Trans people are less than 1% of the population. Let’s say for argument’s sake that trans women represent half of that group (and trans men the other half). In England and Wales, criminals represent 1.12% of the general population (based on the gov.uk statistic that there were 11.2 arrests for every 1000 people in England and Wales). It’s probably much less than that because that’s just arrests, not convictions.
My maths might not be perfect here, but add that up and we’re talking about 0.0056% of the population, or 5.6 per 100,000.
Based on the population of England and Wales, that’s about 3,000 people overall. And the percentage of criminals who are sex offenders is 3%. So in the whole of England and Wales, we’re talking about around 90 people who might be trans women and also sex offenders (and this is a massive overestimation based on arrests, not number of criminals).
Then you have to look at the fact that the overwhelming majority of sex offences are committed by people who are known to the victim, not strangers. (Only 12% are committed by strangers). So that cuts us down to 10 people, across the whole of England and Wales. Not accounting for repeat arrests / crimes committed by the same person.
Again, maths is far from perfect here and it’s probably a much lower figure than that. Then of those 108 people, we’re worried that they’re all going to choose a toilet as their preferred crime hotspot.
It’s very unlikely.
Of course, you might say that any chance of sexual assault is intolerable, and I’d agree with you there. However, I don’t think that this tiny tiny percentage is where we should all be focusing our attention.
The overwhelming statistical likelihood is that if you’re going to be attacked or abused, it’s going to be by a cis man. They don’t need to put on a dress to harm us, I’m afraid.
The problem is with men, and we are persecuting a small group of trans women because the powers that be have scapegoated them. It’s ridiculous and distracts us from the real problem, which is male violence against women.
Don’t be taken in by “look over there” politics. The problem is men. Trans women are just a distraction. Don’t fall for it.