It is transphobic to state that any male person with a transgender identity is not transgender. Surely you understand this.
You, personally, are not the arbitrator of who is and isn’t a male person with a transgender identity. Neither am I. And there is no one in the UK who can arbitrate this.
You also seem to forget that those stats don’t include the male people we already know are in the UK prisons with GRCs (yet we also don’t know if they are there with any sex offences in their history or if that are there with those offences because the MoJ will not release this information). The number could be higher than what we know.
The entire point is that the numbers are also nothing like those of female people’s sex and violent prisoner numbers.
Also, what is the point of a male person declaring that they are female if they don’t get put into a female prison? The numbers of male sex offenders in the female prison are only a few still. Not anywhere near the numbers of male people with transgender identities in those statistics.
Please do tell me what benefit those male people get if they have declared that they are female again, if they are not in the female estate now? Why would they continue to identify as female if they are not in female estate if they were not genuinely male people with transgender identities?
And why would you assume that all long term male people with transgender identities have GRCs. That is a fairly prejudiced assumption you have just made there.