc.

If I increase my risk I inc the risk to everyone around me, then everyone they are in contact with, eventually it will reach those who are vulnerable.

4 things we can do collectively to help:

1. reduce individual risk - hands, face, space, masks
2. isolate virus - by self-isolation and contact tracing. Travel from high risk areas - self isolate.
3. most difficult - break unnecessary links between households. Reduce social contacts.
4. Science - drugs, vaccines

Valance - we'll be living with this virus for some time.

One part is vaccines. Good progress being made. Several vaccines are in v late stage clinical testing. UK has access to a range of different vaccines and is in a good position for supply. We don't yet know if they will work, may be small amounts by end of this year
May see larger amounts in first half of next year.

In the meantime must get in control of this virus.

I do think they have lied about the lower increase in children.

I can't figure out how to attach the graph (it's not posting when I press to post) but in this article in the Sun you can clearly see the Public Health England graph to 18 September. The black line shows the positive case rate of under 10s and it is clearly higher than most of the other age groups.

www.thesun.co.uk/news/12726067/coronavirus-rising-all-age-groups-uk/

I mean, the increase is steeper/higher.

OP - thank you for typing this out for us all - please ignore those taking issue with the spelling .

[quote Orangeblossom7777]Final word - immunity slide. Vast majority of people get antibody response, some are neutralising antibodies. They fade over time, there are cases of some people being reinfected. Under 8% of pop have been infected and produced antibodies. The vast majority of us aren't protected and are thus susceptible to the disease

Not sure about this, there have been more studies recently about T cell immunity, for example 6 studies summarised in BMJ recently.

Are they up to date?

www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3563[/quote]
....
"Immunity" and T cells

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1293344524731691008.html

Shane Crotty@profshanecrotty

1/ There are various tweets misinterpreting COVID-19 “pre-existing immunity” and making dangerous claims about herd immunity.

Since many of those claims refer to our scientific papers,
we will reiterate the facts.
.....
5/ ...these memory cells MAY impact people’s responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection,
or COVID-19 vaccines.
.....
7/ We SPECULATE that it is conceivable that these T cells may potentially reduce COVID-19 disease severity,
based on things we know about flu and T cells.

8/ These are only speculations (no data)
and because of their potential importance it is key for scientists to test these ideas, as quickly as possible.
.....
10/ Additionally, even if our most optimistic speculations about crossreactive T cell memory were found to be correct,
it would mean that just as many people would get infected with SARS-CoV-2, but fewer would become severely ill and die from COVID-19.

11/ T cells generally don’t completely prevent infections, they limit disease
(make it shorter and/or less serious).

Thus, wearing a mask is much more effective than hoping you and the people around you have pre-existing T cell memory.
Wearing a mask stops infections.

@StopGo

So the government, NHS, Prof Whitty etc etc are prepared to sacrifice people with serious diagnosis such as cancer, cardiac and renal conditions etc. All so they can concentrate on those with Covid-19.

Why? Just why? My children lost their father and me my much loved husband due to Covid-19 neglect. The NHS admitted that he couldn't access the tests and treatments he needed because they were concentrating on Covid-19. My DH is was just one very ordinary man no more or less important than any other human. He was/is one of tens of thousands who have or will die because of this obsession.

I am very sorry to read of the loss of your husband

What I understood from Whitty was they need to keep covid under control to prevent it taking all NHS resources again, for the reasons you very clearly and movingly explain.

SquirrelScorn Mon 21-Sep-20 12:57:47
There was an actual graph on the screen showing the increases amongst different age groups, how the fuck could they be lying? This is why verbal reasoning should be taught in schools. Rising more slowly than in other age groups is not the same as not rising.

Indeed there was, and it shows both the under 10 and the 10-19 age groups increasing FASTER than the 20-29 in the last week.

@everythingthelighttouches

To go with the 200 dying a day, you’ve got huge numbers in need of hdu or icu beds per day

The National capacity is roughly 4000 beds per day.

Many deaths are in care homes because of the nature of the disease

@StopGo The people that spoke today and the Welsh government are telling us to behave otherwise more people will lose close family members like you as NHS resources are being diverted.

(Sorry for your loss.)

I just wish they were more honest about the stats, what they're reading into them and why they're making decisions. I feel like they're treating us like wee kids, trying to scare us into compliance. But we're adults and have questions that aren't being answered.

If they said yip they're been a rise in schools, there's also a rise in women who are the primary caregivers and make up a large proportion of school staff but the percentage of these cases is not sufficient to warrant closing schools because of the impact on education, kids mental health, childcare to allow key workers to continue etc then there would probably be more support. It's the fact that we can see things that are glaringly obvious that seem to be brushed under the carpet that's so confusing.

