Is it too early for a post mortem?

[Appalonia]

So, now that America has categorically rejected transgender ideology, which I do think will affect the rest of the world, is now the time to ascertain HOW did so many institutions, including the Democratic and Labour Parties get so completely bamboozled by this ideology? Which is crazy, not based in material reality, disadvantages half of the population, has physically damaged thousands of young people, and that they didn't think that people would see through it?

I know a lot of people dislike Matt Walsh, but his documentary, What is a Woman, was jaw dropping! We must NEVER let this dangerous idiocy happen again ( and yes I know it's not over...)

That was in answer to Butterfly

Focusing on why people voted for Trump misses the point.

Some people were always going to vote for Trump. They were never going to vote Democrat. They are not the Dem's problem.

The Dems problem is that too many of the people who didn't vote for Trump didn't vote for them either.

If they had kept those votes they woukd have won. And that's not on Trump, that is 100% on them.

The Democrats alienated too many of their potential supporters with their quasi-religous, all-or-nothing stance on what is actually a very disparate and unrelated set of issues. It was authoritarian, repressive and ultimately plain stupid of them.

The simple story is that despite being given an opponent with all the flaws you list, someone that many people would never vote for, the Dems still failed to build a consensus on the other side that could accomodate everyone who did not vote for Trump, and so they lost enough votes for him to win. Not lost votes to Trump, just lost.

If the Dem's most important concern was not to see another Trump government they could have worked to open dialogue, and build consensus between the various factions to mount a credible opposition to Trump, but they preferred pure white purity spirals, faith tests and easy answers to hard work and impure reality.

They had one job to do and they failed. This is on them and their supporters who would not countenance working with people on one thing unless they agree with them on everything.

The idea that people might have voted for Trump because they believe they will be better off and safer under Trump than under the Democrats doesn't appear to have crossed your mind.

This post on another thread has a link to an excellent article dissecting the current ineffective post mortem on the effect of gender identity activism on the US election:

https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/womens_rights/5218422-transgender-activists-question-the-movements-confrontational-approach?reply=140158949&utm_campaign=thread&utm_medium=share

They think we’ve been lied to, as if we’ve not seen with our own eyes how the left refuses to prosecute criminals, whines about ‘social justice’, floods our communities with literal foreigners and cries racism when we push back.

You can’t reason with such people.

It worries me when making stuff up becomes the norm. I don't believe people can change sex. But Trump routinely makes stupid stuff up, like the transgender surgery at school nonsense. Laken Riley was indeed attacked and murdered by an undocumented immigrant, but there is no 18 minute 911 call, @RingoJuice made that up. Why? That's what feels frightening in this win. That people can just say any old crap

I already covered that part in the post above.

The election result is woeful.

I was thinking about it today. He can do what he likes right now not really because of his win but because the Supreme Court gives him a pass on crimes while in office and he can pardon himself.

He basically has criminal immunity from everything past and future.

Heady stuff for a convicted felon.

But I believe that people do win elections. Others get voted out. And the Dems would have been trounced in any case.

So in this context, the gender thing is a consolation.

It hasn't been decisively rejected.

I live in a state (Maine) which was one of the last to declare for Harris, with a tiny margin. And, while it was touch-and-go for days, we did return Democrats to the House and an Independent to the Senate. I regularly encounter people who are totally happy to say that they voted for/support Trump and in many cases assume I did/do too. No self-proclaimed Trump supporter has said anything to me about these issues during the recent election campaigns or since. Some did in 2016, hoping to buy time for people to raise what was going on (see: Lesbians For Trump) but not now.

Overwhelmingly, the people here who voted for Trump in 2024 voted for Trump because he and Vance told them that we could solve all of the USA's problems by closing borders and imposing punitive tariffs on foreign countries to defeat the fentanyl epidemic and so that the USA would become totally self-sufficient and flourish fictional 1950s style. Trump isn't even an outlier to do this; Reagan did exactly the same in 1979 (without the fentanyl) and it worked then too - although Reagan didn't outright lie about basic economics because that was not acceptable at the time.

Trump and Vance told people that tariffs - they have proposed to place 25% tariffs on all goods coming in from Canada and Mexico - are paid by the foreign countries and the cost of imported goods to US consumers would FALL by 25%. As you must know (including first-hand from Brexit), this is untrue: the tariffs on foreign goods fall squarely on the US importer/buyer/consumer.

It's anyone's guess what the fuck happens when people see their grocery, automotive, electronics, etc. bills - which they expect to be REDUCED by 25% in mid January - in fact increased by 25%. But I honestly think it's safe to say that these people who voted for Trump aren't going to suddenly say OMG, my weekly shop went from $200 to $250, which I was totally not expecting because I was told the opposite - but that's OK because at least my daughter can compete in sports fairly and my son won't be tempted to get GRS as a minor. Sure, that can be a factor for some, but honestly it's negligible. And we don't even know if a Trump admin WILL spur these changes; they didn't in 2016 and anyway they have little direct authority outside of handling federal building policies.

I do get what you're thinking, because I have been (t)here before (Scotland, Feb 2023). But I think it's very premature to declare victory and plan on that basis. In the US, attitudes AGAINST Trump are hardened (not least because he's an irresponsible liar) and we really risk that the very legitimate concerns and complaints about misogyny in the guise of "trans rights" will be lumped in with other leftist backlash campaigns against Trump. And the things we know to be true and real become "culture war" fodder. Just like always no one cares about women's rights except women, and women are deliberately and artificially divided about retaining (or restoring) these hard-won rights.

