Well, I asked AI what the bookies think are the chances are of Starmer stepping down and when and also who they are predicting will take over as unelected pm. Here is what it says:
Odds of leaving in 2026: The bookies currently have this as the overwhelming favorite scenario. Odds on Starmer being replaced as Labour Leader in 2026 are heavily "odds-on," around 1/14, meaning the market views it as almost a certainty.
Probability of an exit before the end of summer: On specific prediction markets (like Kalshi), the odds of Starmer leaving before September 1, 2026 are sitting at a massive 72%.
Here is how the top contenders stack up according to the bookies:
- Andy Burnham (The Clear Favourite): Burnham is currently leading the pack by a significant margin, with odds hovering around 4/6 to Evens. Although he is currently the Mayor of Greater Manchester and not a sitting MP, a path to Westminster has just opened up for him. Labour MP Josh Simons recently stepped down from his Makerfield seat explicitly to allow Burnham to run in the ensuing by-election, making him the prime candidate for a leadership challenge.
- Angela Rayner: The former Deputy Prime Minister is consistently the second favourite, with odds sitting around 9/4 to 5/1. She was recently cleared by HMRC regarding an investigation into her tax affairs, removing a major hurdle and leaving her well-positioned for a potential leadership bid.
- Ed Miliband: The former Labour leader is generally sitting as the third favourite, with odds ranging from 11/4 to 13/2.
- Wes Streeting: Despite being the catalyst for the current crisis by resigning from the Cabinet and publicly stating he had lost confidence in Starmer, Streeting is currently the fourth favourite at roughly 11/2 to 9/1. While he has positioned himself for a future run, bookmakers still have him trailing behind Burnham and Rayner.
Ultimately, if the bookies are right, Andy Burnham is the man to beat—provided he can successfully navigate the upcoming Makerfield by-election and officially re-enter Parliament.
So it’s looking like we will end up with a hard left pm by September. And like someone up thread has already said, it will just drive more people to vote Reform after getting a taste of life under a hard left Labour. So all pretty grim really.
Im no fan of Starmer, but I would rather him in power than Burnham any day.