Yes it is too early for a post mortem. The fight is not over yet, not by a long way.
But as for how this ideology came to be so successful - I think it was a 'perfect storm' of several factors.
A key factor was Stonewall. After gay marriage was legalised in most of the Western democracies, they should have turned their attention to the rest of the world.
Instead they decided to back the 'trans' idea. Because they had vast amounts of money and needed to do something with it.
As soon as the name Stonewall got attached to this ideology, and the T became lumped in with the LGB, every mainstream ill-informed person, i.e. most of the population, assumed it must be the right thing to do to support the T.
This was particularly apparent with young women, socialised to 'be nice' in all circumstances, and terrified of being thought of as prejudiced.
The Stonewall champions scheme was a money spinner for them, and instrumental in getting the ideology into many big institutions, with ignorant mangers seeing the name Stonewall and assuming this could only be good for their image.
Another factor was misogyny. Once the 'trans rights' bandwagon began to roll, every woman-hating male saw an opportunity. It was a great excuse to verbally abuse women, invade their spaces, and even get violent against women - which is what they love doing.
A third factor was the demise of economic class-based politics on the left, particularly in America. If the professional political "left" is full of wealthy middle class people who don't like high taxes, what is there to distinguish them from the right? the answer is "woke" identity politics. They grabbed it with both hands and quietly dropped all that old fashioned stuff about wealth re-distribution.
How to unpick it all?
The third factor has taken a big blow with the defeat of the Democrats in the US, but Labour are still here in Britain and it is not certain what path they will take.
Stonewall was in a mess (not sure what is going on with them now?), and luckily many organisations are cutting costs, so paying Stonewall for a 'badge' is an easy thing to cut. However, a lot of damage has been done and a lot of people have careers at stake in training and diversity initiatives.
And of course the misogynistic men will be with us to the end of time.
We just have to keep fighting back.