SNP leadership campaign

[RoyalCorgi]

Starting this thread because the new SNP leader is due to be announced on Monday afternoon, sometime after 2pm.

Thought we could have a thread of speculation (who's going to win, what they'll do) followed by reactions after they make the announcement.

I would looove to see the utter meltdown if Kate Forbes wins but sadly Humza will win.

Although he will perpetuate the downward spiral the SNP seem to be on so not all bad...

I don't know. I have a thread on this on Scotsnet (but think there is more traffic here 💪) and the feeling (hope?) is it could still be Forbes. I think whatever happens we are headed for lots of drama. Still if that keeps the politicians from actually doing anything then at least they can't fuck anything else up 😂

Plonking arse down here.

I would never vote SNP but would like Kate Forbes to win as at least she is does not seem to believe in gender identity ideology. I think Useless will win and yes he should be very bad for the SNP's future popularity so some glimmers of a better fitire after the next Scottish Election maybe.

I think Kate has a good chance of winning but am worried she will end up being a disappointment- ie that she backtracks and it ends up being a Forbes/Yousaf alliance rather than a Forbes/Regan one. If she does win I’ll still be nervous until Insee what her cabinet looks like

Would be very interesting to see all the true believers do a complete 180 to stay high up in the party if Forbes does get in. And to see the Greens reaction 😱which I'm sure will be explosive.

Forbes has been captured, has she not?

The only decent candidate is AR.

I hope Ash Regan gets acknowledgement for her contribution and a cabinet position, though I predict the green meanies will stifle that. The genie is however out of the bottle in Scotland, she raised plenty of questions about SNP structure and financing that can't easily disappear now.

Not one of the candidates is 'decent'. It is about what is best for Scotland and Scottish resident women and children in the interim before the next Scottish Election for MSPs.
Ash Regan seems to think she can declare UDI so is a dangerous individual.

What is UDI @wasteoffunds ? [Guessing: Un Democratic Independence?]

Pulls special bench out of pocket

Unilateral Declaration of Independence. Basically an un democratic coup.

Unilateral Declaration of Independence. Very much not within the powers of Holyrood.

https://www.scottishdailyexpress.co.uk/news/politics/snp-leadership-hopeful-ash-regan-29260464

It'll be the horrid humza unfortunately.
I think it's a once horse race tbh?

Ooh, we have cushions now. Fantastic.

The race so far appears to be impossible to call between Forbes and Yousaf.

There's been murmurs of the result being fixed. (In Yousaf's favour).

And the other complicating factors: Single transferable vote. That the FM is voted in by the whole parliament. That the Greens will walk unless its Yousaf, which will bugger the SNP somewhat.

It's all going to be quite tense.

Aah, thanks, my guess wasn't far off then 😂

It's unfortunate that 10,000 members left after the GRR vote - there's a fair chance that most of those would have been pissed off women who might have voted for Forbes rather than Yousaf.

There's an interesting poll here:

https://www.economicsobservatory.com/who-do-polls-suggest-will-be-the-next-first-minister-of-scotland

Forbes is more popular than Yousaf with the electorate at large.

Amongst SNP voters, Forbes and Yousaf are neck and neck.

There's only been one poll of SNP members, which showed Yousaf ahead - but that was near the beginning of the campaign.

If Yousaf doesn't get a clear majority in the first round, they'd have to count Regan's second preferences, most of which would probably go to Forbes. So it might be closer than we expect.

A matter of opinion and hyperbole.

It's all going to be very interesting, and frankly, I don't like politics being Interesting. I want it all to be boring and standard, and just getting Stuff Done.

I think it's too close to call between Forbes and Yousaf.

DH and I were wondering whether Forbes would retain the Finance portfolio if Yousaf wins it; we suspect No.

Pass along the biscuits.

I can't see it being anyone but Humza, given the SNP's devious machinations, but hopefully this whole thing will put the frighteners on the Greens.

It's all going to be very interesting, and frankly, I don't like politics being Interesting. I want it all to be boring and standard, and just getting Stuff Done.

100 %. What you want is utterly Boring Politics.

So much this.

I'd like Ash, but I think it will be Humza.

Ash's take on independence is wrong, mind you.

IMO the outgoing leadership have put their money on Humza, to the point of encouraging the smearing of the women candidates in the press.