Sky News: Starmer will lose the election on day 1 unless he shifts his trans rights position

[SirSamVimesCityWatch]

Apologies if there's already a thread. This appeared last night on the Sky News.

It seems that some grown ups people in the Labour party are finally paying attention.

https://news.sky.com/story/keir-starmer-will-lose-election-campaign-on-day-one-over-his-trans-rights-position-labour-strategists-warn-12841099

[teawamutu]

This is brilliant. I don't know who in Labour is briefing behind the scenes, but they're playing a blinder. Starmer is going to have to make a choice between appearing heartless (to the blue-haired Momentumites) or mindless (to the electorate).

"The history of the world is the history of the triumph of the heartless over the mindless." — Sir Humphrey Appleby

[WarriorN]

I'm close to being grateful for sturgeon and the snp idiocy.

[WarriorN]

Cheers for testing the waters and being hit by a tsunami Nichola!

[HagoftheNorth]

That’s good - but KS needs to realise he’ll have to do a LOT better than “it’s not our priority” if he’s going to counter that insightful Twitter feed quoting half the parliamentary labour party’s views on what a woman is.

Maybe he should try ensuring LWD can have a stand at conference? Letting LRM and friends know publicly that their bullying behaviour isn’t acceptable? Ensuring MP’s like Rosie Duffield can speak at Labour events without fear for their personal safety? Really, this doesn’t represent a very high bar, but is still too difficult atm, apparently

[HagoftheNorth]

Great quote teawamutu 😁

[Clymene]

Too little too late. Unless he gets rid of 90% of the shadow cabinet, I have more fair in my teenagers' telling me they've left the house tidy.

[Hoardasurass]

He's going to have to do a lot more than just unequivocally state that self id is off the table including a commitment to enshrined women's rights to single sex spaces and groups/associations in law by making it an offence not to provide them and make it an offence for any male however he id's to enter them without valid reason such as a medical emergency then when Stammer has done that and ditched all the TRAs and anyone who can't state that a woman is an adult human female I might just consider voting for them but they have a whole lot of work on other stuff too before I could definitely vote for them

[AlisonDonut]

I call Wes Streeting the Witchfinder General in this house.

[GoChasingWaterfalls]

I appreciate that this is a massive issue on Mumsnet but I really think we're in a bubble on this one.

Most voters won't have this issue in their top ten.

A YouGov surgery from last year showed that 24% of people paid it no attention at all and 42 % paid little attention:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/articles-reports/2022/07/20/where-does-british-public-stand-transgender-rights

What's more, other polls consistently have voters primarily focused on other issues and it will be these that win or lose the election:

"In the latest period, we asked adults what they feel are important issues facing the UK today. The most commonly reported issues were:

the cost of living (93%)

the NHS (84%)

the economy (74%)

climate change and the environment (61%)"

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain/22februaryto5march2023#important-issues-facing-the-uk

My guess is that Starmer may lose a few % points over this issue, but overall the bigger problems facing the country, coupled with the mess that is the Tory party, will swing it for him. Polls have had Labour consistently in the high 40s low 50s for months now. It's just a question of how big their majority is going to be.

[musicalfrog]

They're saying they 'need to take the public with them'.

Why wasn't that always the case?

They represent the public after all!

[Thelnebriati]

I go a step further than Hoardasurass;

He's going to have to do a lot more than just unequivocally state that self id is off the table;

• a commitment to enshrine women's rights to the single sex exemptions as outlined in The Equality Act today.
• a commitment to enshrine single sex spaces and groups/associations in law by making it an offence not to provide them, where there is a demand.(1)
• make it an offence for any male however he id's to enter them without valid reason such as a medical emergency.
• Facilities for disabled people should not be neglected or turned over for other purposes.

(1) For example, it has been reported that some DV shelters had beds sat empty in case they were needed by men fleeing domestic violence, while women and children were being turned away in droves. Provision for sex based services do not always need to be mirrored.

[SirSamVimesCityWatch]

I think in 2022 it wasn't anything like as big an issue as it is now. The Isla/Adam Graham case blew the bloody doors off, so to speak. The press have been let loose. People who didn't care or know before, now do.

[DodoPatrol]

enshrined women's rights to single sex spaces and groups/associations in law by making it an offence not to provide them and make it an offence for any male however he id's to enter them without valid reason such as a medical emergency

Do you know, I'd settle for just not prosecuting and pillorying women for pointing out there's a man in there, or for failure to pretend hard enough not to know someone's sex.

