Witty and Valance briefing today

[CrunchyCarrot]

Here's my rough transcript of what was said. Apologies for any typos as I was having to rush to get it all down.

Valance spoke first and reminds us how virus is spread.
Slides showing what is happening in Spain and France
as disease spreads, expect to see increase in hospitalisations and thence deaths.
England data (but is similar across UK) - cases per 100,000 population by age groups. Can see an inc across all age groups (lowest children). Proportion of positive tests have risen. Samples across pop show a similar increase.

ONS study, about 70,000 across UK have covid infection and about 6000 per day are getting infection,
Numbers are clearly inc across all age groups, a little different across all areas. This is leading to an increase in hospitalisation.

Reminds us how quickly virus can move. Slide showscases up to mid Sept (3,105 new cases) Think cases are doubling roughly every 7 days. If this continues, then there would be 49,000 new cases on 13 October per day. Challenge is to slow that down.

Final word - immunity slide. Vast majority of people get antibody response, some are neutralising antibodies. They fade over time, there are cases of some people being reinfected. Under 8% of pop have been infected and produced antibodies. The vast majority of us aren't protected and are thus susceptible to the disease.

Witty speaks - shows 2 maps of England. 1st shows total rate of transmission, and second map shows change of rate of transmission. We've seen smaller outbreaks growing larger over time. Rising cases are happening throughout England.

In-patient cases in England from 1st Aug. Up till then, cases had been falling, but since 1st Sept steady sustained increase in cases. This tells us if this carries on unabated then the no of deaths will continue to rise on an exponential curve. Seasons are against us, they benefit respiratory viruses and will likely benefit Covid. Next 6 months we have to collectively take this v seriously.

Is this a milder virus than that in April? No evidence he can see of that. Still says for many this is a mild infection (younger age groups) but in older age groups can be quite serious. Mortality rates will be significantly greater than that of seasonal flu. This virus is more virulent than flu.

Treatment is better, more drugs and more effective treatment, but not enough to eliminate or take cases right down.

Four ways in which this viruas will have a significant effect:

1. direct Covid deaths (get virus, die of it)
2. overwhelming of NJHS emergency services
3. v. important - if the NHS is having to spend a large part of its effort on Covid cases, then it will lead to a reduction in treatment and diagnosis of other diseases, i.e. indirect deaths
4. Some things we have to do will impact on mental health and economy. V difficult balance. Too littel and virus gets out of control, toomuch and damage to economy etc.

If I increase my risk I inc the risk to everyone around me, then everyone they are in contact with, eventually it will reach those who are vulnerable.

4 things we can do collectively to help:

1. reduce individual risk - hands, face, space, masks
2. isolate virus - by self-isolation and contact tracing. Travel from high risk areas - self isolate.
3. most difficult - break unnecessary links between households. Reduce social contacts.
4. Science - drugs, vaccines

Valance - we'll be living with this virus for some time.

One part is vaccines. Good progress being made. Several vaccines are in v late stage clinical testing. UK has access to a range of different vaccines and is in a good position for supply. We don't yet know if they will work, may be small amounts by end of this year
May see larger amounts in first half of next year.

In the meantime must get in control of this virus.

I've just watched the Scotland briefing, NS says that there will be a cobra (sp?) meeting today/tomorrow but whatever the outcome, Scotland will be imposing new restrictions.

@MotherOfDragonite

Aren't they lying about the lowest increases being among children?

The most recent ONS infection survey data says very clearly that "in recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 2 to 11 years".

The professor of child health and outbreak medicine who spoke on the BBC news after the Whitty briefing also said that there has been an unexpected rise in coronavirus hospital admissions of women in their 20s to 40s.

They think it could be because women work more in public facing roles like retail or care work -- but I think the timing is a bit suspicious, weeks after children return to school, that women of that age (usually primary carers of children of that age) are now being hospitalised. Seems more likely to me to be linked to the unsafe school returns (and fines/penalties for non-attendance).

I thought exactly the same thing.

They all seem to be very carefully tiptoeing around the subject of schools.

As an ex-shielder who has felt forced to send dc back (EHCP for disabled dc means deregistering, even if it saved my life, was out of the question. We sweated blood to get that for him) I feel betrayed.

Many thanks @CrunchyCarrot, much appreciated.

shame you invalidated the whole lot of information by spelling chris whittys name wrong mind

Says someone who can’t be bothered with capital letters or apostrophes :D

@MotherofDragonite* Yes interesting that women 20s to 40s increasingly getting Covid.

Is it the case that many children are asymptomatic so could be bringing infections home (basically household to household transmission)?

Women are more prone to long term immune system illness (probably plays a part in POTS, CFS and others) so even if they are not at risk of death I predict that we could have a significant long Covid polpulation amongst women going forward.

I have CFS and it totally changes your life. Lockdown was not a big deal for me as I have already had years of curtailed social life, not going for long walks etc. This isn't a poor me post - its just a caution that none of us is invulnerable.

Be careful out there Mumsnetters!

Lets try our best to keep each other safe by whatever small things we can do.

@Badbanana We have a DS with EHCP - likewise sweated blood for.

We ave de-reg'd over Winter as told school we did not think return to school safe for whole family. You don't lose an EHCP if you de-reg (though no money is paid out). Your decision of course, but you can HE with one (just have to provide 'a suitable education', not nec follow all that is in the EHCP).

@hamstersarse

The graph of the 'doubling infection' rate that they showed was an absolute disgrace.

They said "this is not a prediction" twice, so if it is not a prediction, what is the purpose of it? It can only be to put the fear of God into people.

I feel Ferguson has had his crayons out again.

