Witty and Valance briefing today

[CrunchyCarrot]

Here's my rough transcript of what was said. Apologies for any typos as I was having to rush to get it all down.

Valance spoke first and reminds us how virus is spread.
Slides showing what is happening in Spain and France
as disease spreads, expect to see increase in hospitalisations and thence deaths.
England data (but is similar across UK) - cases per 100,000 population by age groups. Can see an inc across all age groups (lowest children). Proportion of positive tests have risen. Samples across pop show a similar increase.

ONS study, about 70,000 across UK have covid infection and about 6000 per day are getting infection,
Numbers are clearly inc across all age groups, a little different across all areas. This is leading to an increase in hospitalisation.

Reminds us how quickly virus can move. Slide showscases up to mid Sept (3,105 new cases) Think cases are doubling roughly every 7 days. If this continues, then there would be 49,000 new cases on 13 October per day. Challenge is to slow that down.

Final word - immunity slide. Vast majority of people get antibody response, some are neutralising antibodies. They fade over time, there are cases of some people being reinfected. Under 8% of pop have been infected and produced antibodies. The vast majority of us aren't protected and are thus susceptible to the disease.

Witty speaks - shows 2 maps of England. 1st shows total rate of transmission, and second map shows change of rate of transmission. We've seen smaller outbreaks growing larger over time. Rising cases are happening throughout England.

In-patient cases in England from 1st Aug. Up till then, cases had been falling, but since 1st Sept steady sustained increase in cases. This tells us if this carries on unabated then the no of deaths will continue to rise on an exponential curve. Seasons are against us, they benefit respiratory viruses and will likely benefit Covid. Next 6 months we have to collectively take this v seriously.

Is this a milder virus than that in April? No evidence he can see of that. Still says for many this is a mild infection (younger age groups) but in older age groups can be quite serious. Mortality rates will be significantly greater than that of seasonal flu. This virus is more virulent than flu.

Treatment is better, more drugs and more effective treatment, but not enough to eliminate or take cases right down.

Four ways in which this viruas will have a significant effect:

1. direct Covid deaths (get virus, die of it)
2. overwhelming of NJHS emergency services
3. v. important - if the NHS is having to spend a large part of its effort on Covid cases, then it will lead to a reduction in treatment and diagnosis of other diseases, i.e. indirect deaths
4. Some things we have to do will impact on mental health and economy. V difficult balance. Too littel and virus gets out of control, toomuch and damage to economy etc.

If I increase my risk I inc the risk to everyone around me, then everyone they are in contact with, eventually it will reach those who are vulnerable.

4 things we can do collectively to help:

1. reduce individual risk - hands, face, space, masks
2. isolate virus - by self-isolation and contact tracing. Travel from high risk areas - self isolate.
3. most difficult - break unnecessary links between households. Reduce social contacts.
4. Science - drugs, vaccines

Valance - we'll be living with this virus for some time.

One part is vaccines. Good progress being made. Several vaccines are in v late stage clinical testing. UK has access to a range of different vaccines and is in a good position for supply. We don't yet know if they will work, may be small amounts by end of this year
May see larger amounts in first half of next year.

In the meantime must get in control of this virus.

Transmission is not guaranteed.

Well the scientists may be bullshiting people but any parent of school age dc knows the truth.

Unless this virus has magical properties it will spread just like all the other viruses in school.

@ineedaholidaynow

And if you stand by Mrs Jones and her child hasn't been in contact with yours?

Our school is now using different gates for each year, and each year is in a ‘bubble’.

A bit off topic but my great grandma’s surname was Whitty. However some of her siblings were called Witty.They born in rural Ireland at the start of the 1900s and not many people in the area could read or write. When the child was christened the presiding priest would record the given name in the register and spell it however he thought was correct so the spelling often changed as the priests changed and even the same priest might write it down one way for one child and another for the next. It didn’t matter , everyone knew who they were! As did the pedantic posters correcting the OP. It’s not as though the missing H lead to confusion with another person of the same name.

Incidentally, one of my granny’s brothers with the Witty spelling was christened Walter and married a girl called Catherine. They were always called by abbreviations of their first names and so became known as Kitty & Watty Witty. Excellent names. Long dead now. 😕

But your child may still not be besties with MiniJones so not have too much contact with her unless running around outside, whereas you may be standing quite close to Mrs Jones for longer. Every bit helps to try and reduce the spread

@MoaningMurlock

Transmission is not guaranteed.

Well the scientists may be bullshiting people but any parent of school age dc knows the truth.

Unless this virus has magical properties it will spread just like all the other viruses in school.

Not every child got covid in march before schools shut.

It spreads - but each person can limit their chance of spreading it.

What harm is it to wear a mask? You could make a small difference to the school, but every small difference adds up.

@ineedaholidaynow

But your child may still not be besties with MiniJones so not have too much contact with her unless running around outside, whereas you may be standing quite close to Mrs Jones for longer. Every bit helps to try and reduce the spread

I’ve copied this message from another thread I am on.

*They are still pretending that children can't transmit coronavirus.

Although this case from the US shows that a single child can infect 30 other children which has also led to 32 adult cases! www.pressdemocrat.com/article/news/coronavirus-outbreaks-hit-13-sonoma-county-child-care-centers/?sba=AAS

"The infections involve 25 children, mostly age 6 and younger, 27 of their family members and 10 workers at the preschools."