Then those who want to 'not see sex', identify as 103 genders etc etc can carry on, but stop trying to make everyone else see the world through their eyes.

[MissLucyEyelesbarrow]

@AlisonDonut

I call Wes Streeting the Witchfinder General in this house.

Yes, he gives off really creepy vibes - and he was part of a secret What's App group to force GC women out of Labour.

[Clymene]

@GoChasingWaterfalls

I appreciate that this is a massive issue on Mumsnet but I really think we're in a bubble on this one.

Most voters won't have this issue in their top ten.

A YouGov surgery from last year showed that 24% of people paid it no attention at all and 42 % paid little attention:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/articles-reports/2022/07/20/where-does-british-public-stand-transgender-rights

What's more, other polls consistently have voters primarily focused on other issues and it will be these that win or lose the election:

"In the latest period, we asked adults what they feel are important issues facing the UK today. The most commonly reported issues were:

the cost of living (93%)

the NHS (84%)

the economy (74%)

climate change and the environment (61%)"

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain/22februaryto5march2023#important-issues-facing-the-uk

My guess is that Starmer may lose a few % points over this issue, but overall the bigger problems facing the country, coupled with the mess that is the Tory party, will swing it for him. Polls have had Labour consistently in the high 40s low 50s for months now. It's just a question of how big their majority is going to be.

And yet weirdly Labour's strategists think it's a massive issue and it just brought down Sturgeon.

[InterestingUsernameTBC]

To those people saying it isn't a big issue for voters I'd like to point out that once you get a TWAW MP talking about the subject they sound absolutely batshit. So all the opposition needs to do is get them talking about it. Once voters hear this nonsense spouted by an MP it will discredit anything else they say. That's why it's so important that Labour get a handle on this issue because if they don't then it will absolutely be exploited in order to destroy them.

[dimorphism]

It's not an issue for people when they don't know. And there have been deliberate attempts to keep the emperor's new clothes batshittery below the radar.

As soon as they do know the vast vast majority are quite keen not to have their daughters end up in this situation and are - frankly - incredulous that things have got to this point : https://www.coventrytelegraph.net/news/coventry-news/coventry-schoolgirl-taken-hospital-after-26418069

They're also keen not to have their kids confused about the reality of biological sex in school (at best, at worst exposed to inappropriate sexual materials from unaccountable third party organisations such as the School of Sexuality Education). Most people are also generally agains the Whites, Dolatowski's and Grahams (to name but a few) in women's prisons - and of course once they're released next to your daughter in the 'women's' swimming pool changing room or so say 'women's' supermarket toilets (where indeed Dolatwoski committed crimes against children in the first place).

And Starmer will have KJK standing against him bringing up these facts at every turn.

[BenCoopersSupportWren]

Hearing “TWAW” politicians talk (or try to) in interviews on the subject is the equivalent of Ed Milliband eating a bacon sandwich.

[dimorphism]

@InterestingUsernameTBC

To those people saying it isn't a big issue for voters I'd like to point out that once you get a TWAW MP talking about the subject they sound absolutely batshit. So all the opposition needs to do is get them talking about it. Once voters hear this nonsense spouted by an MP it will discredit anything else they say. That's why it's so important that Labour get a handle on this issue because if they don't then it will absolutely be exploited in order to destroy them.

Yes, once you see a Labour MP brazenly stating what everyone knows are bare faced lies about biological reality, you tend to question their veracity about everything else (and sanity, quite frankly).

[MissLucyEyelesbarrow]

@GoChasingWaterfalls

I appreciate that this is a massive issue on Mumsnet but I really think we're in a bubble on this one.

Most voters won't have this issue in their top ten.

A YouGov surgery from last year showed that 24% of people paid it no attention at all and 42 % paid little attention:

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/society/articles-reports/2022/07/20/where-does-british-public-stand-transgender-rights

What's more, other polls consistently have voters primarily focused on other issues and it will be these that win or lose the election:

"In the latest period, we asked adults what they feel are important issues facing the UK today. The most commonly reported issues were:

the cost of living (93%)

the NHS (84%)

the economy (74%)

climate change and the environment (61%)"

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/wellbeing/bulletins/publicopinionsandsocialtrendsgreatbritain/22februaryto5march2023#important-issues-facing-the-uk

My guess is that Starmer may lose a few % points over this issue, but overall the bigger problems facing the country, coupled with the mess that is the Tory party, will swing it for him. Polls have had Labour consistently in the high 40s low 50s for months now. It's just a question of how big their majority is going to be.