There is no evidence from anywhere that those sort of 'predictions' are in any way valid. And that includes from our own data.

And anyway, 200 people dying a day is NORMAL. Over 450 die a day from cancer. Over 200 a day in flu season.

This madness has to stop

It's not a predication as in prophecy from on high. It's our best estimate from the data we have.

"200 people dying a day is NORMAL"

That would be 200 EXTRA people. Will you volunteer to be number 1 tomorrow to show us we're making too much fuss? That would probably convince me.

Thank you @CrunchyCarrot

I couldn't get home in time to see what was said.

Great break down of the main points.

I hope this isn’t going to go on for another 6mths + but fear it will do

Had wedding cancelled this may - we rebooked it for next May thinking a year on all would be ok ..........

@PurpleDaisies

Whitty.

His name is spelt Whitty.

Hilarious, why would you even point that out?

*Imho Whitty and the other scientific advisors have lost all credibility, they've got too much wrong, especially not taking note of what was happening in Italy in Feb early March.
The Govt strategy hasn't worked (and they give the advice) not least the emptying of the hospitals and all the deaths that has caused and huge delays in treatment for us all.

They both said nothing as Johnson opened up the night time economy, advised us all to go back to the Office....*

I got the feeling that they presented (as today) the scientific data, and predictions, and the government decided what to do with that information. I dont know if they have the authority to set any restrictions, although they can (and do) obviously advise

Someone on sky news earlier was saying that they're not surprised about the rise in women in the 20-40 bracket as they're are more likely to be in lower paid customer facing roles that can't be carried out at home than males of the same age.

The only thing I wish they would do is explain how many hospitalised patients, especially hdu/icu this equates to.

This is a much more stark message for those who say “it’s only 200 deaths per day).

I’m not sure what it is hamster is looking for in a graph?

It’s just basic maths. There is a tonne of data out there to back up doubling of infectious diseases. It is fundamental textbook stuff.

What bothers me is that they seem to try to push the agenda that the public is somehow responsible...

Who messed up testing? track and trace? asked people to go back to their offices? dreamed up the 'eat out to help out' scheme said it was Ok to open all schools?

Now it is up to the public to fix the basic flaws in the government strategy? that is simply trying to blame other people for their own failures.

Most of us will have been taking the necessary precautions and followed advice but the government did bugger all to get on top of the situation....so as far as I am concerned they can keep their pointless lockdown.

On some of the press briefings you could see them trying to rein in Boris or looking very uncomfortable with what he was saying

@soloula

Someone on sky news earlier was saying that they're not surprised about the rise in women in the 20-40 bracket as they're are more likely to be in lower paid customer facing roles that can't be carried out at home than males of the same age.

But if this was the real reason, why would the rise be happening now... coincidentally, a few weeks into the start of term.

If it was linked to customer service jobs then I would have expected the rise to begin in July when pubs, restaurants and shops opened.

To go with the 200 dying a day, you’ve got huge numbers in need of hdu or icu beds per day

The National capacity is roughly 4000 beds per day.

Oops!

I meant the nation’s capacity of icu hdu beds is 4000 total.

Not 4000 per day.

On some of the press briefings you could see them trying to rein in Boris or looking very uncomfortable with what he was saying

Yes true but we are confronted with death and the destruction of our economy, we need people in these positions of power to publicly speak up, not frown....... or speak in code.

Apparently Boris is going to make a statement tomorrow.

Most of us will have been taking the necessary precautions and followed advice but the government did bugger all to get on top of the situation....so as far as I am concerned they can keep their pointless lockdown.

You only have to look at social media and Mumsnet to see that is not really the case.

The govenernment have to balance the economy against this public health emergency.

I don't think they are doing a good job and the nessage is mixed, but people are not making wise decisions.

That is nothing to do with testing (which is shameful).

We can blame the government yes, but we alsi have to take some responsibility.

Have you genuinely never went against the guidelines?

I have on the most part but I wod be lying if I said it was 100% compliance.

It will be now though

mobile.twitter.com/CommonsLeader/status/1308015877858693120?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1308015877858693120%7Ctwgr%5Eshare_3&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fworld-54231625

[quote Napqueen1234]**@MotherOfDragonite*
Aren't they lying about the lowest increases being among children?

The most recent ONS infection survey data says very clearly that "in recent weeks, there has been clear evidence of an increase in the number of people testing positive for COVID-19 aged 2 to 11 years".*

They didn’t say there wasn’t an increase they said that the increase was lower in this age group than other ones I.e it’s gone up but not as much as it has for young adults/elderly etc.[/quote]
It looks higher in all the graphs.

This Public Health England (PHE) graph of cases by age seems to show the under 10s rate growing more swiftly than other age groups, not less.

@MotherOfDragonite Would be interesting seeing a comparison of the women in the 20-40 hospitalisations here in Scotland to see if there was a rise after schools went back as we were back weeks before down south.

[quote soloula]@MotherOfDragonite Would be interesting seeing a comparison of the women in the 20-40 hospitalisations here in Scotland to see if there was a rise after schools went back as we were back weeks before down south. [/quote]
Yep, it would, wouldn't it! (and I know how I would bet)

So the government, NHS, Prof Whitty etc etc are prepared to sacrifice people with serious diagnosis such as cancer, cardiac and renal conditions etc. All so they can concentrate on those with Covid-19.

Why? Just why? My children lost their father and me my much loved husband due to Covid-19 neglect. The NHS admitted that he couldn't access the tests and treatments he needed because they were concentrating on Covid-19. My DH is was just one very ordinary man no more or less important than any other human. He was/is one of tens of thousands who have or will die because of this obsession.