"Firstly, the title is misleading — this is based on prison data, not crime data, with all of the accompanying problems discussed already. We’ve already seen that incarceration rates for marginalised groups can be ten times higher than the baseline.
Conversely, criminologists find that cis women are treated more leniently than men. It is estimated that there may be as many at 64,000 woman paedophiles in the UK, with reports rising recently to around 600 cases per year, yet only 103 woman sex offenders in total are in prison at the time of this dataset. Studies in the US show that 21% of child sexual abuse is committed by females, despite them only being 1% of the sexual offenders in prison. Surveys indicate prevalence rates of female sexual offenders six times higher than official data. As we saw previously, the UK justice system simply ignored some kinds of sex crime by women until recently.
There is a critical distinction between offending and conviction — the graphic claims that 395 men per million commit sexual offences of any kind, yet surveys find the number of college men who admit to rape is staggeringly high — in the region of 40,000 to 160,000 per million. And that number doesn’t even include any other, less serious sexual offences. Over a million people are victims of sexual assaults per year in the UK. The graphic is wrong by a factor of at least 100x in this regard.
The graphic also maliciously misgenders trans women by calling them “men who identify as women”.
Despite being dated 2023, it uses the figure for sexual crimes of males (11,660) for June 2021 from the <a class="break-all" href="https://archive.is/o/5bIVF/assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1006269/Population_30June2021_quarterly.ods" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">government data. But the figure used for women (103) does not match the government data for females, which says 119.
It does not cite any source for the number of trans women sex offenders, or any breakdown of the types of sex offence. The most likely source I have found appears to be a Parliamentary answer in January 2022.
The graphic also visualises rates (of groups with wildly different sizes) using icons (normally used to display a tally of actual individuals) which is highly deceptive: it portrays 92 trans individuals as if there were 1916 of them, but 103 cis individuals as if there were just 3 of them. “Lying with visualisation” is another form of “lying with statistics” even when the numbers themselves are (somewhat) true.
To exaggerate the apparent crime rate, it also uses the smallest possible population estimate for trans women, only including those with a specified binary (man/woman) trans identity. Many binary trans people opted not to provide this information (and almost 3 million people did not answer the gender identity question at all). From the census numbers it therefore appears possible that there could be up to twice as many trans women than the number used in the infographic — which would correspondingly decrease the incarceration rate.
Gender identity data, 2021 Census, England and Wales
The breakdown by age also suggests a larger population of trans people as younger generations, free of Section 28, feel more able to come out — which could also affect the apparent incarceration rate, especially since violent crimes are strongly skewed towards young people:
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Percentage of population with a trans identity, by age, 2021 Census, England and Wales
It also uses numbers excluding children under 16 for trans people, but total population numbers for everyone else, further distorting the proportions since about 17% of the population are under 16, and young children would be under the age of criminal responsibility. Thanks to ShantiPixie for pointing this out.
So, the data have multiple likely biases, several of which change the result by a large factor in the ballpark of 4x, 6x, 10x, meaning the graphic could be misleading by a factor of 20x, 30x, 40x or even more.
Even setting that aside, what do these numbers mean in a practical & political context? Firstly, you are more likely to encounter a cis woman sex offender than a trans woman one — even using the heavily biased figures above. Secondly, 99.9% of trans women are innocent; none of this statistical scaremongering remotely justifies any restrictions on rights."
https://medium.com/@davidallsopp/bang-to-rights-d5eab85d9a2