But of course it's safe for our snotty DC to lick each other in an unventilated classroom all week.*

No one's saying it's safe for the schools to be open. They're saying that although children can catch and transmit it, children don't seem to be badly affected by it (for the most part). Likewise, parents tend to be aged 20-55 and less likely to be severely affected. For this reason it's not justified to shut the schools, ruining kids' education and life prospects and meaning that parents can't work out of the home, for a virus that predominantly kills the elderly.

@TooExtraImmatureCheddar

No one's saying it's safe for the schools to be open. They're saying that although children can catch and transmit it, children don't seem to be badly affected by it (for the most part). Likewise, parents tend to be aged 20-55 and less likely to be severely affected. For this reason it's not justified to shut the schools, ruining kids' education and life prospects and meaning that parents can't work out of the home, for a virus that predominantly kills the elderly.

There is a serious increase in the number of women aged 20-40 being admitted to hospital with COVID very recently.

It’s claimed to be because women are more likely to be in care work/forward facing role jobs.

In which case, why didn’t we see this increase over the summer when those jobs went back to work? And care work has never stopped.

Funny it just so happens to have happened after the schools opened again.

Who are you more likely to catch it off, a stranger standing three feet away outside, or your own dc who you have close contact with constantly?

www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/chief-medical-officer-none-of-the-comforting-bullshit-you-believe-is-true-20200921200711 is quite a good summary.

Thanks OP

@MoaningMurlock

Just had a message from the school saying that our council is advising parents wear masks at drop off and pick up as social distancing is often not possible.

Errr what’s the point?

If Mrs Smith has COVID, then her dc probably will have it. My dc have been licking Mrs Smith’s dc all day.

If Mrs Smith has Covid, I’m probably getting it. And standing a few feet from her in the playground wearing a mask isn’t going to make a blind but of difference once I’ve hugged/kissed my own dc.

We've had a message from the school too about wearing masks for pick up/drop off times.Think it makes sense, particularly as it can get busy with swarms of parents and kids everywhere. I've been wearing a mask at these times but it isn't mandatory, so there are parents that haven't been wearing them. Fair enough point about DC's mixing with each other but there will be parents/children from different year groups that you may come across.

@notevenat20

www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/health/chief-medical-officer-none-of-the-comforting-bullshit-you-believe-is-true-20200921200711 is quite a good summary.

lol love that!

The more we do to protect ourselves and others, the lower the risk to everyone. Just because you think it 'might' not protect you in a certain set of circumstances, is no reason to throw all caution out of the window. It's this attitude that will push us into another national lockdown.

Thanks, Op, for a great summary.

In the slides about immunity, did it look like The antibody rate dropped rapidly? Or did I misunderstand it?

Weren't they different studies @EvilPea

In which case, why didn’t we see this increase over the summer when those jobs went back to work? And care work has never stopped.

The infection rate in the UK was rising before schools went back and we seem to be having a problem with it getting back into care homes again as well as increase infection in the elderly that might not be in care homes. That’s not to say it couldn’t be because of schools, but it might take a bit of unpicking to find out where people are picking up infections in order to find the cause. I don’t think it’s a simple as just looking at the timings.

@ineedaholidaynow

Weren't they different studies *@EvilPea*

They might have been. I was working and glanced up to saw the slide briefly so just caught an end glimpse.

I think they were. One was ONS, one bio bank and one NHS. I don’t know about the 4th. They were over different time periods but that might not be too much of an issue.

Regardless of T cells or not, I don’t think you’d see the numbers of new cases doubling every 7 days if we were near herd immunity. You’d see it slowing down. Which might be why they didn’t mention T cells and just stuck with what we have data for.

@RafaIsTheKingOfClay

In which case, why didn’t we see this increase over the summer when those jobs went back to work? And care work has never stopped.

The infection rate in the UK was rising before schools went back and we seem to be having a problem with it getting back into care homes again as well as increase infection in the elderly that might not be in care homes. That’s not to say it couldn’t be because of schools, but it might take a bit of unpicking to find out where people are picking up infections in order to find the cause. I don’t think it’s a simple as just looking at the timings.

I was referring specifically to the sharp increase in women aged 20-40 needing to be hospitalised.

We didn’t see that at all when schools were closed.

How many women in that age bracket have been hospitalised recently? That's really scared me, surely that's as a result of schools going back? .

*There is a serious increase in the number of women aged 20-40 being admitted to hospital with COVID very recently.

It’s claimed to be because women are more likely to be in care work/forward facing role jobs*

Seen nothing of this on BBC live feed / online news, can you give a link please?

Slides from today's briefing:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/919548/20200921_Briefing.pdf

Dr John Campbell's discussion of today's briefing:

I’m sorry I can’t remember his name, one of their expert corespondents, they were interviewing him on the BBC directly after the briefing.

He didn’t mention the exact number, just that they had been very surprised in the big rise of women aged 20-40 being admitted to hospital for COVID. He speculated about it being because of care/front facing work that women were more likely to do.

Thank you for taking the time to write this OP, so considerate.

Good work. Thank you @CrunchyCarrot

@MoaningMurlock was it the sage scientist from Liverpool (who had epic kids drawings in the background)