It's not as simple as that, though.

Voting intention doesn't help Labour: they need that translated into actual votes, and they need those votes distributed across enough constituencies. In the twentieth century, Labour was an alliance between working class union members and left-leaning metropolitan professionals. Over the course of this century, it has shed much of its traditional working class support - hence the loss of the Red Wall - and its vote is becoming more and more concentrated into a few areas. Also, its vote skews young, and under 25s are much less likely to vote than older age groups.

Labour doesn't just need to convince 40ish % of voters (depending on how well smaller parties do)- it needs to win the most constituencies. That is much, much harder, given the current demographics of its support. You see this starkly in the 2019 GE results - there was only an 11.5% vote share difference between the Tories and Labour, but that translated into the Tories having 25% more MPs. The Tories got 44% of the total vote, but they won 56% of all seats in Parliament, whereas Labour got 32% of the total vote and only 31% of seats. Each percentage of the total vote was essentially worth a third more to Tories - in terms of how it translated into seats - than to Labour.

YouGov say Labour have a 19% lead over the Tories as of today, which sounds commanding. But, if we see similar dynamics in the next GE as 2019, this is only a 13% lead in real terms. And that's voting intention. Labour's big other problem is that their voters are disproportionately young, and so less likely to vote, whereas Tory voters are disproportionately old and vote reliably,.

You are also assuming that women's rights issues only influence voters who consciously prioritise women's rights. But Labour's stance also speaks to wider issues of trust and competence. Every time a Labour MP mangles saying what a woman is, or claims that babies are not born with a sex, the public take note.

I think Labour will be the biggest party in the next Parliament, but I am not convinced that they will have an absolute majority. And that is a worry. Many Scots believe that one of the reasons that Nicola Sturgeon got into such dire straits with the GRR Bill was that she had done a deal with the Greens. Given the extreme TWAW stance of the LibDems, the prospect of Lib-Lab voting block is alarming.

[GrimDamnFanjo]

I agree with the comments above.
The reason it's not high on voters minds is because to "normal" people the idea that twaw is so batshit it doesn't compute.
If Starmer doesn't get this sorted now, the Westminster media will hound him throughout the campaign and he'll appear to be either crackers or have misplaced priorities.
And if KJK stands against him, it will turn into an even bigger bin fire.

[Clymene]

@InterestingUsernameTBC

To those people saying it isn't a big issue for voters I'd like to point out that once you get a TWAW MP talking about the subject they sound absolutely batshit. So all the opposition needs to do is get them talking about it. Once voters hear this nonsense spouted by an MP it will discredit anything else they say. That's why it's so important that Labour get a handle on this issue because if they don't then it will absolutely be exploited in order to destroy them.

Exactly. Anyone who saw or heard Rachel Reeves on JHB referring to Adam Graham, the double rapist who calls himself Isla Bryson, as she, will think she's off her rocker.

And while people might hate the tories, Labour aren't offering a credible Algerians.

[Abccde]

I don't imagine that we are at Starmers final position on this.

I do think this will be a major issue in the next election. Tories and the press will ensure it is.

This is the beginning of the change of Labour position.

He is just doing to slowly to try and bring as many in the Labour Party as possible with him.

I am sure he will be delighted if he loses some Momentum members along the way.

[Beamur]

@InterestingUsernameTBC

To those people saying it isn't a big issue for voters I'd like to point out that once you get a TWAW MP talking about the subject they sound absolutely batshit. So all the opposition needs to do is get them talking about it. Once voters hear this nonsense spouted by an MP it will discredit anything else they say. That's why it's so important that Labour get a handle on this issue because if they don't then it will absolutely be exploited in order to destroy them.

This is what I was going to say.
It's not just this issue - which is significant to lots of people but it's actually very easy for a journalist to make an MP look like a complete idiot when they have to justify policies that put rapists into women's prisons and such like.
It rather dents public confidence. Whereas as we saw recently, the Tories have worked out that being able to confidently answer tricky questions like 'what is a woman' rather stops that line of questions.

[corlan]

I completed the Yougov poll asking what voters consider the most important issues facing the UK are. We had to pick a maximum of 3 from a list. Women's rights was not on the list.