She fought for her life for 18 minutes. You can hear her skull getting crushed with a rock in the 911 call.

If we had secure borders he would never have been roaming free to attempt to rape and then murder Riley. This is Biden’s fault for rescinded Stay in Mexico and enacting Catch and Release

nypost.com/2024/11/15/us-news/murdered-nursing-student-laken-rileys-horrifying-911-call-played-in-court-leaving-her-mom-in-a-flood-of-tears/

"They think we’ve been lied to, as if we’ve not seen with our own eyes how the left refuses to prosecute criminals, whines about ‘social justice’, floods our communities with literal foreigners and cries racism when we push back.

You can’t reason with such people"

"floods our communities with literal foreigners and cries racism when we push back"

"literal foreigners"

"cries racism"

What do you mean by saying this?

This is based on the assumption that there were enough female Democrat voters who either stayed home or turned to the GOP primarily due to Biden's stance on self-identification of sex, and different analysts have different takes, but as of now we don't have sufficient data to determine if this is the case.

Deleted

"Besides most of the states that had implemented bans have now over-turned those bans in the last round of voting."

This is not correct.

Most of the states that have implemented bans have not overturned them.

Ten states have held ballot measures in the 2024 elections, and seven of them approved amendments to the ban, but there are still many states where abortion is banned either after conception or 6 weeks.

Here's a list of states with abortion bans after conception or 6 weeks:

Alabama

Arkansas

Idaho

Indiana

Kentucky

Louisiana

Mississippi

Missouri

Oklahoma

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

West Virginia

Florida

Georgia

Iowa

South Carolina

This list excludes states where abortion is banned after 12 weeks.

It is quite sickening to see people saying that this phone call has been fabricated.

I don't know what is wrong with people.

Even from a non-partisan perspective, US Democrats did pivot to more stringent (or harsh, depending on whom you ask) border control/immigration policies and the Harris campaign was in alignment, but the messaging from the other side and the negative optics might have already swayed voters.

It's important to acknowledge both how the actual policies and their messaging have affected and will continue to affect voters' perception, and how some stories that form part of that messaging can be untrue yet strike a nerve, because genuine concern gets easily mixed up with outrage provoked by such stories.

My original point was not about performing surgeries on gender-questioning minors, but it may still be a useful example:

Genuine concern about the long-term health of minors undergoing surgeries is doubtlessly reasonable and necessary, which shouldn't be treated the same as believing nonfactual headlines like "they're secretly performing genital surgeries on minors at schools!".

Placing (and they were placed by temp agencies working with Christian charities flush with government funds) tens of thousands of Haitians into small Midwestern towns is an act of malice.

Overnight 20 percent of their population now comes from the most dysfunctional country (by far) in the Americas.

And if locals complain about it, you slander them with cries of ‘racism’. Tired of shit like this tbh

The MAGA campaign relied heavily upon exploiting a particular strain of anti-intellectual populism

When “intellectuals” demonstrate that they have little grasp on reality, reject biological science in favour of fantasy ideology, condone mutilating surgery on children and promote medical treatment of them that destroys fertility, and make it impossible for women to win their own sporting competitions - can anyone wonder why this turned out to be a successful strategy?

When you say " marginalised" I assume you are including trans identified men in that categorisation, and maybe also Illegal migrants?

This mind set that you are now displaying is an example of one of the reasons that many people voted the way they did.

Laken Riley was indeed attacked and murdered by an undocumented immigrant, but there is no 18 minute 911 call, @RingoJuice made that up.

The poster didn't make it up themselves, did they? It's been reported in the media. Can you provide evidence that it is fake please?

I have a friend in Florida who voted for Trump based primarily on the virtue signalling authoritarianism of the progressive left. She liked the way De Santis handled the lock-down in Florida and she really disliked the censure of discussion around vaccines. She also really dislikes the patronising and moral virtue signalling of DEI ,and identity politics generally

She does take issue with the 6 week abortion limit, though, which she thinks is too low ( she thinks it should be 14 weeks like in much of Europe)...but ultimately other issues concern her far more.

I mean the call is not 18 minutes long, its about 90 seconds long. You can argue that doesn't make any difference - Laken Riley was still murdered by an undocumented immigrant. I'm saying that facts matter, just like they matter when you're talking about sex. Biden reinstated one of the policies RingoJuice refers to him not having, a year before the murderer entered the country.

I mean the call is not 18 minutes long, its about 90 seconds long.

That's not what you said. You said @RingoJuice had made it up, now you are moving the goalposts. You should probably be squeaky clean yourself if you're going to complain about other people's alleged misinformation. Facts do matter, I agree. Please link to your evidence.

Did I misspeak and say the phone call was 18 minutes?

I guess the 911 call was not as long as the 18 minutes she was fighting back against a sexual assault and he then decided to bash her head in with a rock. You can literally hear loud thuds on the phone call.

And are you stating that Ibarra was not in fact let go by border patrol? If they had detained him, he would never have been free to murder her. In fact there was one more point where they should have detained him too … and they completely failed.

I am livid. So much for safety under Democrats.