Same with hospitality staying open. If they were honest and said that we need to balance the economy, keep people in work etc and it's a fine balancing act then I'd be more on board. Instead they keep telling us places are 'COVID secure' have idiotic things like the eat out scheme and we've to carry on, business as usual.

It's the lack of transparency that's causing a lot of the problems.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919548/20200921_Briefing.pdf

second graph.

@PurpleDaisies You mean his name is spelled Whitty. Spelt is a grain.

[quote JinglingHellsBells]@PurpleDaisies You mean his name is spelled Whitty. Spelt is a grain.[/quote]
Only if you’re American. ‘Spelt’ is perfectly acceptable in English.

@PurpleDaisies

Whitty.

His name is spelt Whitty.

Don’t be a dick

@soloula It is up to the government to determine policy, not the scientists. This is why the governments saying "we are following the science" was always complete bullshit.

Thanks OP.
49,000 cases a day but only 200 deaths a day did I get that right? It's much lower death rate than the last peak I think?

Thanks for the recap, it is very much appreciated.

@KetoPenguin

Thanks OP. 49,000 cases a day but only 200 deaths a day did I get that right? It's much lower death rate than the last peak I think?

That wouldn’t be the peak.

That is just a snapshot of where we could be on that date if things continue as they are.

The numbers won’t stop exponentially growing unless something changes.

@Choccyp1g

SquirrelScorn Mon 21-Sep-20 12:57:47 There was an actual graph on the screen showing the increases amongst different age groups, how the fuck could they be lying? This is why verbal reasoning should be taught in schools. Rising more slowly than in other age groups is not the same as not rising.

Indeed there was, and it shows both the under 10 and the 10-19 age groups increasing FASTER than the 20-29 in the last week.

You are quite right Choccy. I thought I was going mad!

The data can be seen quite clearly in the PHE graph in the Sun article I posted above. The infection rates in children are increasing more steeply than most other age groups, not less.

I love hearing people call the science questionable.
If you received the full scientific backup you wouldn’t understand it, but by all means go back to believing what you read online rather than what 2 experts are explaining to you.

@RedRumTheHorse completely agree. I wasn't meaning PV and CW this morning should have been clearer about decisions as that's not their place. I mean the politicians in general and BJ in particular. NS is a bit clearer in Scotland but even still I feel there is a lot we're not being told. Not meant in a conspiratorial way that there are secrets being kept from us but I think there would be much more public buy in if there was more transparency about the decision making process. It's all the anomalies in particular that make people decide what the hell as they can't see the sense in stuff anymore.

Someone on sky news earlier was saying that they're not surprised about the rise in women in the 20-40 bracket as they're are more likely to be in lower paid customer facing roles that can't be carried out at home than males of the same age. I don't want to jump to stereotypes but don't men tend to do more outdoor jobs than women? We are having loads of road works done in the roads round where I live, all the workers seem to be men, last week I had a clear out and and took a load to the local tip, about 8 or 9 men working and one woman. Neighbour having house painted and the scaffolding went up this morning, 3 men put it up, the painters both seem to be men.
Obviously women do work outside but I just wonder if men working outdoors is safer than women in offices/shops etc.

Just had a message from the school saying that our council is advising parents wear masks at drop off and pick up as social distancing is often not possible.

Errr what’s the point?

If Mrs Smith has COVID, then her dc probably will have it. My dc have been licking Mrs Smith’s dc all day.

If Mrs Smith has Covid, I’m probably getting it. And standing a few feet from her in the playground wearing a mask isn’t going to make a blind but of difference once I’ve hugged/kissed my own dc.

@MoaningMurlock

Just had a message from the school saying that our council is advising parents wear masks at drop off and pick up as social distancing is often not possible.

Errr what’s the point?

If Mrs Smith has COVID, then her dc probably will have it. My dc have been licking Mrs Smith’s dc all day.

If Mrs Smith has Covid, I’m probably getting it. And standing a few feet from her in the playground wearing a mask isn’t going to make a blind but of difference once I’ve hugged/kissed my own dc.

It is because you want to reduce the number of people an infected person gives the virus too, any slowing of spread is beneficial.

Two children may not spread to each other.

Transmission is not guaranteed.

And if you stand by Mrs Jones and her child hasn't been in contact with yours?

I love hearing people call the science questionable.

Scientists often interpret data in different ways and come to different conclusions. There is no such thing as 'the science' that the govt keeps banging on about. Just a lot of data and the interpretations of it.